Manage a club, start free

Ensaimadas San Pedro

Founded 1941 in San Pedro

Gimnasio de la Vuelta de Obligado, holding 2 000

⁠

Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

See all terms

Where the points say

Ensaimadas San Pedro's wins match its points

−0.2 wins

Ensaimadas San Pedro's points say about 10 wins in 22 league games. It has 10. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

10Wins so far

10.2Points say

80.6Scored a game

81.5Allowed a game

−0.9Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 22 league games	1 773
Points allowed	1 792
Allowed ÷ scored	1.0107
To the power of 14	1.1609
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 1.1609)	46.28%
× 22 games played	10.18
Wins the points say	10.2 adds up

Wins so far	10
Difference	−0.2 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Ensaimadas San Pedro won 2 and lost 1. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 22. It is final when the season closes.

⁠

The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

See all terms

Weakness

A leaky defence

110.9

Ensaimadas San Pedro let in 110.9 per 100 trips against the league's 106.5. Lower is better: 12th of 12.

ESP 110.9

League 106.5

How we counted it

100 × 1 792 allowed ÷ 1 616 possessions	110.9
League mean, 12 clubs	106.5
Rank, 12 clubs	12th of 12

Strength

Hot shooting

53.4 %

Ensaimadas San Pedro shoot 53.4 % effective. The league shoots 51.6 %. That is 1st of 12.

ESP 53.4 %

League 51.6 %

How we counted it

Ensaimadas San Pedro: (653 + ½ × 202) ÷ 1 411	53.4 %
League mean, 12 clubs	51.6 %
Rank, 12 clubs	1st of 12

Strength

Plenty of trips to the line

24.7

Ensaimadas San Pedro attempt 24.7 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 23.0, so 3rd of 12.

ESP 24.7 %

League 23.0 %

How we counted it

Ensaimadas San Pedro: 348 tries ÷ 1 411 shots	24.7 %
League mean, 12 clubs	23.0 %
Rank, 12 clubs	3rd of 12

Best shot-maker

Mariano Terra

#59 · SG

95/185shots

220points

+35.2vs expected

How we counted it

95 made of 185, 30 of them threes	95/185
Points: 2 × 95 + 30	220
His shots are worth (expected)	184.8
Above expected	220 − 184.8 = +35.2 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 1st of 12

ESP 53.4 %

League 51.6 %

How we counted it

Ensaimadas San Pedro: (653 + ½ × 202) ÷ 1 411	53.4 %
League mean, 12 clubs	51.6 %
Rank, 12 clubs	1st of 12

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 9th of 12

ESP 17.2 %

League 16.7 %

How we counted it

Ensaimadas San Pedro: 280 ÷ 1 625 possessions	17.2 %
League mean, 12 clubs	16.7 %
Rank, 12 clubs	9th of 12

Reboundsown misses won back · 9th of 12

ESP 25.3 %

League 26.0 %

How we counted it

Ensaimadas San Pedro: 189 ÷ (189 + 559)	25.3 %
League mean, 12 clubs	26.0 %
Rank, 12 clubs	9th of 12

Free throwstries per shot · 3rd of 12

ESP 24.7 %

League 23.0 %

How we counted it

Ensaimadas San Pedro: 348 tries ÷ 1 411 shots	24.7 %
League mean, 12 clubs	23.0 %
Rank, 12 clubs	3rd of 12

⁠

Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

See all terms

As expected

Right on what the shots are worth

+0.3

Over 9 games Ensaimadas San Pedro's shots were worth 576.7 points and they scored 577 from the floor: 0.0 a game in line with what than the league would do from the same shots.

+0.3

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 251 + 75	577
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	576.7
Shot-making	+0.3
A game	+0.03

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 22.

Ensaimadas San Pedro
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive40 % of 275 league shots	26	0.79	20.6
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 380	2	0.83	1.7
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 380	4	0.83	3.3
Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 380	1	0.83	0.8
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 219	12	0.74	8.9
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 219	4	0.74	3.0
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 219	1	0.74	0.7
Mid-range · Post-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 219	1	0.74	0.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot36 % of 245 league shots	22	0.72	15.8
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 343	5	0.73	3.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 343	8	0.73	5.9
Mid-range · Pull-up40 % of 478 league shots	45	0.79	35.6
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 644	7	0.79	5.5
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 644	4	0.79	3.2
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 644	3	0.79	2.4
Rim · Drive61 % of 1 158 league shots	93	1.22	113.1
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 1 732	18	1.21	21.8
Rim · Drive · fast break61 % of 357 league shots	21	1.21	25.4
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 1 732	3	1.21	3.6
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 237	15	1.21	18.1
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 237	7	1.21	8.5
Rim · Post-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 237	1	1.21	1.2
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 66 % of 309	16	1.31	21.0
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 66 % of 309	3	1.31	3.9
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 66 % of 309	4	1.31	5.3
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 66 % of 309	3	1.31	3.9
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 2 399	6	1.23	7.4
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 2 399	1	1.23	1.2
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 2 399	3	1.23	3.7
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 34 % of 3 003	11	1.02	11.2
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 34 % of 3 003	1	1.02	1.0
Three · Catch and shoot35 % of 1 797 league shots	151	1.04	157.1
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance30 % of 272 league shots	14	0.90	12.7
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break34 % of 294 league shots	23	1.01	23.2
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 2 404	4	1.03	4.1
Three · Pull-up28 % of 309 league shots	16	0.85	13.7
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 402	2	0.95	1.9
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 402	2	0.95	1.9
Total adds up	563	1.02	576.7

⁠

Where Ensaimadas San Pedro shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

See all terms

Every shot this season

628 of 628 shots shown

45.4%

285 of 628 from the floor, 10 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 137 / 220 62% · avg 2.0 ft 83 of the 137 makes assisted league 60% 274pts

MID 66 / 160 41% · avg 14.6 ft 26 of the 66 makes assisted league 39% 132pts

THREE 82 / 248 33% · avg 25.2 ft 71 of the 82 makes assisted league 34% 246pts

285 of 628 from the floor, 652 points, + 126 from the line

The dots cover 10 of 22 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

180 of 285 makes were assisted (63%): 83 + 26 + 71.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 9 games whose streams are stored, of 22 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 22 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Ensaimadas San Pedro

34% 26% 40%

League

34% 23% 43%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Ensaimadas San Pedro

32% 45% 16%

League

33% 44% 17%

How we counted it

Ensaimadas San Pedro: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	180 drives + 41 post-ups + 253 catch and shoot + 89 pull-ups = 563

⁠

Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

See all terms

Mariano Terra SG 21 y

Strong61–80

Age: 21
Potential: Elite (81–99)
Form: 0.7
Contract ends: End of season 4

95/185 shots 184.8 expected 220 scored ▲ +35.2

Bernardo Crespo SF 23 y

Solid41–60

Age: 23
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

23/51 shots 50.9 expected 56 scored ▲ +5.1

Jesús Casanova PG 20 y

Solid41–60

Age: 20
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

33/67 shots 69.4 expected 73 scored ▲ +3.6

Dylan Lopes SF 29 y

Solid41–60

Age: 29
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: -0.4
Contract ends: End of season 3

28/65 shots 71.2 expected 65 scored ▼ −6.2

Aaron Delgado PF 34 y

Solid41–60

Age: 34
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.1
Contract ends: End of season 5

21/57 shots 60.0 expected 48 scored ▼ −12.0

A man is listed from 50 shots.