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Gardošani Zemun

Founded 1947 in Zemun

Dvorana pod Gardošem, holding 7 000

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Gardošani Zemun's wins match its points

+0.7 wins

Gardošani Zemun's points say about 3 wins in 15 league games. It has 4. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

4Wins so far

3.3Points say

81.9Scored a game

89.7Allowed a game

−7.7Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 15 league games	1 229
Points allowed	1 345
Allowed ÷ scored	1.0944
To the power of 14	3.5350
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 3.5350)	22.05%
× 15 games played	3.31
Wins the points say	3.3 adds up

Wins so far	4
Difference	+0.7 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Gardošani Zemun won 1 and lost 2. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 15. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Weakness

A leaky defence

118.5

Gardošani Zemun let in 118.5 per 100 trips against the league's 111.4. Lower is better: 16th of 16.

GAZ 118.5

League 111.4

How we counted it

100 × 1 345 allowed ÷ 1 135 possessions	118.5
League mean, 16 clubs	111.4
Rank, 16 clubs	16th of 16

Weakness

Careless with the ball

18.6 %

Gardošani Zemun give it away on 18.6 % of trips against the league's 17.2 %. Fewer is better: 15th of 16.

GAZ 18.6 %

League 17.2 %

How we counted it

Gardošani Zemun: 210 ÷ 1 132 possessions	18.6 %
League mean, 16 clubs	17.2 %
Rank, 16 clubs	15th of 16

Weakness

Weak on the glass

23.1 %

Gardošani Zemun win back 23.1 % of their misses. The league wins back 26.1 %. That is 14th of 16.

GAZ 23.1 %

League 26.1 %

How we counted it

Gardošani Zemun: 111 ÷ (111 + 370)	23.1 %
League mean, 16 clubs	26.1 %
Rank, 16 clubs	14th of 16

Best shot-maker

Severino Quintanilha

#22 · SG

45/88shots

107points

+13.5vs expected

How we counted it

45 made of 88, 17 of them threes	45/88
Points: 2 × 45 + 17	107
His shots are worth (expected)	93.5
Above expected	107 − 93.5 = +13.5 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 8th of 16

GAZ 53.8 %

League 53.8 %

How we counted it

Gardošani Zemun: (442 + ½ × 128) ÷ 940	53.8 %
League mean, 16 clubs	53.8 %
Rank, 16 clubs	8th of 16

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 15th of 16

GAZ 18.6 %

League 17.2 %

How we counted it

Gardošani Zemun: 210 ÷ 1 132 possessions	18.6 %
League mean, 16 clubs	17.2 %
Rank, 16 clubs	15th of 16

Reboundsown misses won back · 14th of 16

GAZ 23.1 %

League 26.1 %

How we counted it

Gardošani Zemun: 111 ÷ (111 + 370)	23.1 %
League mean, 16 clubs	26.1 %
Rank, 16 clubs	14th of 16

Free throwstries per shot · 5th of 16

GAZ 29.6 %

League 26.9 %

How we counted it

Gardošani Zemun: 278 tries ÷ 940 shots	29.6 %
League mean, 16 clubs	26.9 %
Rank, 16 clubs	5th of 16

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Lucky so far

Your shots have paid off a little

+13.3

Over 6 games Gardošani Zemun's shots were worth 393.7 points and they scored 407 from the floor: 2.2 a game better than the league would do from the same shots.

+13.3

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 179 + 49	407
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	393.7
Shot-making	+13.3
A game	+2.22

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 15.

Gardošani Zemun
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 275	7	0.67	4.7
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 275	2	0.67	1.3
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 275	3	0.67	2.0
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 37 % of 1 274	10	0.74	7.4
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 37 % of 1 274	1	0.74	0.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot45 % of 204 league shots	13	0.90	11.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 42 % of 277	4	0.84	3.4
Mid-range · Pull-up37 % of 418 league shots	25	0.74	18.5
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 552	2	0.72	1.4
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 552	1	0.72	0.7
Rim · Drive63 % of 1 033 league shots	78	1.26	98.3
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 1 613	9	1.28	11.5
Rim · Drive · fast break70 % of 387 league shots	16	1.41	22.5
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 1 613	3	1.28	3.8
Rim · Post-up59 % of 227 league shots	5	1.17	5.9
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 294	2	1.20	2.4
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 294	1	1.20	1.2
Rim · Catch and shoot67 % of 212 league shots	9	1.33	12.0
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 66 % of 352	3	1.33	4.0
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 66 % of 352	2	1.33	2.7
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 64 % of 2 435	9	1.27	11.5
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 64 % of 2 435	2	1.27	2.6
Rim · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 64 % of 2 435	1	1.27	1.3
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 208	9	1.01	9.1
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 208	2	1.01	2.0
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 208	4	1.01	4.0
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 2 721	1	1.06	1.1
Three · Catch and shoot36 % of 1 535 league shots	76	1.07	81.0
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance37 % of 248 league shots	14	1.11	15.6
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break37 % of 255 league shots	11	1.11	12.2
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 2 067	4	1.08	4.3
Three · Pull-up35 % of 321 league shots	22	1.05	23.0
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 437	2	0.99	2.0
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 437	6	0.99	5.9
Three · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 437	2	0.99	2.0
Total adds up	361	1.09	393.7

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Where Gardošani Zemun shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

421 of 421 shots shown

49.6%

209 of 421 from the floor, 7 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 109 / 158 69% · avg 1.9 ft 56 of the 109 makes assisted league 63% 218pts

MID 41 / 83 49% · avg 14.2 ft 20 of the 41 makes assisted league 38% 82pts

THREE 59 / 180 33% · avg 25.2 ft 55 of the 59 makes assisted league 35% 177pts

209 of 421 from the floor, 477 points, + 126 from the line

The dots cover 7 of 15 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

131 of 209 makes were assisted (63%): 56 + 20 + 55.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 6 games whose streams are stored, of 15 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 15 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Gardošani Zemun

39% 19% 42%

League

38% 20% 42%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Gardošani Zemun

37% 38% 20%

League

33% 42% 18%

How we counted it

Gardošani Zemun: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	133 drives + 20 post-ups + 136 catch and shoot + 72 pull-ups = 361

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Severino Quintanilha SG 28 y

Strong61–80

Age: 28
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 1

45/88 shots 93.5 expected 107 scored ▲ +13.5

Cormac Booth PG 30 y

Strong61–80

Age: 30
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

41/75 shots 81.9 expected 91 scored ▲ +9.1

A man is listed from 50 shots.