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Fijakeristi Sombor

Founded 1992 in Sombor

Dvorana kod Venca, holding 7 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Ahead of its points

Fijakeristi Sombor's wins run ahead of its points

+1.8 wins

Fijakeristi Sombor's points say about 8 wins in 15 league games. It has 10. The table has been a little kind.

10Wins so far

8.2Points say

86.9Scored a game

85.7Allowed a game

+1.2Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 15 league games	1 303
Points allowed	1 285
Allowed ÷ scored	0.9862
To the power of 14	0.8230
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.8230)	54.85%
× 15 games played	8.23
Wins the points say	8.2 adds up

Wins so far	10
Difference	+1.8 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Fijakeristi Sombor won 4 and lost 1. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 15. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Weakness

Weak on the glass

22.5 %

Fijakeristi Sombor win back 22.5 % of their misses. The league wins back 26.8 %. That is 16th of 16.

FIS 22.5 %

League 26.8 %

How we counted it

Fijakeristi Sombor: 106 ÷ (106 + 365)	22.5 %
League mean, 16 clubs	26.8 %
Rank, 16 clubs	16th of 16

Strength

A solid defence

110.6

Fijakeristi Sombor let in 110.6 per 100 trips against the league's 114.0. Lower is better: 2nd of 16.

FIS 110.6

League 114.0

How we counted it

100 × 1 285 allowed ÷ 1 162 possessions	110.6
League mean, 16 clubs	114.0
Rank, 16 clubs	2nd of 16

Weakness

Few trips to the line

28.1

Fijakeristi Sombor attempt 28.1 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 32.1, so 15th of 16.

FIS 28.1 %

League 32.1 %

How we counted it

Fijakeristi Sombor: 269 tries ÷ 958 shots	28.1 %
League mean, 16 clubs	32.1 %
Rank, 16 clubs	15th of 16

Best shot-maker

Stevo Borković

#79 · PG

50/86shots

115points

+20.2vs expected

How we counted it

50 made of 86, 15 of them threes	50/86
Points: 2 × 50 + 15	115
His shots are worth (expected)	94.8
Above expected	115 − 94.8 = +20.2 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 6th of 16

FIS 56.9 %

League 55.7 %

How we counted it

Fijakeristi Sombor: (467 + ½ × 157) ÷ 958	56.9 %
League mean, 16 clubs	55.7 %
Rank, 16 clubs	6th of 16

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 12th of 16

FIS 19.3 %

League 18.9 %

How we counted it

Fijakeristi Sombor: 225 ÷ 1 168 possessions	19.3 %
League mean, 16 clubs	18.9 %
Rank, 16 clubs	12th of 16

Reboundsown misses won back · 16th of 16

FIS 22.5 %

League 26.8 %

How we counted it

Fijakeristi Sombor: 106 ÷ (106 + 365)	22.5 %
League mean, 16 clubs	26.8 %
Rank, 16 clubs	16th of 16

Free throwstries per shot · 15th of 16

FIS 28.1 %

League 32.1 %

How we counted it

Fijakeristi Sombor: 269 tries ÷ 958 shots	28.1 %
League mean, 16 clubs	32.1 %
Rank, 16 clubs	15th of 16

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Lucky so far

Your shots have paid off a little

+16.6

Over 7 games Fijakeristi Sombor's shots were worth 474.4 points and they scored 491 from the floor: 2.4 a game better than the league would do from the same shots.

+16.6

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 210 + 71	491
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	474.4
Shot-making	+16.6
A game	+2.37

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 15.

Fijakeristi Sombor
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 44 % of 295	17	0.88	15.0
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 44 % of 295	2	0.88	1.8
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 44 % of 295	4	0.88	3.5
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 212	5	0.79	4.0
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 212	1	0.79	0.8
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 212	1	0.79	0.8
Mid-range · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 42 % of 253	15	0.84	12.6
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 42 % of 253	1	0.84	0.8
Mid-range · Pull-up41 % of 447 league shots	32	0.82	26.2
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 629	4	0.82	3.3
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 629	7	0.82	5.8
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 629	1	0.82	0.8
Rim · Drive60 % of 1 038 league shots	68	1.20	81.8
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 1 666	4	1.26	5.0
Rim · Drive · fast break70 % of 419 league shots	30	1.39	41.8
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 1 666	5	1.26	6.3
Rim · Post-up67 % of 294 league shots	11	1.33	14.7
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 67 % of 380	5	1.34	6.7
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 67 % of 380	4	1.34	5.3
Rim · Catch and shoot66 % of 279 league shots	24	1.31	31.5
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 65 % of 439	1	1.29	1.3
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 65 % of 439	4	1.29	5.2
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 65 % of 439	2	1.29	2.6
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 65 % of 212	8	1.29	10.3
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 65 % of 212	1	1.29	1.3
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 219	7	0.97	6.8
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 219	1	0.97	1.0
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 219	4	0.97	3.9
Three · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 37 % of 2 861	2	1.11	2.2
Three · Catch and shoot37 % of 1 570 league shots	86	1.10	94.6
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance40 % of 255 league shots	4	1.20	4.8
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break39 % of 291 league shots	25	1.18	29.4
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 2 158	1	1.12	1.1
Three · Pull-up38 % of 354 league shots	25	1.14	28.4
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 473	6	1.09	6.5
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 473	6	1.09	6.5
Total adds up	424	1.12	474.4

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Where Fijakeristi Sombor shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

424 of 424 shots shown

49.5%

210 of 424 from the floor, 7 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 111 / 167 67% · avg 2.0 ft 77 of the 111 makes assisted league 64% 222pts

MID 28 / 90 31% · avg 14.5 ft 11 of the 28 makes assisted league 42% 56pts

THREE 71 / 167 43% · avg 25.3 ft 63 of the 71 makes assisted league 36% 213pts

210 of 424 from the floor, 491 points, + 105 from the line

The dots cover 7 of 15 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

151 of 210 makes were assisted (72%): 77 + 11 + 63.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 7 games whose streams are stored, of 15 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 15 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Fijakeristi Sombor

39% 21% 39%

League

39% 20% 41%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Fijakeristi Sombor

33% 38% 21%

League

31% 9% 41% 19%

How we counted it

Fijakeristi Sombor: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	142 drives + 29 post-ups + 163 catch and shoot + 90 pull-ups = 424

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Stevo Borković PG 25 y

Strong61–80

Age: 25
Potential: Elite (81–99)
Form: 0.4
Contract ends: End of season 3

50/86 shots 94.8 expected 115 scored ▲ +20.2

Dragoslav Leskovec PF 32 y

Strong61–80

Age: 32
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

32/64 shots 71.0 expected 79 scored ▲ +8.0

Branislav Spasojević SG 21 y

Strong61–80

Age: 21
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 2

28/56 shots 60.8 expected 65 scored ▲ +4.2

A man is listed from 50 shots.