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Fächer Karlsruhe

Founded 1975 in Karlsruhe

Schlossgarten-Halle, holding 8 000

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Fächer Karlsruhe's wins match its points

−0.6 wins

Fächer Karlsruhe's points say about 10 wins in 17 league games. It has 9. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

9Wins so far

9.6Points say

88.6Scored a game

86.9Allowed a game

+1.6Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 17 league games	1 506
Points allowed	1 478
Allowed ÷ scored	0.9814
To the power of 14	0.7689
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.7689)	56.53%
× 17 games played	9.61
Wins the points say	9.6 adds up

Wins so far	9
Difference	−0.6 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Fächer Karlsruhe won 1 and lost 3. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 17. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

Strong on the glass

28.9 %

Fächer Karlsruhe win back 28.9 % of their misses. The league wins back 27.0 %. That is 3rd of 18.

FKA 28.9 %

League 27.0 %

How we counted it

Fächer Karlsruhe: 157 ÷ (157 + 387)	28.9 %
League mean, 18 clubs	27.0 %
Rank, 18 clubs	3rd of 18

Strength

A strong attack

116.2

Fächer Karlsruhe score 116.2 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 114.2. That is 5th of 18.

FKA 116.2

League 114.2

How we counted it

100 × 1 506 points ÷ 1 296 possessions	116.2
League mean, 18 clubs	114.2
Rank, 18 clubs	5th of 18

Weakness

A leaky defence

114.0

Fächer Karlsruhe let in 114.0 per 100 trips against the league's 114.2. Lower is better: 10th of 18.

FKA 114.0

League 114.2

How we counted it

100 × 1 478 allowed ÷ 1 296 possessions	114.0
League mean, 18 clubs	114.2
Rank, 18 clubs	10th of 18

Best shot-maker

Rubens Contreras

#59 · SG

62/114shots

147points

+23.3vs expected

How we counted it

62 made of 114, 23 of them threes	62/114
Points: 2 × 62 + 23	147
His shots are worth (expected)	123.7
Above expected	147 − 123.7 = +23.3 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 9th of 18

FKA 56.1 %

League 55.5 %

How we counted it

Fächer Karlsruhe: (531 + ½ × 174) ÷ 1 101	56.1 %
League mean, 18 clubs	55.5 %
Rank, 18 clubs	9th of 18

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 9th of 18

FKA 17.8 %

League 18.3 %

How we counted it

Fächer Karlsruhe: 231 ÷ 1 296 possessions	17.8 %
League mean, 18 clubs	18.3 %
Rank, 18 clubs	9th of 18

Reboundsown misses won back · 3rd of 18

FKA 28.9 %

League 27.0 %

How we counted it

Fächer Karlsruhe: 157 ÷ (157 + 387)	28.9 %
League mean, 18 clubs	27.0 %
Rank, 18 clubs	3rd of 18

Free throwstries per shot · 10th of 18

FKA 30.6 %

League 30.6 %

How we counted it

Fächer Karlsruhe: 337 tries ÷ 1 101 shots	30.6 %
League mean, 18 clubs	30.6 %
Rank, 18 clubs	10th of 18

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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As expected

Right on what the shots are worth

−3.4

Over 8 games Fächer Karlsruhe's shots were worth 578.4 points and they scored 575 from the floor: 0.4 a game in line with what than the league would do from the same shots.

−3.4

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 246 + 83	575
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	578.4
Shot-making	−3.4
A game	−0.43

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 17.

Fächer Karlsruhe
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive42 % of 244 league shots	13	0.84	10.9
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 395	4	0.86	3.5
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 395	7	0.86	6.0
Mid-range · Post-up43 % of 231 league shots	14	0.86	12.0
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 45 % of 281	2	0.90	1.8
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 45 % of 281	1	0.90	0.9
Mid-range · Catch and shoot43 % of 265 league shots	13	0.87	11.3
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 362	6	0.86	5.1
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 362	2	0.86	1.7
Mid-range · Pull-up46 % of 558 league shots	38	0.91	34.7
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 45 % of 761	2	0.90	1.8
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 45 % of 761	4	0.90	3.6
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 45 % of 761	1	0.90	0.9
Rim · Drive59 % of 1 373 league shots	80	1.18	94.5
Rim · Drive · second chance64 % of 203 league shots	5	1.27	6.4
Rim · Drive · fast break66 % of 501 league shots	29	1.31	38.1
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 2 150	2	1.23	2.5
Rim · Post-up60 % of 340 league shots	20	1.20	24.0
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 436	4	1.24	5.0
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 436	3	1.24	3.7
Rim · Post-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 436	1	1.24	1.2
Rim · Catch and shoot63 % of 390 league shots	20	1.26	25.2
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 605	8	1.27	10.1
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 605	12	1.27	15.2
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 605	2	1.27	2.5
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 241	11	1.24	13.6
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 241	2	1.24	2.5
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 241	3	1.24	3.7
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 282	10	1.16	11.6
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 282	4	1.16	4.6
Three · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 282	1	1.16	1.2
Three · Catch and shoot35 % of 2 145 league shots	112	1.04	116.1
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance33 % of 336 league shots	24	0.99	23.8
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break37 % of 382 league shots	26	1.12	29.2
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 2 922	3	1.04	3.1
Three · Pull-up38 % of 451 league shots	30	1.15	34.5
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 611	5	1.08	5.4
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 611	4	1.08	4.3
Three · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 611	2	1.08	2.2
Total adds up	530	1.09	578.4

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Where Fächer Karlsruhe shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

530 of 530 shots shown

46.4%

246 of 530 from the floor, 8 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 123 / 202 61% · avg 2.0 ft 81 of the 123 makes assisted league 63% 246pts

MID 40 / 107 37% · avg 14.2 ft 19 of the 40 makes assisted league 44% 80pts

THREE 83 / 221 38% · avg 25.1 ft 73 of the 83 makes assisted league 36% 249pts

246 of 530 from the floor, 575 points, + 125 from the line

The dots cover 8 of 17 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

173 of 246 makes were assisted (70%): 81 + 19 + 73.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 8 games whose streams are stored, of 17 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 17 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Fächer Karlsruhe

38% 20% 42%

League

38% 20% 42%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Fächer Karlsruhe

29% 8% 43% 19%

League

31% 8% 43% 18%

How we counted it

Fächer Karlsruhe: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	155 drives + 45 post-ups + 228 catch and shoot + 102 pull-ups = 530

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Rubens Contreras SG 25 y

Strong61–80

Age: 25
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 3

62/114 shots 123.7 expected 147 scored ▲ +23.3

Lazaros Novaković PG 34 y

Strong61–80

Age: 34
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.2
Contract ends: End of season 4

33/73 shots 77.3 expected 78 scored ▲ +0.7

Kenneth Fletcher PF 26 y

Strong61–80

Age: 26
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

33/83 shots 90.9 expected 76 scored ▼ −14.9

Jaka Vipotnik SF 28 y

Strong61–80

Age: 28
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

50/122 shots 134.1 expected 117 scored ▼ −17.1

A man is listed from 50 shots.