Watching Europe and South America 69 leagues
Founded 1952 in Forlì
Palazzetto sul Montone, holding 7 000
The four factors
The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.
They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.
Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.
Fornaci Forlì give it away on 16.4 % of trips against the league's 17.6 %. Fewer is better: 2nd of 20.
| Fornaci Forlì: 220 ÷ 1 339 possessions | 16.4 % |
|---|---|
| League mean, 20 clubs | 17.6 % |
| Rank, 20 clubs | 2nd of 20 |
Fornaci Forlì shoot 51.1 % effective. The league shoots 52.8 %. That is 17th of 20.
| Fornaci Forlì: (508 + ½ × 188) ÷ 1 179 | 51.1 % |
|---|---|
| League mean, 20 clubs | 52.8 % |
| Rank, 20 clubs | 17th of 20 |
Fornaci Forlì score 107.2 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 109.5. That is 13th of 20.
| 100 × 1 436 points ÷ 1 339 possessions | 107.2 |
|---|---|
| League mean, 20 clubs | 109.5 |
| Rank, 20 clubs | 13th of 20 |
#17 · SG
| 59 made of 120, 22 of them threes | 59/120 |
|---|---|
| Points: 2 × 59 + 22 | 140 |
| His shots are worth (expected) | 128.2 |
| Above expected | 140 − 128.2 = +11.8 adds up |
| Fornaci Forlì: (508 + ½ × 188) ÷ 1 179 | 51.1 % |
|---|---|
| League mean, 20 clubs | 52.8 % |
| Rank, 20 clubs | 17th of 20 |
| Fornaci Forlì: 220 ÷ 1 339 possessions | 16.4 % |
|---|---|
| League mean, 20 clubs | 17.6 % |
| Rank, 20 clubs | 2nd of 20 |
| Fornaci Forlì: 173 ÷ (173 + 476) | 26.7 % |
|---|---|
| League mean, 20 clubs | 26.9 % |
| Rank, 20 clubs | 10th of 20 |
| Fornaci Forlì: 316 tries ÷ 1 179 shots | 26.8 % |
|---|---|
| League mean, 20 clubs | 26.1 % |
| Rank, 20 clubs | 9th of 20 |
Shot-making
Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.
Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.
Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.
Over 8 games Fornaci Forlì's shots were worth 546.6 points and they scored 519 from the floor: 3.4 a game worse than the league would do from the same shots.
| Points: 2 × 226 + 67 | 519 |
|---|---|
| Expected points, the squad's shots added up | 546.6 |
| Shot-making | −27.6 |
| A game | −3.44 |
Expected points are measured against league rates through round 18.
| Kind of shot | Shots | Worth | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mid-range · Drive39 % of 337 league shots | 13 | 0.77 | 10.0 |
| Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 532 | 1 | 0.77 | 0.8 |
| Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 532 | 6 | 0.77 | 4.6 |
| Mid-range · Post-up33 % of 228 league shots | 12 | 0.66 | 7.9 |
| Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 276 | 1 | 0.62 | 0.6 |
| Mid-range · Post-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 276 | 1 | 0.62 | 0.6 |
| Mid-range · Catch and shoot39 % of 319 league shots | 15 | 0.77 | 11.6 |
| Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 453 | 2 | 0.74 | 1.5 |
| Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 453 | 2 | 0.74 | 1.5 |
| Mid-range · Pull-up40 % of 756 league shots | 48 | 0.80 | 38.6 |
| Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 1 002 | 6 | 0.80 | 4.8 |
| Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 1 002 | 4 | 0.80 | 3.2 |
| Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 1 002 | 1 | 0.80 | 0.8 |
| Rim · Drive63 % of 1 583 league shots | 98 | 1.26 | 123.7 |
| Rim · Drive · second chance56 % of 268 league shots | 9 | 1.11 | 10.0 |
| Rim · Drive · fast break68 % of 518 league shots | 24 | 1.35 | 32.4 |
| Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 2 446 | 7 | 1.27 | 8.9 |
| Rim · Post-up64 % of 346 league shots | 23 | 1.28 | 29.5 |
| Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 442 | 1 | 1.28 | 1.3 |
| Rim · Catch and shoot58 % of 314 league shots | 12 | 1.17 | 14.0 |
| Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 486 | 1 | 1.22 | 1.2 |
| Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 486 | 6 | 1.22 | 7.3 |
| Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 262 | 8 | 1.24 | 10.0 |
| Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 262 | 6 | 1.24 | 7.5 |
| Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 272 | 12 | 1.06 | 12.7 |
| Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 272 | 1 | 1.06 | 1.1 |
| Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 4 357 | 1 | 1.04 | 1.0 |
| Three · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 4 357 | 1 | 1.04 | 1.0 |
| Three · Catch and shoot35 % of 2 464 league shots | 108 | 1.06 | 114.4 |
| Three · Catch and shoot · second chance32 % of 380 league shots | 25 | 0.95 | 23.7 |
| Three · Catch and shoot · fast break36 % of 423 league shots | 17 | 1.09 | 18.5 |
| Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 3 315 | 5 | 1.05 | 5.2 |
| Three · Pull-up34 % of 548 league shots | 27 | 1.02 | 27.5 |
| Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 747 | 5 | 1.02 | 5.1 |
| Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 747 | 4 | 1.02 | 4.1 |
| Total adds up | 513 | 1.07 | 546.6 |
Shot quality is counted from the 8 games whose streams are stored, of 18 played.
Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 18 games are counted.
| Fornaci Forlì: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups | 171 drives + 40 post-ups + 193 catch and shoot + 109 pull-ups = 513 |
|---|
Expected points
The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.
It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.
Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.
A man is listed from 50 shots.
