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Elaiones Amfissa

Founded 1975 in Amfissa

Gymnastirio tou Kastrou Salonon, holding 1 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Ahead of its points

Elaiones Amfissa's wins run ahead of its points

+1.7 wins

Elaiones Amfissa's points say about 5 wins in 13 league games. It has 7. The table has been a little kind.

7Wins so far

5.3Points say

73.7Scored a game

75.8Allowed a game

−2.1Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 13 league games	958
Points allowed	985
Allowed ÷ scored	1.0282
To the power of 14	1.4757
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 1.4757)	40.39%
× 13 games played	5.25
Wins the points say	5.3 adds up

Wins so far	7
Difference	+1.7 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Elaiones Amfissa won 4 and lost 0. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 13. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

Safe with the ball

15.4 %

Elaiones Amfissa give it away on 15.4 % of trips against the league's 16.7 %. Fewer is better: 1st of 14.

ELA 15.4 %

League 16.7 %

How we counted it

Elaiones Amfissa: 148 ÷ 959 possessions	15.4 %
League mean, 14 clubs	16.7 %
Rank, 14 clubs	1st of 14

Weakness

A thin attack

99.9

Elaiones Amfissa score 99.9 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 104.0. That is 13th of 14.

ELA 99.9

League 104.0

How we counted it

100 × 958 points ÷ 959 possessions	99.9
League mean, 14 clubs	104.0
Rank, 14 clubs	13th of 14

Weakness

Cold shooting

46.1 %

Elaiones Amfissa shoot 46.1 % effective. The league shoots 50.3 %. That is 13th of 14.

ELA 46.1 %

League 50.3 %

How we counted it

Elaiones Amfissa: (364 + ½ × 111) ÷ 910	46.1 %
League mean, 14 clubs	50.3 %
Rank, 14 clubs	13th of 14

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 13th of 14

ELA 46.1 %

League 50.3 %

How we counted it

Elaiones Amfissa: (364 + ½ × 111) ÷ 910	46.1 %
League mean, 14 clubs	50.3 %
Rank, 14 clubs	13th of 14

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 1st of 14

ELA 15.4 %

League 16.7 %

How we counted it

Elaiones Amfissa: 148 ÷ 959 possessions	15.4 %
League mean, 14 clubs	16.7 %
Rank, 14 clubs	1st of 14

Reboundsown misses won back · 2nd of 14

ELA 29.6 %

League 26.0 %

How we counted it

Elaiones Amfissa: 150 ÷ (150 + 356)	29.6 %
League mean, 14 clubs	26.0 %
Rank, 14 clubs	2nd of 14

Free throwstries per shot · 12th of 14

ELA 17.9 %

League 22.7 %

How we counted it

Elaiones Amfissa: 163 tries ÷ 910 shots	17.9 %
League mean, 14 clubs	22.7 %
Rank, 14 clubs	12th of 14

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Unlucky so far

Your shots have not paid off at all

−66.4

Over 6 games Elaiones Amfissa's shots were worth 398.4 points and they scored 332 from the floor: 11.1 a game worse than the league would do from the same shots.

−66.4

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 144 + 44	332
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	398.4
Shot-making	−66.4
A game	−11.07

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 13.

Elaiones Amfissa
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive40 % of 215 league shots	16	0.80	12.8
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 306	4	0.78	3.1
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 306	4	0.78	3.1
Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 306	1	0.78	0.8
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 39 % of 1 263	5	0.77	3.9
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 39 % of 1 263	1	0.77	0.8
Mid-range · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 238	7	0.79	5.5
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 238	2	0.79	1.6
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 238	2	0.79	1.6
Mid-range · Pull-up36 % of 411 league shots	31	0.73	22.5
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 568	4	0.76	3.0
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 568	7	0.76	5.3
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 568	1	0.76	0.8
Rim · Drive60 % of 887 league shots	62	1.20	74.4
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 1 352	11	1.21	13.3
Rim · Drive · fast break58 % of 284 league shots	22	1.17	25.7
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 1 352	4	1.21	4.8
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 51 % of 232	12	1.02	12.2
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 51 % of 232	1	1.02	1.0
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 51 % of 232	4	1.02	4.1
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 231	9	1.23	11.1
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 231	5	1.23	6.1
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 231	3	1.23	3.7
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 231	1	1.23	1.2
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 908	3	1.19	3.6
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 908	2	1.19	2.4
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 32 % of 2 235	4	0.97	3.9
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 32 % of 2 235	2	0.97	1.9
Three · Catch and shoot31 % of 1 284 league shots	106	0.94	99.3
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance31 % of 221 league shots	23	0.92	21.2
Three · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 1 719	17	0.97	16.4
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 1 719	1	0.97	1.0
Three · Pull-up32 % of 280 league shots	18	0.96	17.4
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 382	3	0.99	3.0
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 382	6	0.99	5.9
Total adds up	404	0.99	398.4

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Where Elaiones Amfissa shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

404 of 404 shots shown

35.6%

144 of 404 from the floor, 6 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 74 / 139 53% · avg 1.9 ft 45 of the 74 makes assisted league 60% 148pts

MID 26 / 85 31% · avg 14.7 ft 10 of the 26 makes assisted league 38% 52pts

THREE 44 / 180 24% · avg 25.1 ft 39 of the 44 makes assisted league 32% 132pts

144 of 404 from the floor, 332 points, + 52 from the line

The dots cover 6 of 13 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

94 of 144 makes were assisted (65%): 45 + 10 + 39.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 6 games whose streams are stored, of 13 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 13 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Elaiones Amfissa

34% 21% 45%

League

35% 23% 41%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Elaiones Amfissa

32% 44% 19%

League

33% 40% 19%

How we counted it

Elaiones Amfissa: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	130 drives + 23 post-ups + 176 catch and shoot + 75 pull-ups = 404

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Filippos Šarić Injured SG 29 y

Solid41–60

Age: 29
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

33/78 shots 77.0 expected 73 scored ▼ −4.0

Loukas Lesjak SF 29 y

Solid41–60

Age: 29
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: -0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

19/56 shots 54.2 expected 48 scored ▼ −6.2

Sabino Esteban SG 23 y

Solid41–60

Age: 23
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: -0.4
Contract ends: End of season 2

17/53 shots 52.4 expected 40 scored ▼ −12.4

Telemachos Dobrosavljević PG 26 y

Strong61–80

Age: 26
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

31/91 shots 92.6 expected 71 scored ▼ −21.6

A man is listed from 50 shots.