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Fundidores Palpalá

Founded 1950 in Palpalá

Gimnasio de Zapla, holding 2 000

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Ahead of its points

Fundidores Palpalá's wins run ahead of its points

+1.8 wins

Fundidores Palpalá's points say about 11 wins in 22 league games. It has 13. The table has been a little kind.

13Wins so far

11.2Points say

77.5Scored a game

77.4Allowed a game

+0.2Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 22 league games	1 706
Points allowed	1 702
Allowed ÷ scored	0.9977
To the power of 14	0.9677
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.9677)	50.82%
× 22 games played	11.18
Wins the points say	11.2 adds up

Wins so far	13
Difference	+1.8 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Fundidores Palpalá won 4 and lost 1. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 22. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Weakness

A thin attack

105.2

Fundidores Palpalá score 105.2 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 105.6. That is 8th of 12.

FPA 105.2

League 105.6

How we counted it

100 × 1 706 points ÷ 1 621 possessions	105.2
League mean, 12 clubs	105.6
Rank, 12 clubs	8th of 12

Strength

A solid defence

104.8

Fundidores Palpalá let in 104.8 per 100 trips against the league's 105.6. Lower is better: 5th of 12.

FPA 104.8

League 105.6

How we counted it

100 × 1 702 allowed ÷ 1 624 possessions	104.8
League mean, 12 clubs	105.6
Rank, 12 clubs	5th of 12

Strength

Hot shooting

50.9 %

Fundidores Palpalá shoot 50.9 % effective. The league shoots 50.7 %. That is 5th of 12.

FPA 50.9 %

League 50.7 %

How we counted it

Fundidores Palpalá: (635 + ½ × 213) ÷ 1 457	50.9 %
League mean, 12 clubs	50.7 %
Rank, 12 clubs	5th of 12

Best shot-maker

Liborio Camarinha

#42 · PG

62/140shots

153points

+5.3vs expected

How we counted it

62 made of 140, 29 of them threes	62/140
Points: 2 × 62 + 29	153
His shots are worth (expected)	147.7
Above expected	153 − 147.7 = +5.3 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 5th of 12

FPA 50.9 %

League 50.7 %

How we counted it

Fundidores Palpalá: (635 + ½ × 213) ÷ 1 457	50.9 %
League mean, 12 clubs	50.7 %
Rank, 12 clubs	5th of 12

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 8th of 12

FPA 16.3 %

League 16.0 %

How we counted it

Fundidores Palpalá: 264 ÷ 1 621 possessions	16.3 %
League mean, 12 clubs	16.0 %
Rank, 12 clubs	8th of 12

Reboundsown misses won back · 7th of 12

FPA 25.3 %

League 25.4 %

How we counted it

Fundidores Palpalá: 205 ÷ (205 + 605)	25.3 %
League mean, 12 clubs	25.4 %
Rank, 12 clubs	7th of 12

Free throwstries per shot · 8th of 12

FPA 22.2 %

League 23.2 %

How we counted it

Fundidores Palpalá: 323 tries ÷ 1 457 shots	22.2 %
League mean, 12 clubs	23.2 %
Rank, 12 clubs	8th of 12

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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As expected

Right on what the shots are worth

−16.1

Over 10 games Fundidores Palpalá's shots were worth 653.1 points and they scored 637 from the floor: 1.6 a game in line with what than the league would do from the same shots.

−16.1

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 274 + 89	637
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	653.1
Shot-making	−16.1
A game	−1.61

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 22.

Fundidores Palpalá
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive38 % of 263 league shots	29	0.76	22.1
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 375	2	0.71	1.4
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 375	5	0.71	3.5
Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 375	3	0.71	2.1
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 38 % of 1 637	13	0.75	9.8
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 38 % of 1 637	2	0.75	1.5
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 38 % of 1 637	3	0.75	2.3
Mid-range · Catch and shoot35 % of 253 league shots	28	0.70	19.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 340	3	0.75	2.2
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 340	6	0.75	4.5
Mid-range · Pull-up40 % of 557 league shots	60	0.79	47.6
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 762	6	0.79	4.7
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 762	8	0.79	6.3
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 762	3	0.79	2.4
Rim · Drive58 % of 1 195 league shots	105	1.15	120.9
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 1 768	17	1.18	20.0
Rim · Drive · fast break65 % of 352 league shots	35	1.30	45.3
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 1 768	4	1.18	4.7
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 247	9	1.17	10.6
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 247	2	1.17	2.4
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 254	11	1.24	13.7
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 254	3	1.24	3.7
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 254	7	1.24	8.7
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 2 379	5	1.19	5.9
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 2 379	2	1.19	2.4
Rim · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 2 379	1	1.19	1.2
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 34 % of 2 960	14	1.03	14.4
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 34 % of 2 960	2	1.03	2.1
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 34 % of 2 960	6	1.03	6.2
Three · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 34 % of 2 960	1	1.03	1.0
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 34 % of 2 960	1	1.03	1.0
Three · Catch and shoot35 % of 1 664 league shots	156	1.04	161.7
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance35 % of 265 league shots	29	1.04	30.2
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break39 % of 236 league shots	21	1.16	24.3
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 2 194	1	1.05	1.1
Three · Pull-up34 % of 437 league shots	31	1.02	31.5
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 560	6	1.00	6.0
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 560	4	1.00	4.0
Total adds up	644	1.01	653.1

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Where Fundidores Palpalá shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

644 of 644 shots shown

42.5%

274 of 644 from the floor, 10 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 125 / 201 62% · avg 2.0 ft 72 of the 125 makes assisted league 60% 250pts

MID 60 / 171 35% · avg 14.2 ft 21 of the 60 makes assisted league 38% 120pts

THREE 89 / 272 33% · avg 25.3 ft 81 of the 89 makes assisted league 34% 267pts

274 of 644 from the floor, 637 points, + 115 from the line

The dots cover 10 of 22 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

174 of 274 makes were assisted (64%): 72 + 21 + 81.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 10 games whose streams are stored, of 22 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 22 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Fundidores Palpalá

31% 27% 42%

League

34% 23% 42%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Fundidores Palpalá

35% 41% 20%

League

34% 40% 21%

How we counted it

Fundidores Palpalá: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	223 drives + 30 post-ups + 265 catch and shoot + 126 pull-ups = 644

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Liborio Camarinha PG 24 y

Solid41–60

Age: 24
Potential: Elite (81–99)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

62/140 shots 147.7 expected 153 scored ▲ +5.3

Tancredi Beltrán SF 23 y

Solid41–60

Age: 23
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.6
Contract ends: End of season 3

56/133 shots 135.9 expected 140 scored ▲ +4.1

Alberto Lucas SF 27 y

Solid41–60

Age: 27
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: -0.3
Contract ends: End of season 3

39/84 shots 84.6 expected 85 scored ▲ +0.4

Diego Jara PF 21 y

Solid41–60

Age: 21
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

16/70 shots 69.5 expected 38 scored ▼ −31.5

A man is listed from 50 shots.