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Feribotlar Çanakkale

Founded 1948 in Çanakkale

Kordonboyu Salonu, holding 2 000

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Feribotlar Çanakkale's wins match its points

+0.3 wins

Feribotlar Çanakkale's points say about 14 wins in 18 league games. It has 14. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

14Wins so far

13.7Points say

81.4Scored a game

74.9Allowed a game

+6.5Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 18 league games	1 466
Points allowed	1 349
Allowed ÷ scored	0.9202
To the power of 14	0.3121
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.3121)	76.21%
× 18 games played	13.72
Wins the points say	13.7 adds up

Wins so far	14
Difference	+0.3 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Feribotlar Çanakkale won 2 and lost 0. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 18. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

Strong on the glass

30.5 %

Feribotlar Çanakkale win back 30.5 % of their misses. The league wins back 26.6 %. That is 1st of 10.

FEC 30.5 %

League 26.6 %

How we counted it

Feribotlar Çanakkale: 187 ÷ (187 + 427)	30.5 %
League mean, 10 clubs	26.6 %
Rank, 10 clubs	1st of 10

Strength

A strong attack

111.8

Feribotlar Çanakkale score 111.8 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 105.9. That is 2nd of 10.

FEC 111.8

League 105.9

How we counted it

100 × 1 466 points ÷ 1 311 possessions	111.8
League mean, 10 clubs	105.9
Rank, 10 clubs	2nd of 10

Strength

Hot shooting

52.8 %

Feribotlar Çanakkale shoot 52.8 % effective. The league shoots 50.7 %. That is 2nd of 10.

FEC 52.8 %

League 50.7 %

How we counted it

Feribotlar Çanakkale: (531 + ½ × 194) ÷ 1 189	52.8 %
League mean, 10 clubs	50.7 %
Rank, 10 clubs	2nd of 10

Best shot-maker

Emilio Mota

#76 · SG

71/156shots

183points

+30.2vs expected

How we counted it

71 made of 156, 41 of them threes	71/156
Points: 2 × 71 + 41	183
His shots are worth (expected)	152.8
Above expected	183 − 152.8 = +30.2 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 2nd of 10

FEC 52.8 %

League 50.7 %

How we counted it

Feribotlar Çanakkale: (531 + ½ × 194) ÷ 1 189	52.8 %
League mean, 10 clubs	50.7 %
Rank, 10 clubs	2nd of 10

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 6th of 10

FEC 17.2 %

League 16.9 %

How we counted it

Feribotlar Çanakkale: 225 ÷ 1 311 possessions	17.2 %
League mean, 10 clubs	16.9 %
Rank, 10 clubs	6th of 10

Reboundsown misses won back · 1st of 10

FEC 30.5 %

League 26.6 %

How we counted it

Feribotlar Çanakkale: 187 ÷ (187 + 427)	30.5 %
League mean, 10 clubs	26.6 %
Rank, 10 clubs	1st of 10

Free throwstries per shot · 7th of 10

FEC 23.3 %

League 24.0 %

How we counted it

Feribotlar Çanakkale: 277 tries ÷ 1 189 shots	23.3 %
League mean, 10 clubs	24.0 %
Rank, 10 clubs	7th of 10

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Lucky so far

Your shots have paid off a little

+20.8

Over 8 games Feribotlar Çanakkale's shots were worth 511.2 points and they scored 532 from the floor: 2.6 a game better than the league would do from the same shots.

+20.8

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 221 + 90	532
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	511.2
Shot-making	+20.8
A game	+2.60

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 18.

Feribotlar Çanakkale
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 270	11	0.72	7.9
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 270	5	0.72	3.6
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 270	4	0.72	2.9
Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 270	1	0.72	0.7
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 34 % of 1 149	11	0.67	7.4
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 34 % of 1 149	3	0.67	2.0
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 34 % of 1 149	2	0.67	1.4
Mid-range · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 249	17	0.75	12.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 249	1	0.75	0.7
Mid-range · Pull-up31 % of 363 league shots	24	0.62	14.8
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 484	6	0.61	3.7
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 484	4	0.61	2.4
Rim · Drive58 % of 797 league shots	78	1.17	91.0
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 1 222	19	1.19	22.5
Rim · Drive · fast break63 % of 249 league shots	23	1.25	28.8
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 204	15	1.19	17.8
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 204	5	1.19	5.9
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 204	2	1.19	2.4
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 234	17	1.25	21.2
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 234	3	1.25	3.7
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 234	6	1.25	7.5
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 234	1	1.25	1.3
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 757	4	1.20	4.8
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 757	1	1.20	1.2
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 757	2	1.20	2.4
Rim · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 757	1	1.20	1.2
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 2 166	12	0.99	11.9
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 2 166	1	0.99	1.0
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 2 166	2	0.99	2.0
Three · Catch and shoot33 % of 1 234 league shots	147	0.99	145.5
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance28 % of 218 league shots	25	0.85	21.3
Three · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 1 675	17	0.97	16.5
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 1 675	3	0.97	2.9
Three · Pull-up35 % of 272 league shots	27	1.06	28.6
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 362	6	1.06	6.4
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 362	3	1.06	3.2
Total adds up	509	1.00	511.2

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Where Feribotlar Çanakkale shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

509 of 509 shots shown

43.4%

221 of 509 from the floor, 8 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 104 / 177 59% · avg 2.1 ft 57 of the 104 makes assisted league 61% 208pts

MID 27 / 89 30% · avg 14.1 ft 15 of the 27 makes assisted league 37% 54pts

THREE 90 / 243 37% · avg 25.2 ft 73 of the 90 makes assisted league 33% 270pts

221 of 509 from the floor, 532 points, + 112 from the line

The dots cover 8 of 18 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

145 of 221 makes were assisted (66%): 57 + 15 + 73.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 8 games whose streams are stored, of 18 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 18 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Feribotlar Çanakkale

35% 17% 48%

League

35% 23% 43%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Feribotlar Çanakkale

31% 47% 15%

League

32% 43% 19%

How we counted it

Feribotlar Çanakkale: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	156 drives + 38 post-ups + 237 catch and shoot + 78 pull-ups = 509

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Emilio Mota SG 22 y

Strong61–80

Age: 22
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.7
Contract ends: End of season 2

71/156 shots 152.8 expected 183 scored ▲ +30.2

Rafet Düzgün Injured SF 29 y

Modest21–40

Age: 29
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: -0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

23/52 shots 53.9 expected 56 scored ▲ +2.1

Barkın Aykaç SG 30 y

Solid41–60

Age: 30
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: -0.1
Contract ends: End of season 4

23/59 shots 59.1 expected 56 scored ▼ −3.1

Jovan Heck SF 28 y

Solid41–60

Age: 28
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

29/67 shots 70.3 expected 67 scored ▼ −3.3

A man is listed from 50 shots.