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Fortai Kaunas

Founded 1929 in Kaunas

Santakos salė, holding 11 000

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Behind its points

Fortai Kaunas's wins trail its points

−2.0 wins

Fortai Kaunas's points say about 14 wins in 18 league games. It has 12. The table has been a little unkind.

12Wins so far

14.0Points say

91.8Scored a game

84.0Allowed a game

+7.8Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 18 league games	1 652
Points allowed	1 512
Allowed ÷ scored	0.9153
To the power of 14	0.2895
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.2895)	77.55%
× 18 games played	13.96
Wins the points say	14.0 adds up

Wins so far	12
Difference	−2.0 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Fortai Kaunas won 1 and lost 1. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 18. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

A strong attack

118.8

Fortai Kaunas score 118.8 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 114.2. That is 1st of 10.

FOK 118.8

League 114.2

How we counted it

100 × 1 652 points ÷ 1 391 possessions	118.8
League mean, 10 clubs	114.2
Rank, 10 clubs	1st of 10

Strength

A solid defence

108.4

Fortai Kaunas let in 108.4 per 100 trips against the league's 114.2. Lower is better: 1st of 10.

FOK 108.4

League 114.2

How we counted it

100 × 1 512 allowed ÷ 1 395 possessions	108.4
League mean, 10 clubs	114.2
Rank, 10 clubs	1st of 10

Strength

Hot shooting

57.7 %

Fortai Kaunas shoot 57.7 % effective. The league shoots 56.1 %. That is 2nd of 10.

FOK 57.7 %

League 56.1 %

How we counted it

Fortai Kaunas: (594 + ½ × 188) ÷ 1 193	57.7 %
League mean, 10 clubs	56.1 %
Rank, 10 clubs	2nd of 10

Best shot-maker

Stasys Stevović

#37 · SG

61/107shots

140points

+18.4vs expected

How we counted it

61 made of 107, 18 of them threes	61/107
Points: 2 × 61 + 18	140
His shots are worth (expected)	121.6
Above expected	140 − 121.6 = +18.4 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 2nd of 10

FOK 57.7 %

League 56.1 %

How we counted it

Fortai Kaunas: (594 + ½ × 188) ÷ 1 193	57.7 %
League mean, 10 clubs	56.1 %
Rank, 10 clubs	2nd of 10

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 3rd of 10

FOK 18.0 %

League 19.1 %

How we counted it

Fortai Kaunas: 250 ÷ 1 391 possessions	18.0 %
League mean, 10 clubs	19.1 %
Rank, 10 clubs	3rd of 10

Reboundsown misses won back · 5th of 10

FOK 27.9 %

League 26.9 %

How we counted it

Fortai Kaunas: 158 ÷ (158 + 408)	27.9 %
League mean, 10 clubs	26.9 %
Rank, 10 clubs	5th of 10

Free throwstries per shot · 9th of 10

FOK 27.2 %

League 31.0 %

How we counted it

Fortai Kaunas: 325 tries ÷ 1 193 shots	27.2 %
League mean, 10 clubs	31.0 %
Rank, 10 clubs	9th of 10

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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As expected

Right on what the shots are worth

−10.2

Over 9 games Fortai Kaunas's shots were worth 668.2 points and they scored 658 from the floor: 1.1 a game in line with what than the league would do from the same shots.

−10.2

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 285 + 88	658
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	668.2
Shot-making	−10.2
A game	−1.14

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 18.

Fortai Kaunas
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 232	16	0.72	11.4
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 232	3	0.72	2.1
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 232	4	0.72	2.9
Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 232	2	0.72	1.4
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 41 % of 1 088	19	0.83	15.7
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 41 % of 1 088	3	0.83	2.5
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 41 % of 1 088	2	0.83	1.6
Mid-range · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 41 % of 1 088	19	0.83	15.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 41 % of 1 088	2	0.83	1.6
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 41 % of 1 088	4	0.83	3.3
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 41 % of 1 088	1	0.83	0.8
Mid-range · Pull-up43 % of 366 league shots	34	0.85	29.0
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 507	7	0.83	5.8
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 507	6	0.83	5.0
Rim · Drive61 % of 844 league shots	80	1.21	96.9
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 1 412	9	1.26	11.4
Rim · Drive · fast break69 % of 374 league shots	41	1.39	56.8
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 1 412	15	1.26	18.9
Rim · Post-up61 % of 223 league shots	22	1.22	26.8
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 290	2	1.19	2.4
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 290	1	1.19	1.2
Rim · Catch and shoot60 % of 245 league shots	24	1.19	28.6
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 372	3	1.26	3.8
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 372	10	1.26	12.6
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 372	1	1.26	1.3
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 62 % of 2 238	12	1.24	14.9
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 62 % of 2 238	7	1.24	8.7
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 38 % of 2 357	11	1.13	12.5
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 38 % of 2 357	5	1.13	5.7
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 38 % of 2 357	6	1.13	6.8
Three · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 38 % of 2 357	1	1.13	1.1
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 38 % of 2 357	1	1.13	1.1
Three · Catch and shoot38 % of 1 311 league shots	135	1.15	154.8
Three · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 1 784	17	1.15	19.5
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break39 % of 245 league shots	30	1.16	34.9
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 1 784	7	1.15	8.0
Three · Pull-up38 % of 259 league shots	27	1.15	31.0
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 379	2	1.08	2.2
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 379	7	1.08	7.5
Total adds up	598	1.12	668.2

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Where Fortai Kaunas shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

598 of 598 shots shown

47.7%

285 of 598 from the floor, 9 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 146 / 227 64% · avg 2.1 ft 86 of the 146 makes assisted league 63% 292pts

MID 51 / 122 42% · avg 13.9 ft 25 of the 51 makes assisted league 41% 102pts

THREE 88 / 249 35% · avg 25.1 ft 80 of the 88 makes assisted league 38% 264pts

285 of 598 from the floor, 658 points, + 160 from the line

The dots cover 9 of 18 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

191 of 285 makes were assisted (67%): 86 + 25 + 80.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 9 games whose streams are stored, of 18 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 18 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Fortai Kaunas

38% 20% 42%

League

39% 19% 41%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Fortai Kaunas

32% 8% 42% 17%

League

32% 8% 41% 18%

How we counted it

Fortai Kaunas: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	193 drives + 50 post-ups + 253 catch and shoot + 102 pull-ups = 598

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Stasys Stevović SG 32 y

Strong61–80

Age: 32
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 3

61/107 shots 121.6 expected 140 scored ▲ +18.4

Emilio Mateo PG 22 y

Strong61–80

Age: 22
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

38/75 shots 86.2 expected 86 scored ▼ −0.2

Gary Colon SF 28 y

Strong61–80

Age: 28
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.2
Contract ends: End of season 4

40/88 shots 99.4 expected 98 scored ▼ −1.4

Andre Gentry SG 25 y

Strong61–80

Age: 25
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

43/98 shots 106.6 expected 99 scored ▼ −7.6

Aldas Blažys SF 27 y

Strong61–80

Age: 27
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.2
Contract ends: End of season 4

16/51 shots 56.5 expected 41 scored ▼ −15.5

A man is listed from 50 shots.