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Flosarji Mozirje

Founded 1987 in Mozirje

Dvorana v Gaju, holding 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Flosarji Mozirje's wins match its points

−0.8 wins

Flosarji Mozirje's points say about 12 wins in 18 league games. It has 11. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

11Wins so far

11.8Points say

72.9Scored a game

69.7Allowed a game

+3.3Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 18 league games	1 313
Points allowed	1 254
Allowed ÷ scored	0.9551
To the power of 14	0.5254
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.5254)	65.56%
× 18 games played	11.80
Wins the points say	11.8 adds up

Wins so far	11
Difference	−0.8 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Flosarji Mozirje won 5 and lost 3. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 18. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

A solid defence

97.3

Flosarji Mozirje let in 97.3 per 100 trips against the league's 99.8. Lower is better: 2nd of 10.

FLM 97.3

League 99.8

How we counted it

100 × 1 254 allowed ÷ 1 289 possessions	97.3
League mean, 10 clubs	99.8
Rank, 10 clubs	2nd of 10

Strength

Hot shooting

49.5 %

Flosarji Mozirje shoot 49.5 % effective. The league shoots 47.2 %. That is 2nd of 10.

FLM 49.5 %

League 47.2 %

How we counted it

Flosarji Mozirje: (488 + ½ × 163) ÷ 1 150	49.5 %
League mean, 10 clubs	47.2 %
Rank, 10 clubs	2nd of 10

Strength

Plenty of trips to the line

22.3

Flosarji Mozirje attempt 22.3 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 20.1, so 2nd of 10.

FLM 22.3 %

League 20.1 %

How we counted it

Flosarji Mozirje: 256 tries ÷ 1 150 shots	22.3 %
League mean, 10 clubs	20.1 %
Rank, 10 clubs	2nd of 10

Best shot-maker

Massimo Akalın

#11 · SG

69/159shots

168points

+18.8vs expected

How we counted it

69 made of 159, 30 of them threes	69/159
Points: 2 × 69 + 30	168
His shots are worth (expected)	149.2
Above expected	168 − 149.2 = +18.8 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 2nd of 10

FLM 49.5 %

League 47.2 %

How we counted it

Flosarji Mozirje: (488 + ½ × 163) ÷ 1 150	49.5 %
League mean, 10 clubs	47.2 %
Rank, 10 clubs	2nd of 10

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 6th of 10

FLM 15.7 %

League 15.5 %

How we counted it

Flosarji Mozirje: 203 ÷ 1 291 possessions	15.7 %
League mean, 10 clubs	15.5 %
Rank, 10 clubs	6th of 10

Reboundsown misses won back · 7th of 10

FLM 23.8 %

League 25.5 %

How we counted it

Flosarji Mozirje: 156 ÷ (156 + 500)	23.8 %
League mean, 10 clubs	25.5 %
Rank, 10 clubs	7th of 10

Free throwstries per shot · 2nd of 10

FLM 22.3 %

League 20.1 %

How we counted it

Flosarji Mozirje: 256 tries ÷ 1 150 shots	22.3 %
League mean, 10 clubs	20.1 %
Rank, 10 clubs	2nd of 10

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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As expected

Right on what the shots are worth

−1.5

Over 8 games Flosarji Mozirje's shots were worth 465.5 points and they scored 464 from the floor: 0.2 a game in line with what than the league would do from the same shots.

−1.5

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 196 + 72	464
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	465.5
Shot-making	−1.5
A game	−0.19

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 18.

Flosarji Mozirje
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive37 % of 228 league shots	20	0.75	14.9
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 346	1	0.75	0.7
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 346	6	0.75	4.5
Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 346	2	0.75	1.5
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 1 255	12	0.70	8.4
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 1 255	3	0.70	2.1
Mid-range · Catch and shoot33 % of 217 league shots	16	0.66	10.6
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 287	2	0.66	1.3
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 287	1	0.66	0.7
Mid-range · Pull-up37 % of 378 league shots	39	0.75	29.1
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 490	7	0.73	5.1
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 490	6	0.73	4.4
Rim · Drive59 % of 852 league shots	85	1.18	100.6
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 1 290	8	1.21	9.7
Rim · Drive · fast break63 % of 254 league shots	31	1.27	39.3
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 1 290	2	1.21	2.4
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 684	12	1.20	14.4
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 684	2	1.20	2.4
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 684	1	1.20	1.2
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 684	12	1.20	14.4
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 684	1	1.20	1.2
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 684	4	1.20	4.8
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 684	1	1.20	1.2
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 684	5	1.20	6.0
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 684	1	1.20	1.2
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 28 % of 2 151	4	0.84	3.4
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 28 % of 2 151	3	0.84	2.5
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 28 % of 2 151	3	0.84	2.5
Three · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 28 % of 2 151	1	0.84	0.8
Three · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 28 % of 2 151	1	0.84	0.8
Three · Catch and shoot28 % of 1 274 league shots	134	0.85	113.3
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance29 % of 214 league shots	21	0.88	18.6
Three · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 28 % of 1 673	16	0.83	13.3
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 28 % of 1 673	7	0.83	5.8
Three · Pull-up30 % of 276 league shots	20	0.90	18.0
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 29 % of 357	4	0.87	3.5
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 29 % of 357	1	0.87	0.9
Total adds up	495	0.94	465.5

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Where Flosarji Mozirje shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

495 of 495 shots shown

39.6%

196 of 495 from the floor, 8 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 90 / 165 55% · avg 2.0 ft 53 of the 90 makes assisted league 60% 180pts

MID 34 / 115 30% · avg 14.7 ft 16 of the 34 makes assisted league 34% 68pts

THREE 72 / 215 34% · avg 25.2 ft 59 of the 72 makes assisted league 30% 216pts

196 of 495 from the floor, 464 points, + 86 from the line

The dots cover 8 of 18 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

128 of 196 makes were assisted (65%): 53 + 16 + 59.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 8 games whose streams are stored, of 18 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 18 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Flosarji Mozirje

33% 23% 43%

League

33% 25% 42%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Flosarji Mozirje

34% 43% 17%

League

34% 42% 18%

How we counted it

Flosarji Mozirje: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	166 drives + 31 post-ups + 215 catch and shoot + 83 pull-ups = 495

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Massimo Akalın SG 21 y

Solid41–60

Age: 21
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.3
Contract ends: End of season 3

69/159 shots 149.2 expected 168 scored ▲ +18.8

Branko Mikuž Injured SF 28 y

Solid41–60

Age: 28
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: -0.1
Contract ends: End of season 4

20/60 shots 51.1 expected 51 scored ▼ −0.1

Toni Vaupotič C 19 y

Solid41–60

Age: 19
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.3
Contract ends: End of season 4

21/55 shots 52.2 expected 48 scored ▼ −4.2

Erkan Stojiljković PG 20 y

Solid41–60

Age: 20
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.3
Contract ends: End of season 4

24/65 shots 62.0 expected 56 scored ▼ −6.0

A man is listed from 50 shots.