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Galpones Gálvez

Founded 1924 in Gálvez

Gimnasio de las Vías Viejas, holding 2 000

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Galpones Gálvez's wins match its points

−0.1 wins

Galpones Gálvez's points say about 8 wins in 22 league games. It has 8. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

8Wins so far

8.1Points say

73.5Scored a game

76.4Allowed a game

−2.9Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 22 league games	1 616
Points allowed	1 680
Allowed ÷ scored	1.0396
To the power of 14	1.7225
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 1.7225)	36.73%
× 22 games played	8.08
Wins the points say	8.1 adds up

Wins so far	8
Difference	−0.1 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Galpones Gálvez won 4 and lost 6. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 22. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Weakness

Cold shooting

47.9 %

Galpones Gálvez shoot 47.9 % effective. The league shoots 50.7 %. That is 12th of 12.

GGA 47.9 %

League 50.7 %

How we counted it

Galpones Gálvez: (597 + ½ × 195) ÷ 1 450	47.9 %
League mean, 12 clubs	50.7 %
Rank, 12 clubs	12th of 12

Weakness

A thin attack

100.0

Galpones Gálvez score 100.0 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 105.1. That is 11th of 12.

GGA 100.0

League 105.1

How we counted it

100 × 1 616 points ÷ 1 616 possessions	100.0
League mean, 12 clubs	105.1
Rank, 12 clubs	11th of 12

Weakness

Careless with the ball

17.3 %

Galpones Gálvez give it away on 17.3 % of trips against the league's 16.9 %. Fewer is better: 10th of 12.

GGA 17.3 %

League 16.9 %

How we counted it

Galpones Gálvez: 280 ÷ 1 616 possessions	17.3 %
League mean, 12 clubs	16.9 %
Rank, 12 clubs	10th of 12

Best shot-maker

Arnaldo Hein

#46 · SG

80/161shots

188points

+17.4vs expected

How we counted it

80 made of 161, 28 of them threes	80/161
Points: 2 × 80 + 28	188
His shots are worth (expected)	170.6
Above expected	188 − 170.6 = +17.4 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 12th of 12

GGA 47.9 %

League 50.7 %

How we counted it

Galpones Gálvez: (597 + ½ × 195) ÷ 1 450	47.9 %
League mean, 12 clubs	50.7 %
Rank, 12 clubs	12th of 12

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 10th of 12

GGA 17.3 %

League 16.9 %

How we counted it

Galpones Gálvez: 280 ÷ 1 616 possessions	17.3 %
League mean, 12 clubs	16.9 %
Rank, 12 clubs	10th of 12

Reboundsown misses won back · 4th of 12

GGA 26.4 %

League 26.0 %

How we counted it

Galpones Gálvez: 216 ÷ (216 + 602)	26.4 %
League mean, 12 clubs	26.0 %
Rank, 12 clubs	4th of 12

Free throwstries per shot · 9th of 12

GGA 20.7 %

League 22.8 %

How we counted it

Galpones Gálvez: 300 tries ÷ 1 450 shots	20.7 %
League mean, 12 clubs	22.8 %
Rank, 12 clubs	9th of 12

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Unlucky so far

Your shots have not paid off at all

−57.7

Over 9 games Galpones Gálvez's shots were worth 623.7 points and they scored 566 from the floor: 6.4 a game worse than the league would do from the same shots.

−57.7

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 244 + 78	566
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	623.7
Shot-making	−57.7
A game	−6.41

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 22.

Galpones Gálvez
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive38 % of 232 league shots	17	0.77	13.0
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 331	1	0.76	0.8
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 331	3	0.76	2.3
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 37 % of 1 482	11	0.73	8.0
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 37 % of 1 482	1	0.73	0.7
Mid-range · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 266	17	0.70	11.9
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 266	2	0.70	1.4
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 266	5	0.70	3.5
Mid-range · Pull-up38 % of 530 league shots	42	0.75	31.7
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 694	5	0.76	3.8
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 694	5	0.76	3.8
Rim · Drive61 % of 1 175 league shots	101	1.21	122.4
Rim · Drive · second chance57 % of 200 league shots	25	1.14	28.5
Rim · Drive · fast break67 % of 362 league shots	38	1.34	50.8
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 1 784	4	1.23	4.9
Rim · Post-up57 % of 256 league shots	21	1.14	24.0
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 54 % of 307	2	1.09	2.2
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 54 % of 307	1	1.09	1.1
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 318	12	1.25	14.9
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 318	1	1.25	1.2
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 318	5	1.25	6.2
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 2 559	7	1.22	8.5
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 2 559	2	1.22	2.4
Rim · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 2 559	2	1.22	2.4
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 34 % of 3 025	9	1.02	9.2
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 34 % of 3 025	3	1.02	3.1
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 34 % of 3 025	6	1.02	6.1
Three · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 34 % of 3 025	1	1.02	1.0
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 34 % of 3 025	1	1.02	1.0
Three · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 34 % of 3 025	1	1.02	1.0
Three · Catch and shoot35 % of 1 698 league shots	136	1.04	141.8
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance38 % of 308 league shots	33	1.13	37.3
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break36 % of 255 league shots	24	1.08	26.0
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 2 298	3	1.05	3.2
Three · Pull-up30 % of 374 league shots	38	0.91	34.8
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 526	4	0.97	3.9
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 526	5	0.97	4.9
Total adds up	594	1.05	623.7

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Where Galpones Gálvez shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

662 of 662 shots shown

41.1%

272 of 662 from the floor, 10 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 135 / 243 56% · avg 2.0 ft 70 of the 135 makes assisted league 61% 270pts

MID 48 / 124 39% · avg 14.5 ft 25 of the 48 makes assisted league 36% 96pts

THREE 89 / 295 30% · avg 25.1 ft 77 of the 89 makes assisted league 33% 267pts

272 of 662 from the floor, 633 points, + 97 from the line

The dots cover 10 of 22 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

172 of 272 makes were assisted (63%): 70 + 25 + 77.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 9 games whose streams are stored, of 22 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 22 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Galpones Gálvez

37% 18% 44%

League

36% 21% 43%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Galpones Gálvez

35% 40% 19%

League

33% 41% 19%

How we counted it

Galpones Gálvez: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	208 drives + 38 post-ups + 238 catch and shoot + 110 pull-ups = 594

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Arnaldo Hein SG 36 y

Solid41–60

Age: 36
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.3
Contract ends: End of season 4

80/161 shots 170.6 expected 188 scored ▲ +17.4

Dinos Pavićević SG 30 y

Solid41–60

Age: 30
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 4

34/78 shots 85.3 expected 80 scored ▼ −5.3

Cristóbal Kanat SF 26 y

Solid41–60

Age: 26
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 4

23/64 shots 65.7 expected 58 scored ▼ −7.7

Guido Cordeiro PG 22 y

Solid41–60

Age: 22
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 4

50/143 shots 150.6 expected 117 scored ▼ −33.6

A man is listed from 50 shots.