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Dūdoriai Plungė

Founded 1947 in Plungė

Babrungo salė, holding 2 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Behind its points

Dūdoriai Plungė's wins trail its points

−1.5 wins

Dūdoriai Plungė's points say about 15 wins in 22 league games. It has 13. The table has been a little unkind.

13Wins so far

14.5Points say

80.4Scored a game

76.7Allowed a game

+3.7Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 22 league games	1 769
Points allowed	1 687
Allowed ÷ scored	0.9536
To the power of 14	0.5145
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.5145)	66.03%
× 22 games played	14.53
Wins the points say	14.5 adds up

Wins so far	13
Difference	−1.5 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Dūdoriai Plungė won 3 and lost 4. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 22. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

A strong attack

110.8

Dūdoriai Plungė score 110.8 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 104.9. That is 2nd of 12.

DUP 110.8

League 104.9

How we counted it

100 × 1 769 points ÷ 1 596 possessions	110.8
League mean, 12 clubs	104.9
Rank, 12 clubs	2nd of 12

Strength

Hot shooting

53.3 %

Dūdoriai Plungė shoot 53.3 % effective. The league shoots 50.0 %. That is 2nd of 12.

DUP 53.3 %

League 50.0 %

How we counted it

Dūdoriai Plungė: (653 + ½ × 243) ÷ 1 454	53.3 %
League mean, 12 clubs	50.0 %
Rank, 12 clubs	2nd of 12

Strength

Safe with the ball

15.8 %

Dūdoriai Plungė give it away on 15.8 % of trips against the league's 16.6 %. Fewer is better: 4th of 12.

DUP 15.8 %

League 16.6 %

How we counted it

Dūdoriai Plungė: 252 ÷ 1 596 possessions	15.8 %
League mean, 12 clubs	16.6 %
Rank, 12 clubs	4th of 12

Best shot-maker

Domas Degutis

#69 · SG

81/153shots

190points

+32.8vs expected

How we counted it

81 made of 153, 28 of them threes	81/153
Points: 2 × 81 + 28	190
His shots are worth (expected)	157.2
Above expected	190 − 157.2 = +32.8 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 2nd of 12

DUP 53.3 %

League 50.0 %

How we counted it

Dūdoriai Plungė: (653 + ½ × 243) ÷ 1 454	53.3 %
League mean, 12 clubs	50.0 %
Rank, 12 clubs	2nd of 12

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 4th of 12

DUP 15.8 %

League 16.6 %

How we counted it

Dūdoriai Plungė: 252 ÷ 1 596 possessions	15.8 %
League mean, 12 clubs	16.6 %
Rank, 12 clubs	4th of 12

Reboundsown misses won back · 9th of 12

DUP 25.1 %

League 27.0 %

How we counted it

Dūdoriai Plungė: 195 ÷ (195 + 583)	25.1 %
League mean, 12 clubs	27.0 %
Rank, 12 clubs	9th of 12

Free throwstries per shot · 8th of 12

DUP 21.5 %

League 22.7 %

How we counted it

Dūdoriai Plungė: 312 tries ÷ 1 454 shots	21.5 %
League mean, 12 clubs	22.7 %
Rank, 12 clubs	8th of 12

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Lucky so far

Your shots have paid off a little

+31.2

Over 9 games Dūdoriai Plungė's shots were worth 571.8 points and they scored 603 from the floor: 3.5 a game better than the league would do from the same shots.

+31.2

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 255 + 93	603
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	571.8
Shot-making	+31.2
A game	+3.47

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 22.

Dūdoriai Plungė
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive40 % of 251 league shots	20	0.80	15.9
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 368	1	0.76	0.8
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 368	4	0.76	3.0
Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 368	1	0.76	0.8
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 203	12	0.69	8.3
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 203	1	0.69	0.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot42 % of 272 league shots	18	0.83	15.0
Mid-range · Pull-up41 % of 471 league shots	44	0.81	35.7
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 603	4	0.83	3.3
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 603	5	0.83	4.1
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 603	1	0.83	0.8
Rim · Drive60 % of 1 052 league shots	85	1.20	102.1
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 1 653	12	1.22	14.6
Rim · Drive · fast break64 % of 367 league shots	30	1.28	38.3
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 1 653	2	1.22	2.4
Rim · Post-up59 % of 215 league shots	14	1.18	16.5
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 287	2	1.23	2.5
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 287	5	1.23	6.2
Rim · Catch and shoot57 % of 209 league shots	24	1.14	27.3
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 58 % of 336	2	1.15	2.3
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 58 % of 336	7	1.15	8.1
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 2 416	9	1.22	11.0
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 2 416	2	1.22	2.4
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 2 416	4	1.22	4.9
Rim · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 2 416	2	1.22	2.4
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 32 % of 3 137	12	0.95	11.4
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 32 % of 3 137	2	0.95	1.9
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 32 % of 3 137	4	0.95	3.8
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 32 % of 3 137	1	0.95	0.9
Three · Catch and shoot32 % of 1 862 league shots	145	0.97	140.9
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance28 % of 343 league shots	20	0.84	16.8
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break32 % of 270 league shots	30	0.96	28.7
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 2 508	3	0.96	2.9
Three · Pull-up30 % of 328 league shots	28	0.90	25.1
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 30 % of 452	3	0.91	2.7
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 30 % of 452	7	0.91	6.4
Three · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 30 % of 452	1	0.91	0.9
Total adds up	567	1.01	571.8

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Where Dūdoriai Plungė shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

631 of 631 shots shown

45.2%

285 of 631 from the floor, 10 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 135 / 215 63% · avg 2.1 ft 73 of the 135 makes assisted league 61% 270pts

MID 43 / 128 34% · avg 14.7 ft 22 of the 43 makes assisted league 38% 86pts

THREE 107 / 288 37% · avg 25.1 ft 101 of the 107 makes assisted league 32% 321pts

285 of 631 from the floor, 677 points, + 83 from the line

The dots cover 10 of 22 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

196 of 285 makes were assisted (69%): 73 + 22 + 101.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 9 games whose streams are stored, of 22 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 22 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Dūdoriai Plungė

35% 20% 45%

League

34% 22% 44%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Dūdoriai Plungė

31% 44% 19%

League

31% 45% 17%

How we counted it

Dūdoriai Plungė: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	173 drives + 35 post-ups + 249 catch and shoot + 110 pull-ups = 567

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Domas Degutis SG 22 y

Strong61–80

Age: 22
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.6
Contract ends: End of season 3

81/153 shots 157.2 expected 190 scored ▲ +32.8

Dominykas Gervė SF 27 y

Solid41–60

Age: 27
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

57/130 shots 131.1 expected 143 scored ▲ +11.9

Teodoras Norvaišas PF 21 y

Solid41–60

Age: 21
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

27/63 shots 64.1 expected 63 scored ▼ −1.1

Mathis Charbonnier PG 21 y

Solid41–60

Age: 21
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 4

33/87 shots 86.1 expected 81 scored ▼ −5.1

A man is listed from 50 shots.