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Freskari Prijepolje

Founded 1953 in Prijepolje

Dvorana kod Mileševe, holding 2 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Freskari Prijepolje's wins match its points

−0.6 wins

Freskari Prijepolje's points say about 5 wins in 13 league games. It has 4. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

4Wins so far

4.6Points say

77.2Scored a game

80.7Allowed a game

−3.5Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 13 league games	1 004
Points allowed	1 049
Allowed ÷ scored	1.0448
To the power of 14	1.8475
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 1.8475)	35.12%
× 13 games played	4.57
Wins the points say	4.6 adds up

Wins so far	4
Difference	−0.6 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Freskari Prijepolje won 2 and lost 2. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 13. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Weakness

A leaky defence

111.5

Freskari Prijepolje let in 111.5 per 100 trips against the league's 103.5. Lower is better: 14th of 14.

FRP 111.5

League 103.5

How we counted it

100 × 1 049 allowed ÷ 941 possessions	111.5
League mean, 14 clubs	103.5
Rank, 14 clubs	14th of 14

Strength

Hot shooting

52.9 %

Freskari Prijepolje shoot 52.9 % effective. The league shoots 49.8 %. That is 1st of 14.

FRP 52.9 %

League 49.8 %

How we counted it

Freskari Prijepolje: (370 + ½ × 130) ÷ 823	52.9 %
League mean, 14 clubs	49.8 %
Rank, 14 clubs	1st of 14

Strength

Safe with the ball

15.6 %

Freskari Prijepolje give it away on 15.6 % of trips against the league's 16.5 %. Fewer is better: 3rd of 14.

FRP 15.6 %

League 16.5 %

How we counted it

Freskari Prijepolje: 147 ÷ 941 possessions	15.6 %
League mean, 14 clubs	16.5 %
Rank, 14 clubs	3rd of 14

Best shot-maker

Miloš Lazić

#23 · SF

31/75shots

83points

+13.2vs expected

How we counted it

31 made of 75, 21 of them threes	31/75
Points: 2 × 31 + 21	83
His shots are worth (expected)	69.8
Above expected	83 − 69.8 = +13.2 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 1st of 14

FRP 52.9 %

League 49.8 %

How we counted it

Freskari Prijepolje: (370 + ½ × 130) ÷ 823	52.9 %
League mean, 14 clubs	49.8 %
Rank, 14 clubs	1st of 14

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 3rd of 14

FRP 15.6 %

League 16.5 %

How we counted it

Freskari Prijepolje: 147 ÷ 941 possessions	15.6 %
League mean, 14 clubs	16.5 %
Rank, 14 clubs	3rd of 14

Reboundsown misses won back · 12th of 14

FRP 22.1 %

League 25.4 %

How we counted it

Freskari Prijepolje: 96 ÷ (96 + 338)	22.1 %
League mean, 14 clubs	25.4 %
Rank, 14 clubs	12th of 14

Free throwstries per shot · 4th of 14

FRP 25.0 %

League 23.0 %

How we counted it

Freskari Prijepolje: 206 tries ÷ 823 shots	25.0 %
League mean, 14 clubs	23.0 %
Rank, 14 clubs	4th of 14

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Lucky so far

Your shots have paid off a little

+15.3

Over 6 games Freskari Prijepolje's shots were worth 356.7 points and they scored 372 from the floor: 2.6 a game better than the league would do from the same shots.

+15.3

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 155 + 62	372
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	356.7
Shot-making	+15.3
A game	+2.55

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 13.

Freskari Prijepolje
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 291	11	0.71	7.8
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 291	3	0.71	2.1
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 291	9	0.71	6.4
Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 291	1	0.71	0.7
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 36 % of 1 176	4	0.73	2.9
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 36 % of 1 176	2	0.73	1.5
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 36 % of 1 176	2	0.73	1.5
Mid-range · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 247	10	0.80	8.0
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 247	3	0.80	2.4
Mid-range · Pull-up35 % of 353 league shots	21	0.70	14.7
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 484	4	0.73	2.9
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 484	2	0.73	1.5
Rim · Drive59 % of 861 league shots	64	1.18	75.7
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 1 342	6	1.20	7.2
Rim · Drive · fast break61 % of 296 league shots	16	1.22	19.6
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 1 342	3	1.20	3.6
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 213	16	1.20	19.2
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 213	1	1.20	1.2
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 213	1	1.20	1.2
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 58 % of 235	3	1.17	3.5
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 58 % of 235	3	1.17	3.5
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 58 % of 235	3	1.17	3.5
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 897	2	1.20	2.4
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 897	2	1.20	2.4
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 31 % of 2 305	8	0.94	7.5
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 31 % of 2 305	1	0.94	0.9
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 31 % of 2 305	2	0.94	1.9
Three · Catch and shoot30 % of 1 333 league shots	96	0.90	86.0
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance31 % of 203 league shots	12	0.92	11.0
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break35 % of 228 league shots	22	1.04	22.9
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 1 784	1	0.92	0.9
Three · Pull-up32 % of 302 league shots	26	0.97	25.3
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 385	2	0.98	2.0
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 385	3	0.98	2.9
Total adds up	365	0.98	356.7

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Where Freskari Prijepolje shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

365 of 365 shots shown

42.5%

155 of 365 from the floor, 6 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 71 / 120 59% · avg 2.0 ft 37 of the 71 makes assisted league 60% 142pts

MID 22 / 72 31% · avg 14.3 ft 12 of the 22 makes assisted league 37% 44pts

THREE 62 / 173 36% · avg 25.0 ft 55 of the 62 makes assisted league 32% 186pts

155 of 365 from the floor, 372 points, + 63 from the line

The dots cover 6 of 13 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

104 of 155 makes were assisted (67%): 37 + 12 + 55.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 6 games whose streams are stored, of 13 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 13 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Freskari Prijepolje

33% 20% 47%

League

35% 22% 43%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Freskari Prijepolje

33% 42% 17%

League

33% 42% 18%

How we counted it

Freskari Prijepolje: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	122 drives + 28 post-ups + 153 catch and shoot + 62 pull-ups = 365

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Miloš Lazić SF 24 y

Solid41–60

Age: 24
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

31/75 shots 69.8 expected 83 scored ▲ +13.2

Jefta Plut SG 31 y

Solid41–60

Age: 31
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 3

27/53 shots 50.0 expected 61 scored ▲ +11.0

Eric Eaton PG 26 y

Solid41–60

Age: 26
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 3

27/75 shots 74.5 expected 59 scored ▼ −15.5

A man is listed from 50 shots.