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Fiorai Sanremo

Founded 1979 in Sanremo

Palestra della Pigna, holding 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Fiorai Sanremo's wins match its points

−0.1 wins

Fiorai Sanremo's points say about 6 wins in 13 league games. It has 6. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

6Wins so far

6.1Points say

70.8Scored a game

71.5Allowed a game

−0.7Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 13 league games	921
Points allowed	930
Allowed ÷ scored	1.0098
To the power of 14	1.1458
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 1.1458)	46.60%
× 13 games played	6.06
Wins the points say	6.1 adds up

Wins so far	6
Difference	−0.1 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Fiorai Sanremo won 1 and lost 3. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 13. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Weakness

Few trips to the line

14.1

Fiorai Sanremo attempt 14.1 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 19.7, so 14th of 14.

FIS 14.1 %

League 19.7 %

How we counted it

Fiorai Sanremo: 129 tries ÷ 916 shots	14.1 %
League mean, 14 clubs	19.7 %
Rank, 14 clubs	14th of 14

Weakness

Cold shooting

45.3 %

Fiorai Sanremo shoot 45.3 % effective. The league shoots 47.9 %. That is 11th of 14.

FIS 45.3 %

League 47.9 %

How we counted it

Fiorai Sanremo: (358 + ½ × 113) ÷ 916	45.3 %
League mean, 14 clubs	47.9 %
Rank, 14 clubs	11th of 14

Strength

Strong on the glass

28.2 %

Fiorai Sanremo win back 28.2 % of their misses. The league wins back 25.6 %. That is 4th of 14.

FIS 28.2 %

League 25.6 %

How we counted it

Fiorai Sanremo: 149 ÷ (149 + 380)	28.2 %
League mean, 14 clubs	25.6 %
Rank, 14 clubs	4th of 14

Best shot-maker

Attilio Çiçek

#64 · PG

42/95shots

104points

+18.6vs expected

How we counted it

42 made of 95, 20 of them threes	42/95
Points: 2 × 42 + 20	104
His shots are worth (expected)	85.4
Above expected	104 − 85.4 = +18.6 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 11th of 14

FIS 45.3 %

League 47.9 %

How we counted it

Fiorai Sanremo: (358 + ½ × 113) ÷ 916	45.3 %
League mean, 14 clubs	47.9 %
Rank, 14 clubs	11th of 14

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 6th of 14

FIS 14.8 %

League 15.2 %

How we counted it

Fiorai Sanremo: 139 ÷ 938 possessions	14.8 %
League mean, 14 clubs	15.2 %
Rank, 14 clubs	6th of 14

Reboundsown misses won back · 4th of 14

FIS 28.2 %

League 25.6 %

How we counted it

Fiorai Sanremo: 149 ÷ (149 + 380)	28.2 %
League mean, 14 clubs	25.6 %
Rank, 14 clubs	4th of 14

Free throwstries per shot · 14th of 14

FIS 14.1 %

League 19.7 %

How we counted it

Fiorai Sanremo: 129 tries ÷ 916 shots	14.1 %
League mean, 14 clubs	19.7 %
Rank, 14 clubs	14th of 14

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Unlucky so far

Your shots have not paid off

−26.4

Over 6 games Fiorai Sanremo's shots were worth 377.4 points and they scored 351 from the floor: 4.4 a game worse than the league would do from the same shots.

−26.4

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 148 + 55	351
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	377.4
Shot-making	−26.4
A game	−4.41

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 13.

Fiorai Sanremo
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive35 % of 222 league shots	11	0.69	7.6
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 325	2	0.69	1.4
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 325	5	0.69	3.5
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 1 308	8	0.70	5.6
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 1 308	3	0.70	2.1
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 1 308	1	0.70	0.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot33 % of 234 league shots	20	0.67	13.3
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 299	2	0.71	1.4
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 299	6	0.71	4.3
Mid-range · Pull-up36 % of 414 league shots	44	0.73	32.1
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 543	10	0.70	7.0
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 543	3	0.70	2.1
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 543	1	0.70	0.7
Rim · Drive55 % of 842 league shots	50	1.10	55.2
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 57 % of 1 261	7	1.14	8.0
Rim · Drive · fast break62 % of 239 league shots	16	1.23	19.7
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 57 % of 1 261	3	1.14	3.4
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 57 % of 1 670	5	1.14	5.7
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 57 % of 1 670	1	1.14	1.1
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 57 % of 1 670	2	1.14	2.3
Rim · Post-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 57 % of 1 670	1	1.14	1.1
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 57 % of 1 670	10	1.14	11.4
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 57 % of 1 670	1	1.14	1.1
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 57 % of 1 670	2	1.14	2.3
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 57 % of 1 670	2	1.14	2.3
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 57 % of 1 670	1	1.14	1.1
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 57 % of 1 670	2	1.14	2.3
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 32 % of 2 439	10	0.95	9.5
Three · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 32 % of 2 439	1	0.95	1.0
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 32 % of 2 439	2	0.95	1.9
Three · Catch and shoot32 % of 1 428 league shots	115	0.97	112.1
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance29 % of 252 league shots	18	0.87	15.6
Three · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 1 893	10	0.95	9.5
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 1 893	4	0.95	3.8
Three · Pull-up32 % of 307 league shots	19	0.96	18.2
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 383	4	0.99	4.0
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 383	3	0.99	3.0
Total adds up	405	0.93	377.4

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Where Fiorai Sanremo shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

405 of 405 shots shown

36.5%

148 of 405 from the floor, 6 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 51 / 103 50% · avg 2.0 ft 16 of the 51 makes assisted league 58% 102pts

MID 42 / 116 36% · avg 14.9 ft 15 of the 42 makes assisted league 37% 84pts

THREE 55 / 186 30% · avg 25.2 ft 45 of the 55 makes assisted league 31% 165pts

148 of 405 from the floor, 351 points, + 50 from the line

The dots cover 6 of 13 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

76 of 148 makes were assisted (51%): 16 + 15 + 45.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 6 games whose streams are stored, of 13 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 13 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Fiorai Sanremo

25% 29% 46%

League

31% 24% 45%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Fiorai Sanremo

26% 46% 22%

League

32% 43% 19%

How we counted it

Fiorai Sanremo: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	105 drives + 23 post-ups + 188 catch and shoot + 89 pull-ups = 405

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Attilio Çiçek PG 26 y

Solid41–60

Age: 26
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

42/95 shots 85.4 expected 104 scored ▲ +18.6

Gökhan Demirbaş SG 23 y

Solid41–60

Age: 23
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: -0.4
Contract ends: End of season 3

16/51 shots 46.8 expected 43 scored ▼ −3.8

Veselin Škoflek SF 20 y

Solid41–60

Age: 20
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

22/75 shots 75.2 expected 49 scored ▼ −26.2

A man is listed from 50 shots.