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Fährleute Bonn

Founded 1952 in Bonn

Rheinauen-Halle, holding 7 000

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Fährleute Bonn's wins match its points

+0.1 wins

Fährleute Bonn's points say about 12 wins in 17 league games. It has 12. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

12Wins so far

11.9Points say

86.5Scored a game

81.5Allowed a game

+5.0Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 17 league games	1 470
Points allowed	1 385
Allowed ÷ scored	0.9422
To the power of 14	0.4344
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.4344)	69.72%
× 17 games played	11.85
Wins the points say	11.9 adds up

Wins so far	12
Difference	+0.1 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Fährleute Bonn won 4 and lost 1. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 17. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

Plenty of trips to the line

33.8

Fährleute Bonn attempt 33.8 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 27.9, so 2nd of 18.

FLB 33.8 %

League 27.9 %

How we counted it

Fährleute Bonn: 361 tries ÷ 1 067 shots	33.8 %
League mean, 18 clubs	27.9 %
Rank, 18 clubs	2nd of 18

Strength

A strong attack

115.2

Fährleute Bonn score 115.2 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 109.1. That is 3rd of 18.

FLB 115.2

League 109.1

How we counted it

100 × 1 470 points ÷ 1 276 possessions	115.2
League mean, 18 clubs	109.1
Rank, 18 clubs	3rd of 18

Strength

Hot shooting

55.7 %

Fährleute Bonn shoot 55.7 % effective. The league shoots 53.5 %. That is 3rd of 18.

FLB 55.7 %

League 53.5 %

How we counted it

Fährleute Bonn: (530 + ½ × 129) ÷ 1 067	55.7 %
League mean, 18 clubs	53.5 %
Rank, 18 clubs	3rd of 18

Best shot-maker

Pelayo Erhabor

#71 · SG

76/115shots

168points

+37.7vs expected

How we counted it

76 made of 115, 16 of them threes	76/115
Points: 2 × 76 + 16	168
His shots are worth (expected)	130.3
Above expected	168 − 130.3 = +37.7 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 3rd of 18

FLB 55.7 %

League 53.5 %

How we counted it

Fährleute Bonn: (530 + ½ × 129) ÷ 1 067	55.7 %
League mean, 18 clubs	53.5 %
Rank, 18 clubs	3rd of 18

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 11th of 18

FLB 18.8 %

League 18.3 %

How we counted it

Fährleute Bonn: 240 ÷ 1 276 possessions	18.8 %
League mean, 18 clubs	18.3 %
Rank, 18 clubs	11th of 18

Reboundsown misses won back · 6th of 18

FLB 28.8 %

League 26.0 %

How we counted it

Fährleute Bonn: 151 ÷ (151 + 374)	28.8 %
League mean, 18 clubs	26.0 %
Rank, 18 clubs	6th of 18

Free throwstries per shot · 2nd of 18

FLB 33.8 %

League 27.9 %

How we counted it

Fährleute Bonn: 361 tries ÷ 1 067 shots	33.8 %
League mean, 18 clubs	27.9 %
Rank, 18 clubs	2nd of 18

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Lucky so far

Your shots have paid off a little

+25.1

Over 7 games Fährleute Bonn's shots were worth 460.9 points and they scored 486 from the floor: 3.6 a game better than the league would do from the same shots.

+25.1

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 220 + 46	486
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	460.9
Shot-making	+25.1
A game	+3.59

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 17.

Fährleute Bonn
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive46 % of 263 league shots	12	0.92	11.0
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 44 % of 392	1	0.88	0.9
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 44 % of 392	7	0.88	6.1
Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 44 % of 392	1	0.88	0.9
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 248	12	0.79	9.5
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 248	2	0.79	1.6
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 248	1	0.79	0.8
Mid-range · Catch and shoot45 % of 220 league shots	12	0.90	10.8
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 45 % of 317	3	0.90	2.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 45 % of 317	2	0.90	1.8
Mid-range · Pull-up36 % of 574 league shots	25	0.72	17.9
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 754	7	0.75	5.2
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 754	3	0.75	2.2
Rim · Drive60 % of 1 290 league shots	82	1.21	99.2
Rim · Drive · second chance65 % of 200 league shots	9	1.30	11.7
Rim · Drive · fast break66 % of 434 league shots	26	1.32	34.3
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 1 991	4	1.24	5.0
Rim · Post-up62 % of 267 league shots	11	1.24	13.7
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 347	5	1.23	6.1
Rim · Catch and shoot59 % of 300 league shots	23	1.19	27.3
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 472	1	1.28	1.3
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 472	7	1.28	8.9
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 472	1	1.28	1.3
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 62 % of 2 992	9	1.24	11.2
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 62 % of 2 992	2	1.24	2.5
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 62 % of 2 992	5	1.24	6.2
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 215	7	1.19	8.3
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 215	2	1.19	2.4
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 215	3	1.19	3.6
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 36 % of 3 326	1	1.09	1.1
Three · Catch and shoot38 % of 1 883 league shots	78	1.13	88.0
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance40 % of 272 league shots	7	1.20	8.4
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break35 % of 331 league shots	14	1.06	14.8
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 2 533	2	1.12	2.2
Three · Pull-up32 % of 400 league shots	24	0.95	22.7
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 550	6	0.93	5.6
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 550	4	0.93	3.7
Total adds up	421	1.09	460.9

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Where Fährleute Bonn shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

484 of 484 shots shown

52.1%

252 of 484 from the floor, 8 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 148 / 209 71% · avg 2.0 ft 76 of the 148 makes assisted league 62% 296pts

MID 50 / 101 50% · avg 14.3 ft 21 of the 50 makes assisted league 39% 100pts

THREE 54 / 174 31% · avg 25.4 ft 48 of the 54 makes assisted league 35% 162pts

252 of 484 from the floor, 558 points, + 135 from the line

The dots cover 8 of 17 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

145 of 252 makes were assisted (58%): 76 + 21 + 48.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 7 games whose streams are stored, of 17 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 17 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Fährleute Bonn

44% 21% 35%

League

37% 21% 41%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Fährleute Bonn

37% 36% 20%

League

32% 41% 19%

How we counted it

Fährleute Bonn: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	154 drives + 32 post-ups + 150 catch and shoot + 85 pull-ups = 421

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Pelayo Erhabor SG 24 y

Strong61–80

Age: 24
Potential: Elite (81–99)
Form: 0.7
Contract ends: End of season 3

76/115 shots 130.3 expected 168 scored ▲ +37.7

Günter Gerber PG 29 y

Strong61–80

Age: 29
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

30/72 shots 79.6 expected 69 scored ▼ −10.6

A man is listed from 50 shots.