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Duvandžije Vranje

Founded 1963 in Vranje

Dvorana pod Pljačkovicom, holding 6 000

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Behind its points

Duvandžije Vranje's wins trail its points

−2.4 wins

Duvandžije Vranje's points say about 10 wins in 15 league games. It has 8. The table has been a little unkind.

8Wins so far

10.4Points say

87.5Scored a game

82.5Allowed a game

+5.0Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 15 league games	1 312
Points allowed	1 237
Allowed ÷ scored	0.9428
To the power of 14	0.4386
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.4386)	69.51%
× 15 games played	10.43
Wins the points say	10.4 adds up

Wins so far	8
Difference	−2.4 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Duvandžije Vranje won 1 and lost 3. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 15. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

Hot shooting

57.2 %

Duvandžije Vranje shoot 57.2 % effective. The league shoots 53.8 %. That is 2nd of 16.

DUV 57.2 %

League 53.8 %

How we counted it

Duvandžije Vranje: (471 + ½ × 153) ÷ 958	57.2 %
League mean, 16 clubs	53.8 %
Rank, 16 clubs	2nd of 16

Strength

Plenty of trips to the line

30.5

Duvandžije Vranje attempt 30.5 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 26.9, so 2nd of 16.

DUV 30.5 %

League 26.9 %

How we counted it

Duvandžije Vranje: 292 tries ÷ 958 shots	30.5 %
League mean, 16 clubs	26.9 %
Rank, 16 clubs	2nd of 16

Strength

A strong attack

116.1

Duvandžije Vranje score 116.1 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 111.4. That is 4th of 16.

DUV 116.1

League 111.4

How we counted it

100 × 1 312 points ÷ 1 130 possessions	116.1
League mean, 16 clubs	111.4
Rank, 16 clubs	4th of 16

Best shot-maker

Saša Kostadinović

#26 · PG

45/87shots

108points

+12.6vs expected

How we counted it

45 made of 87, 18 of them threes	45/87
Points: 2 × 45 + 18	108
His shots are worth (expected)	95.4
Above expected	108 − 95.4 = +12.6 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 2nd of 16

DUV 57.2 %

League 53.8 %

How we counted it

Duvandžije Vranje: (471 + ½ × 153) ÷ 958	57.2 %
League mean, 16 clubs	53.8 %
Rank, 16 clubs	2nd of 16

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 8th of 16

DUV 17.3 %

League 17.2 %

How we counted it

Duvandžije Vranje: 195 ÷ 1 130 possessions	17.3 %
League mean, 16 clubs	17.2 %
Rank, 16 clubs	8th of 16

Reboundsown misses won back · 11th of 16

DUV 24.1 %

League 26.1 %

How we counted it

Duvandžije Vranje: 116 ÷ (116 + 365)	24.1 %
League mean, 16 clubs	26.1 %
Rank, 16 clubs	11th of 16

Free throwstries per shot · 2nd of 16

DUV 30.5 %

League 26.9 %

How we counted it

Duvandžije Vranje: 292 tries ÷ 958 shots	30.5 %
League mean, 16 clubs	26.9 %
Rank, 16 clubs	2nd of 16

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Lucky so far

Your shots have paid off a little

+17.6

Over 7 games Duvandžije Vranje's shots were worth 486.4 points and they scored 504 from the floor: 2.5 a game better than the league would do from the same shots.

+17.6

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 216 + 72	504
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	486.4
Shot-making	+17.6
A game	+2.52

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 15.

Duvandžije Vranje
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 275	19	0.67	12.7
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 275	2	0.67	1.3
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 37 % of 1 274	10	0.74	7.4
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 37 % of 1 274	1	0.74	0.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot45 % of 204 league shots	16	0.90	14.4
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 42 % of 277	2	0.84	1.7
Mid-range · Pull-up37 % of 418 league shots	30	0.74	22.3
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 552	2	0.72	1.5
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 552	6	0.72	4.4
Rim · Drive63 % of 1 033 league shots	82	1.26	103.4
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 1 613	7	1.28	8.9
Rim · Drive · fast break70 % of 387 league shots	26	1.41	36.6
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 1 613	2	1.28	2.6
Rim · Post-up59 % of 227 league shots	10	1.17	11.7
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 294	1	1.20	1.2
Rim · Post-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 294	1	1.20	1.2
Rim · Catch and shoot67 % of 212 league shots	17	1.33	22.6
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 66 % of 352	6	1.33	8.0
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 66 % of 352	1	1.33	1.3
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 66 % of 352	1	1.33	1.3
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 64 % of 2 435	7	1.27	8.9
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 64 % of 2 435	1	1.27	1.3
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 64 % of 2 435	3	1.27	3.8
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 208	9	1.01	9.1
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 208	3	1.01	3.0
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 208	4	1.01	4.0
Three · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 2 721	1	1.06	1.1
Three · Catch and shoot36 % of 1 535 league shots	107	1.07	114.0
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance37 % of 248 league shots	23	1.11	25.6
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break37 % of 255 league shots	22	1.11	24.3
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 2 067	3	1.08	3.2
Three · Pull-up35 % of 321 league shots	19	1.05	19.9
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 437	2	0.99	2.0
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 437	1	0.99	1.0
Total adds up	447	1.09	486.4

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Where Duvandžije Vranje shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

447 of 447 shots shown

48.3%

216 of 447 from the floor, 7 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 111 / 165 67% · avg 2.2 ft 60 of the 111 makes assisted league 63% 222pts

MID 33 / 88 38% · avg 14.1 ft 18 of the 33 makes assisted league 38% 66pts

THREE 72 / 194 37% · avg 25.4 ft 68 of the 72 makes assisted league 35% 216pts

216 of 447 from the floor, 504 points, + 93 from the line

The dots cover 7 of 15 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

146 of 216 makes were assisted (68%): 60 + 18 + 68.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 7 games whose streams are stored, of 15 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 15 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Duvandžije Vranje

37% 20% 43%

League

38% 20% 42%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Duvandžije Vranje

34% 44% 16%

League

33% 42% 18%

How we counted it

Duvandžije Vranje: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	154 drives + 24 post-ups + 198 catch and shoot + 71 pull-ups = 447

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Saša Kostadinović Injured PG 27 y

Strong61–80

Age: 27
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

45/87 shots 95.4 expected 108 scored ▲ +12.6

Trifun Šćekić SG 22 y

Strong61–80

Age: 22
Potential: Elite (81–99)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

50/99 shots 106.1 expected 118 scored ▲ +11.9

Miodrag Bayer SF 20 y

Strong61–80

Age: 20
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 3

37/86 shots 94.0 expected 86 scored ▼ −8.0

A man is listed from 50 shots.