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Faroi Alexandroupoli

Founded 1983 in Alexandroupoli

Gymnastirio tou Evrou, holding 8 000

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Faroi Alexandroupoli's wins match its points

+0.2 wins

Faroi Alexandroupoli's points say about 5 wins in 22 league games. It has 5. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

5Wins so far

4.8Points say

79.4Scored a game

87.0Allowed a game

−7.6Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 22 league games	1 746
Points allowed	1 914
Allowed ÷ scored	1.0962
To the power of 14	3.6188
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 3.6188)	21.65%
× 22 games played	4.76
Wins the points say	4.8 adds up

Wins so far	5
Difference	+0.2 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Faroi Alexandroupoli won 3 and lost 2. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 22. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Weakness

A thin attack

103.9

Faroi Alexandroupoli score 103.9 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 112.8. That is 12th of 12.

FAA 103.9

League 112.8

How we counted it

100 × 1 746 points ÷ 1 680 possessions	103.9
League mean, 12 clubs	112.8
Rank, 12 clubs	12th of 12

Weakness

Cold shooting

51.0 %

Faroi Alexandroupoli shoot 51.0 % effective. The league shoots 54.7 %. That is 12th of 12.

FAA 51.0 %

League 54.7 %

How we counted it

Faroi Alexandroupoli: (617 + ½ × 187) ÷ 1 394	51.0 %
League mean, 12 clubs	54.7 %
Rank, 12 clubs	12th of 12

Weakness

Careless with the ball

20.3 %

Faroi Alexandroupoli give it away on 20.3 % of trips against the league's 18.5 %. Fewer is better: 12th of 12.

FAA 20.3 %

League 18.5 %

How we counted it

Faroi Alexandroupoli: 341 ÷ 1 680 possessions	20.3 %
League mean, 12 clubs	18.5 %
Rank, 12 clubs	12th of 12

Best shot-maker

Arthur Lefevre

#17 · PG

63/120shots

142points

+13.0vs expected

How we counted it

63 made of 120, 16 of them threes	63/120
Points: 2 × 63 + 16	142
His shots are worth (expected)	129.0
Above expected	142 − 129.0 = +13.0 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 12th of 12

FAA 51.0 %

League 54.7 %

How we counted it

Faroi Alexandroupoli: (617 + ½ × 187) ÷ 1 394	51.0 %
League mean, 12 clubs	54.7 %
Rank, 12 clubs	12th of 12

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 12th of 12

FAA 20.3 %

League 18.5 %

How we counted it

Faroi Alexandroupoli: 341 ÷ 1 680 possessions	20.3 %
League mean, 12 clubs	18.5 %
Rank, 12 clubs	12th of 12

Reboundsown misses won back · 9th of 12

FAA 26.4 %

League 27.4 %

How we counted it

Faroi Alexandroupoli: 198 ÷ (198 + 551)	26.4 %
League mean, 12 clubs	27.4 %
Rank, 12 clubs	9th of 12

Free throwstries per shot · 9th of 12

FAA 29.1 %

League 31.1 %

How we counted it

Faroi Alexandroupoli: 405 tries ÷ 1 394 shots	29.1 %
League mean, 12 clubs	31.1 %
Rank, 12 clubs	9th of 12

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Unlucky so far

Your shots have not paid off

−32.6

Over 11 games Faroi Alexandroupoli's shots were worth 737.6 points and they scored 705 from the floor: 3.0 a game worse than the league would do from the same shots.

−32.6

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 308 + 89	705
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	737.6
Shot-making	−32.6
A game	−2.96

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 22.

Faroi Alexandroupoli
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive45 % of 257 league shots	23	0.89	20.6
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 44 % of 393	3	0.89	2.7
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 44 % of 393	6	0.89	5.3
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 46 % of 229	20	0.92	18.3
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 46 % of 229	2	0.92	1.8
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 46 % of 229	4	0.92	3.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot38 % of 247 league shots	18	0.75	13.6
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 339	5	0.76	3.8
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 339	4	0.76	3.0
Mid-range · Pull-up38 % of 541 league shots	54	0.76	41.1
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 745	10	0.78	7.8
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 745	2	0.78	1.6
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 745	1	0.78	0.8
Rim · Drive62 % of 1 214 league shots	103	1.24	127.6
Rim · Drive · second chance64 % of 201 league shots	16	1.28	20.5
Rim · Drive · fast break65 % of 470 league shots	39	1.30	50.8
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 1 960	2	1.25	2.5
Rim · Post-up63 % of 352 league shots	41	1.25	51.2
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 414	1	1.24	1.2
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 414	5	1.24	6.2
Rim · Post-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 414	1	1.24	1.2
Rim · Catch and shoot62 % of 325 league shots	23	1.25	28.7
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 532	3	1.28	3.8
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 532	8	1.28	10.3
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 215	6	1.25	7.5
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 275	9	1.22	11.0
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 275	5	1.22	6.1
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 275	4	1.22	4.9
Three · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 275	1	1.22	1.2
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 3 463	2	1.06	2.1
Three · Catch and shoot36 % of 1 815 league shots	159	1.07	170.6
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance32 % of 326 league shots	25	0.97	24.2
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break37 % of 367 league shots	26	1.11	28.9
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 2 550	4	1.06	4.3
Three · Pull-up31 % of 435 league shots	35	0.92	32.3
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 611	9	0.96	8.7
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 611	8	0.96	7.7
Total adds up	687	1.07	737.6

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Where Faroi Alexandroupoli shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

687 of 687 shots shown

44.8%

308 of 687 from the floor, 11 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 150 / 248 61% · avg 1.9 ft 87 of the 150 makes assisted league 63% 300pts

MID 69 / 152 45% · avg 14.3 ft 31 of the 69 makes assisted league 41% 138pts

THREE 89 / 287 31% · avg 25.5 ft 80 of the 89 makes assisted league 36% 267pts

308 of 687 from the floor, 705 points, + 159 from the line

The dots cover 11 of 22 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

198 of 308 makes were assisted (64%): 87 + 31 + 80.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 11 games whose streams are stored, of 22 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 22 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Faroi Alexandroupoli

36% 22% 42%

League

38% 21% 42%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Faroi Alexandroupoli

31% 11% 40% 18%

League

32% 8% 41% 19%

Faroi Alexandroupoli lean on post-ups: 11.1 % of its shots against the league's 8.1 %.

How we counted it

Faroi Alexandroupoli: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	211 drives + 76 post-ups + 275 catch and shoot + 125 pull-ups = 687

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Arthur Lefevre PG 19 y

Strong61–80

Age: 19
Potential: Elite (81–99)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 2

63/120 shots 129.0 expected 142 scored ▲ +13.0

Apostolos Amaya PF 22 y

Strong61–80

Age: 22
Potential: Elite (81–99)
Form: -0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

50/117 shots 121.0 expected 120 scored ▼ −1.0

Kosmas Alvarez SF 29 y

Strong61–80

Age: 29
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 4

58/138 shots 146.2 expected 145 scored ▼ −1.2

Timothée Sanni C 27 y

Solid41–60

Age: 27
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: -0.2
Contract ends: End of season 4

33/70 shots 79.0 expected 71 scored ▼ −8.0

Solon Popadić C 28 y

Solid41–60

Age: 28
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: -0.2
Contract ends: End of season 4

24/67 shots 71.3 expected 49 scored ▼ −22.3

A man is listed from 50 shots.