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Gaivotas Rio de Janeiro

Founded 1926 in Rio de Janeiro

Ginásio da Guanabara, holding 10 000

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Ahead of its points

Gaivotas Rio de Janeiro's wins run ahead of its points

+3.8 wins

Gaivotas Rio de Janeiro's points say about 7 wins in 19 league games. It has 11. The table has been a little kind.

11Wins so far

7.2Points say

84.7Scored a game

87.7Allowed a game

−3.0Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 19 league games	1 610
Points allowed	1 667
Allowed ÷ scored	1.0354
To the power of 14	1.6276
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 1.6276)	38.06%
× 19 games played	7.23
Wins the points say	7.2 adds up

Wins so far	11
Difference	+3.8 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Gaivotas Rio de Janeiro won 3 and lost 1. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 19. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Weakness

Weak on the glass

21.6 %

Gaivotas Rio de Janeiro win back 21.6 % of their misses. The league wins back 26.2 %. That is 19th of 20.

GRJ 21.6 %

League 26.2 %

How we counted it

Gaivotas Rio de Janeiro: 135 ÷ (135 + 489)	21.6 %
League mean, 20 clubs	26.2 %
Rank, 20 clubs	19th of 20

Strength

Plenty of trips to the line

33.4

Gaivotas Rio de Janeiro attempt 33.4 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 31.4, so 3rd of 20.

GRJ 33.4 %

League 31.4 %

How we counted it

Gaivotas Rio de Janeiro: 401 tries ÷ 1 201 shots	33.4 %
League mean, 20 clubs	31.4 %
Rank, 20 clubs	3rd of 20

Strength

Safe with the ball

17.1 %

Gaivotas Rio de Janeiro give it away on 17.1 % of trips against the league's 18.5 %. Fewer is better: 4th of 20.

GRJ 17.1 %

League 18.5 %

How we counted it

Gaivotas Rio de Janeiro: 249 ÷ 1 454 possessions	17.1 %
League mean, 20 clubs	18.5 %
Rank, 20 clubs	4th of 20

Best shot-maker

Antonios Draškić

#89 · PG

32/61shots

72points

+2.8vs expected

How we counted it

32 made of 61, 8 of them threes	32/61
Points: 2 × 32 + 8	72
His shots are worth (expected)	69.2
Above expected	72 − 69.2 = +2.8 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 13th of 20

GRJ 54.3 %

League 54.5 %

How we counted it

Gaivotas Rio de Janeiro: (566 + ½ × 172) ÷ 1 201	54.3 %
League mean, 20 clubs	54.5 %
Rank, 20 clubs	13th of 20

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 4th of 20

GRJ 17.1 %

League 18.5 %

How we counted it

Gaivotas Rio de Janeiro: 249 ÷ 1 454 possessions	17.1 %
League mean, 20 clubs	18.5 %
Rank, 20 clubs	4th of 20

Reboundsown misses won back · 19th of 20

GRJ 21.6 %

League 26.2 %

How we counted it

Gaivotas Rio de Janeiro: 135 ÷ (135 + 489)	21.6 %
League mean, 20 clubs	26.2 %
Rank, 20 clubs	19th of 20

Free throwstries per shot · 3rd of 20

GRJ 33.4 %

League 31.4 %

How we counted it

Gaivotas Rio de Janeiro: 401 tries ÷ 1 201 shots	33.4 %
League mean, 20 clubs	31.4 %
Rank, 20 clubs	3rd of 20

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Unlucky so far

Your shots have not paid off

−25.6

Over 8 games Gaivotas Rio de Janeiro's shots were worth 552.6 points and they scored 527 from the floor: 3.2 a game worse than the league would do from the same shots.

−25.6

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 228 + 71	527
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	552.6
Shot-making	−25.6
A game	−3.20

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 19.

Gaivotas Rio de Janeiro
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive42 % of 288 league shots	10	0.85	8.5
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 428	2	0.87	1.7
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 428	6	0.87	5.2
Mid-range · Post-up39 % of 267 league shots	11	0.78	8.6
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 344	2	0.80	1.6
Mid-range · Catch and shoot39 % of 285 league shots	20	0.78	15.6
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 388	1	0.80	0.8
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 388	5	0.80	4.0
Mid-range · Pull-up39 % of 654 league shots	30	0.78	23.3
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 921	4	0.78	3.1
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 921	7	0.78	5.5
Rim · Drive61 % of 1 511 league shots	93	1.22	113.0
Rim · Drive · second chance58 % of 252 league shots	9	1.15	10.4
Rim · Drive · fast break64 % of 610 league shots	30	1.27	38.2
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 2 476	4	1.23	4.9
Rim · Post-up65 % of 376 league shots	22	1.29	28.4
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 484	4	1.29	5.1
Rim · Catch and shoot64 % of 431 league shots	19	1.28	24.3
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 678	4	1.28	5.1
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 678	9	1.28	11.5
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 678	1	1.28	1.3
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 296	6	1.26	7.5
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 296	2	1.26	2.5
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 296	6	1.26	7.5
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 297	10	1.13	11.3
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 297	2	1.13	2.3
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 297	1	1.13	1.1
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 4 266	1	1.05	1.1
Three · Catch and shoot34 % of 2 339 league shots	116	1.03	119.3
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance34 % of 333 league shots	19	1.03	19.5
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break36 % of 431 league shots	22	1.09	23.9
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 3 164	1	1.04	1.0
Three · Pull-up36 % of 560 league shots	21	1.07	22.5
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 786	5	1.08	5.4
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 786	6	1.08	6.5
Three · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 786	1	1.08	1.1
Total adds up	512	1.08	552.6

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Where Gaivotas Rio de Janeiro shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

576 of 576 shots shown

45.5%

262 of 576 from the floor, 9 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 144 / 243 59% · avg 2.0 ft 76 of the 144 makes assisted league 63% 288pts

MID 39 / 107 36% · avg 14.3 ft 19 of the 39 makes assisted league 41% 78pts

THREE 79 / 226 35% · avg 25.2 ft 72 of the 79 makes assisted league 36% 237pts

262 of 576 from the floor, 603 points, + 134 from the line

The dots cover 9 of 19 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

167 of 262 makes were assisted (64%): 76 + 19 + 72.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 8 games whose streams are stored, of 19 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 19 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Gaivotas Rio de Janeiro

41% 19% 40%

League

38% 20% 41%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Gaivotas Rio de Janeiro

33% 42% 17%

League

31% 8% 41% 19%

How we counted it

Gaivotas Rio de Janeiro: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	167 drives + 40 post-ups + 217 catch and shoot + 88 pull-ups = 512

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Antonios Draškić PG 24 y

Strong61–80

Age: 24
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 3

32/61 shots 69.2 expected 72 scored ▲ +2.8

Arnaldo Anyaegbu SG 27 y

Strong61–80

Age: 27
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 2

55/129 shots 136.3 expected 129 scored ▼ −7.3

Daniel Izaguirre PF 24 y

Strong61–80

Age: 24
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

35/78 shots 84.8 expected 76 scored ▼ −8.8

A man is listed from 50 shots.