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Galets Le Havre

Founded 1979 in Le Havre

Salle de la Jetée, holding 8 000

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Galets Le Havre's wins match its points

+0.7 wins

Galets Le Havre's points say about 7 wins in 15 league games. It has 8. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

8Wins so far

7.3Points say

92.0Scored a game

92.3Allowed a game

−0.3Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 15 league games	1 380
Points allowed	1 385
Allowed ÷ scored	1.0036
To the power of 14	1.0519
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 1.0519)	48.73%
× 15 games played	7.31
Wins the points say	7.3 adds up

Wins so far	8
Difference	+0.7 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Galets Le Havre won 2 and lost 1. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 15. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

A strong attack

118.3

Galets Le Havre score 118.3 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 114.5. That is 1st of 16.

GLH 118.3

League 114.5

How we counted it

100 × 1 380 points ÷ 1 167 possessions	118.3
League mean, 16 clubs	114.5
Rank, 16 clubs	1st of 16

Weakness

Few trips to the line

24.1

Galets Le Havre attempt 24.1 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 29.5, so 16th of 16.

GLH 24.1 %

League 29.5 %

How we counted it

Galets Le Havre: 247 tries ÷ 1 025 shots	24.1 %
League mean, 16 clubs	29.5 %
Rank, 16 clubs	16th of 16

Strength

Safe with the ball

17.0 %

Galets Le Havre give it away on 17.0 % of trips against the league's 18.4 %. Fewer is better: 2nd of 16.

GLH 17.0 %

League 18.4 %

How we counted it

Galets Le Havre: 198 ÷ 1 167 possessions	17.0 %
League mean, 16 clubs	18.4 %
Rank, 16 clubs	2nd of 16

Best shot-maker

Théo Onuoha

#43 · PF

41/68shots

98points

+21.1vs expected

How we counted it

41 made of 68, 16 of them threes	41/68
Points: 2 × 41 + 16	98
His shots are worth (expected)	76.9
Above expected	98 − 76.9 = +21.1 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 4th of 16

GLH 57.7 %

League 56.0 %

How we counted it

Galets Le Havre: (507 + ½ × 169) ÷ 1 025	57.7 %
League mean, 16 clubs	56.0 %
Rank, 16 clubs	4th of 16

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 2nd of 16

GLH 17.0 %

League 18.4 %

How we counted it

Galets Le Havre: 198 ÷ 1 167 possessions	17.0 %
League mean, 16 clubs	18.4 %
Rank, 16 clubs	2nd of 16

Reboundsown misses won back · 9th of 16

GLH 26.2 %

League 26.8 %

How we counted it

Galets Le Havre: 133 ÷ (133 + 374)	26.2 %
League mean, 16 clubs	26.8 %
Rank, 16 clubs	9th of 16

Free throwstries per shot · 16th of 16

GLH 24.1 %

League 29.5 %

How we counted it

Galets Le Havre: 247 tries ÷ 1 025 shots	24.1 %
League mean, 16 clubs	29.5 %
Rank, 16 clubs	16th of 16

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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As expected

Right on what the shots are worth

+9.9

Over 7 games Galets Le Havre's shots were worth 514.1 points and they scored 524 from the floor: 1.4 a game in line with what than the league would do from the same shots.

+9.9

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 224 + 76	524
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	514.1
Shot-making	+9.9
A game	+1.42

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 15.

Galets Le Havre
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 283	13	0.81	10.6
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 283	1	0.81	0.8
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 283	4	0.81	3.3
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 46 % of 230	12	0.91	11.0
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 46 % of 230	1	0.91	0.9
Mid-range · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 44 % of 220	13	0.87	11.3
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 44 % of 220	1	0.87	0.9
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 44 % of 220	2	0.87	1.7
Mid-range · Pull-up41 % of 482 league shots	26	0.81	21.1
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 42 % of 667	6	0.83	5.0
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 42 % of 667	4	0.83	3.3
Rim · Drive62 % of 1 130 league shots	69	1.24	85.4
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 1 788	12	1.28	15.4
Rim · Drive · fast break71 % of 422 league shots	26	1.41	36.7
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 1 788	4	1.28	5.1
Rim · Post-up64 % of 292 league shots	19	1.29	24.5
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 365	5	1.26	6.3
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 365	1	1.26	1.3
Rim · Catch and shoot63 % of 266 league shots	16	1.26	20.1
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 429	12	1.25	15.0
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 429	1	1.25	1.3
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 210	14	1.18	16.5
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 210	2	1.18	2.4
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 210	3	1.18	3.5
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 235	7	1.05	7.3
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 235	3	1.05	3.1
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 235	4	1.05	4.2
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 36 % of 2 919	4	1.07	4.3
Three · Catch and shoot37 % of 1 546 league shots	88	1.10	97.0
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance32 % of 243 league shots	19	0.95	18.1
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break39 % of 293 league shots	25	1.18	29.4
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 2 124	4	1.09	4.4
Three · Pull-up34 % of 400 league shots	29	1.01	29.4
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 535	4	1.04	4.2
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 535	8	1.04	8.3
Three · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 535	1	1.04	1.0
Total adds up	463	1.11	514.1

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Where Galets Le Havre shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

463 of 463 shots shown

48.4%

224 of 463 from the floor, 7 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 110 / 184 60% · avg 2.0 ft 69 of the 110 makes assisted league 64% 220pts

MID 38 / 83 46% · avg 14.4 ft 12 of the 38 makes assisted league 43% 76pts

THREE 76 / 196 39% · avg 25.3 ft 69 of the 76 makes assisted league 37% 228pts

224 of 463 from the floor, 524 points, + 77 from the line

The dots cover 7 of 15 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

150 of 224 makes were assisted (67%): 69 + 12 + 69.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 7 games whose streams are stored, of 15 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 15 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Galets Le Havre

40% 18% 42%

League

39% 20% 41%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Galets Le Havre

31% 9% 39% 21%

League

32% 9% 39% 20%

How we counted it

Galets Le Havre: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	143 drives + 42 post-ups + 181 catch and shoot + 97 pull-ups = 463

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Théo Onuoha PF 27 y

Strong61–80

Age: 27
Potential: Elite (81–99)
Form: 0.4
Contract ends: End of season 3

41/68 shots 76.9 expected 98 scored ▲ +21.1

Thibaut Mathieu SG 29 y

Strong61–80

Age: 29
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

35/67 shots 75.4 expected 85 scored ▲ +9.6

Claudio Brunet PG 22 y

Strong61–80

Age: 22
Potential: Elite (81–99)
Form: -0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

37/89 shots 97.4 expected 84 scored ▼ −13.4

A man is listed from 50 shots.