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Gaiatas Castellón

Founded 1965 in Castellón

Pabellón del Grao, holding 5 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Behind its points

Gaiatas Castellón's wins trail its points

−1.3 wins

Gaiatas Castellón's points say about 6 wins in 17 league games. It has 5. The table has been a little unkind.

5Wins so far

6.3Points say

80.8Scored a game

83.9Allowed a game

−3.1Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 17 league games	1 374
Points allowed	1 427
Allowed ÷ scored	1.0386
To the power of 14	1.6987
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 1.6987)	37.05%
× 17 games played	6.30
Wins the points say	6.3 adds up

Wins so far	5
Difference	−1.3 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Gaiatas Castellón won 2 and lost 4. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 17. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Weakness

Few trips to the line

23.1

Gaiatas Castellón attempt 23.1 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 26.8, so 17th of 18.

GCA 23.1 %

League 26.8 %

How we counted it

Gaiatas Castellón: 261 tries ÷ 1 128 shots	23.1 %
League mean, 18 clubs	26.8 %
Rank, 18 clubs	17th of 18

Weakness

Weak on the glass

24.7 %

Gaiatas Castellón win back 24.7 % of their misses. The league wins back 26.8 %. That is 16th of 18.

GCA 24.7 %

League 26.8 %

How we counted it

Gaiatas Castellón: 144 ÷ (144 + 440)	24.7 %
League mean, 18 clubs	26.8 %
Rank, 18 clubs	16th of 18

Weakness

Cold shooting

52.0 %

Gaiatas Castellón shoot 52.0 % effective. The league shoots 53.1 %. That is 13th of 18.

GCA 52.0 %

League 53.1 %

How we counted it

Gaiatas Castellón: (516 + ½ × 140) ÷ 1 128	52.0 %
League mean, 18 clubs	53.1 %
Rank, 18 clubs	13th of 18

Best shot-maker

Emanuele Navarro

#67 · SF

45/81shots

99points

+13.1vs expected

How we counted it

45 made of 81, 9 of them threes	45/81
Points: 2 × 45 + 9	99
His shots are worth (expected)	85.9
Above expected	99 − 85.9 = +13.1 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 13th of 18

GCA 52.0 %

League 53.1 %

How we counted it

Gaiatas Castellón: (516 + ½ × 140) ÷ 1 128	52.0 %
League mean, 18 clubs	53.1 %
Rank, 18 clubs	13th of 18

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 7th of 18

GCA 16.5 %

League 17.5 %

How we counted it

Gaiatas Castellón: 211 ÷ 1 275 possessions	16.5 %
League mean, 18 clubs	17.5 %
Rank, 18 clubs	7th of 18

Reboundsown misses won back · 16th of 18

GCA 24.7 %

League 26.8 %

How we counted it

Gaiatas Castellón: 144 ÷ (144 + 440)	24.7 %
League mean, 18 clubs	26.8 %
Rank, 18 clubs	16th of 18

Free throwstries per shot · 17th of 18

GCA 23.1 %

League 26.8 %

How we counted it

Gaiatas Castellón: 261 tries ÷ 1 128 shots	23.1 %
League mean, 18 clubs	26.8 %
Rank, 18 clubs	17th of 18

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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As expected

Right on what the shots are worth

+4.3

Over 8 games Gaiatas Castellón's shots were worth 536.7 points and they scored 541 from the floor: 0.5 a game in line with what than the league would do from the same shots.

+4.3

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 240 + 61	541
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	536.7
Shot-making	+4.3
A game	+0.54

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 17.

Gaiatas Castellón
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive44 % of 309 league shots	20	0.89	17.7
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 44 % of 475	2	0.88	1.8
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 44 % of 475	5	0.88	4.4
Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 44 % of 475	1	0.88	0.9
Mid-range · Post-up41 % of 202 league shots	16	0.81	13.0
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 42 % of 248	1	0.83	0.8
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 42 % of 248	1	0.83	0.8
Mid-range · Catch and shoot36 % of 313 league shots	13	0.72	9.4
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 437	2	0.72	1.4
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 437	6	0.72	4.3
Mid-range · Pull-up40 % of 662 league shots	42	0.80	33.8
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 897	8	0.82	6.6
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 897	11	0.82	9.1
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 897	1	0.82	0.8
Rim · Drive63 % of 1 355 league shots	80	1.25	100.1
Rim · Drive · second chance60 % of 233 league shots	11	1.20	13.2
Rim · Drive · fast break66 % of 487 league shots	22	1.33	29.2
Rim · Post-up60 % of 336 league shots	21	1.20	25.1
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 428	3	1.22	3.7
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 428	2	1.22	2.5
Rim · Post-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 428	1	1.22	1.2
Rim · Catch and shoot63 % of 313 league shots	23	1.25	28.8
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 469	3	1.22	3.6
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 469	5	1.22	6.1
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 469	1	1.22	1.2
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 224	10	1.29	12.9
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 224	3	1.29	3.9
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 277	8	1.06	8.5
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 277	2	1.06	2.1
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 277	3	1.06	3.2
Three · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 277	1	1.06	1.1
Three · Catch and shoot34 % of 2 083 league shots	112	1.02	114.5
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance33 % of 389 league shots	11	0.99	10.9
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break36 % of 392 league shots	23	1.07	24.6
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 2 915	3	1.02	3.1
Three · Pull-up34 % of 510 league shots	23	1.01	23.3
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 669	2	1.02	2.0
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 669	5	1.02	5.1
Three · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 669	2	1.02	2.0
Total adds up	509	1.05	536.7

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Where Gaiatas Castellón shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

509 of 509 shots shown

47.2%

240 of 509 from the floor, 8 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 121 / 185 65% · avg 2.1 ft 65 of the 121 makes assisted league 63% 242pts

MID 58 / 129 45% · avg 14.3 ft 25 of the 58 makes assisted league 40% 116pts

THREE 61 / 195 31% · avg 25.0 ft 55 of the 61 makes assisted league 34% 183pts

240 of 509 from the floor, 541 points, + 98 from the line

The dots cover 8 of 17 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

145 of 240 makes were assisted (60%): 65 + 25 + 55.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 8 games whose streams are stored, of 17 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 17 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Gaiatas Castellón

36% 25% 38%

League

36% 22% 42%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Gaiatas Castellón

30% 9% 40% 21%

League

32% 41% 19%

How we counted it

Gaiatas Castellón: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	155 drives + 45 post-ups + 202 catch and shoot + 107 pull-ups = 509

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Emanuele Navarro SF 32 y

Strong61–80

Age: 32
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

45/81 shots 85.9 expected 99 scored ▲ +13.1

Alejandro Ajiboye SG 21 y

Strong61–80

Age: 21
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 2

43/97 shots 101.8 expected 99 scored ▼ −2.8

Bautista Ramos PG 23 y

Strong61–80

Age: 23
Potential: Elite (81–99)
Form: -0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

41/91 shots 99.0 expected 96 scored ▼ −3.0

Carlos Akinjide SG 30 y

Solid41–60

Age: 30
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 3

34/79 shots 83.7 expected 75 scored ▼ −8.7

A man is listed from 50 shots.