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Frevistas Recife

Founded 1920 in Recife

Ginásio do Capibaribe, holding 8 000

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Frevistas Recife's wins match its points

−0.7 wins

Frevistas Recife's points say about 10 wins in 19 league games. It has 9. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

9Wins so far

9.7Points say

85.3Scored a game

85.1Allowed a game

+0.2Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 19 league games	1 620
Points allowed	1 616
Allowed ÷ scored	0.9975
To the power of 14	0.9660
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.9660)	50.87%
× 19 games played	9.66
Wins the points say	9.7 adds up

Wins so far	9
Difference	−0.7 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Frevistas Recife won 3 and lost 1. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 19. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Weakness

Cold shooting

53.8 %

Frevistas Recife shoot 53.8 % effective. The league shoots 54.5 %. That is 16th of 20.

FRE 53.8 %

League 54.5 %

How we counted it

Frevistas Recife: (570 + ½ × 164) ÷ 1 212	53.8 %
League mean, 20 clubs	54.5 %
Rank, 20 clubs	16th of 20

Strength

Strong on the glass

28.3 %

Frevistas Recife win back 28.3 % of their misses. The league wins back 26.2 %. That is 5th of 20.

FRE 28.3 %

League 26.2 %

How we counted it

Frevistas Recife: 177 ÷ (177 + 448)	28.3 %
League mean, 20 clubs	26.2 %
Rank, 20 clubs	5th of 20

Strength

A solid defence

111.2

Frevistas Recife let in 111.2 per 100 trips against the league's 112.3. Lower is better: 7th of 20.

FRE 111.2

League 112.3

How we counted it

100 × 1 616 allowed ÷ 1 453 possessions	111.2
League mean, 20 clubs	112.3
Rank, 20 clubs	7th of 20

Best shot-maker

Arlindo Grau

#64 · C

44/94shots

103points

+1.5vs expected

How we counted it

44 made of 94, 15 of them threes	44/94
Points: 2 × 44 + 15	103
His shots are worth (expected)	101.5
Above expected	103 − 101.5 = +1.5 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 16th of 20

FRE 53.8 %

League 54.5 %

How we counted it

Frevistas Recife: (570 + ½ × 164) ÷ 1 212	53.8 %
League mean, 20 clubs	54.5 %
Rank, 20 clubs	16th of 20

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 14th of 20

FRE 18.9 %

League 18.5 %

How we counted it

Frevistas Recife: 275 ÷ 1 452 possessions	18.9 %
League mean, 20 clubs	18.5 %
Rank, 20 clubs	14th of 20

Reboundsown misses won back · 5th of 20

FRE 28.3 %

League 26.2 %

How we counted it

Frevistas Recife: 177 ÷ (177 + 448)	28.3 %
League mean, 20 clubs	26.2 %
Rank, 20 clubs	5th of 20

Free throwstries per shot · 7th of 20

FRE 32.1 %

League 31.4 %

How we counted it

Frevistas Recife: 389 tries ÷ 1 212 shots	32.1 %
League mean, 20 clubs	31.4 %
Rank, 20 clubs	7th of 20

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Unlucky so far

Your shots have not paid off

−32.3

Over 8 games Frevistas Recife's shots were worth 533.3 points and they scored 501 from the floor: 4.0 a game worse than the league would do from the same shots.

−32.3

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 218 + 65	501
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	533.3
Shot-making	−32.3
A game	−4.04

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 19.

Frevistas Recife
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive42 % of 288 league shots	9	0.85	7.6
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 428	4	0.87	3.5
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 428	5	0.87	4.3
Mid-range · Post-up39 % of 267 league shots	15	0.78	11.7
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 344	4	0.80	3.2
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 344	5	0.80	4.0
Mid-range · Catch and shoot39 % of 285 league shots	10	0.78	7.8
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 388	2	0.80	1.6
Mid-range · Pull-up39 % of 654 league shots	23	0.78	17.9
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 921	5	0.78	3.9
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 921	11	0.78	8.6
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 921	1	0.78	0.8
Rim · Drive61 % of 1 511 league shots	59	1.22	71.7
Rim · Drive · second chance58 % of 252 league shots	16	1.15	18.4
Rim · Drive · fast break64 % of 610 league shots	31	1.27	39.4
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 2 476	7	1.23	8.6
Rim · Post-up65 % of 376 league shots	23	1.29	29.7
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 484	6	1.29	7.7
Rim · Catch and shoot64 % of 431 league shots	23	1.28	29.3
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 678	6	1.28	7.7
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 678	14	1.28	17.9
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 678	3	1.28	3.8
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 296	12	1.26	15.1
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 296	1	1.26	1.3
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 296	6	1.26	7.5
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 297	9	1.13	10.2
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 297	2	1.13	2.3
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 4 266	1	1.05	1.0
Three · Catch and shoot34 % of 2 339 league shots	111	1.03	114.2
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance34 % of 333 league shots	13	1.03	13.4
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break36 % of 431 league shots	19	1.09	20.6
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 3 164	2	1.04	2.1
Three · Pull-up36 % of 560 league shots	25	1.07	26.8
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 786	2	1.08	2.2
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 786	7	1.08	7.5
Total adds up	492	1.08	533.3

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Where Frevistas Recife shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

551 of 551 shots shown

45.6%

251 of 551 from the floor, 9 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 134 / 232 58% · avg 2.0 ft 72 of the 134 makes assisted league 63% 268pts

MID 42 / 103 41% · avg 14.2 ft 23 of the 42 makes assisted league 41% 84pts

THREE 75 / 216 35% · avg 25.2 ft 61 of the 75 makes assisted league 36% 225pts

251 of 551 from the floor, 577 points, + 149 from the line

The dots cover 9 of 19 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

156 of 251 makes were assisted (62%): 72 + 23 + 61.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 8 games whose streams are stored, of 19 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 19 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Frevistas Recife

42% 19% 39%

League

38% 20% 41%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Frevistas Recife

29% 11% 41% 19%

League

31% 8% 41% 19%

Frevistas Recife lean on post-ups: 11.0 % of its shots against the league's 8.2 %.

How we counted it

Frevistas Recife: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	142 drives + 54 post-ups + 203 catch and shoot + 93 pull-ups = 492

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Arlindo Grau C 26 y

Strong61–80

Age: 26
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

44/94 shots 101.5 expected 103 scored ▲ +1.5

Toni Montero PF 29 y

Solid41–60

Age: 29
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: -0.3
Contract ends: End of season 4

28/58 shots 63.0 expected 63 scored ▲ 0.0

Gvido Bajc SF 25 y

Solid41–60

Age: 25
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.3
Contract ends: End of season 4

21/57 shots 62.7 expected 50 scored ▼ −12.7

Kaique Rangel SG 32 y

Strong61–80

Age: 32
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 3

21/65 shots 67.3 expected 49 scored ▼ −18.3

A man is listed from 50 shots.