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Garnai Elektrėnai

Founded 1984 in Elektrėnai

Elektrėnų marių salė, holding 4 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Ahead of its points

Garnai Elektrėnai's wins run ahead of its points

+1.1 wins

Garnai Elektrėnai's points say about 9 wins in 13 league games. It has 10. The table has been a little kind.

10Wins so far

8.9Points say

86.9Scored a game

82.2Allowed a game

+4.7Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 13 league games	1 130
Points allowed	1 069
Allowed ÷ scored	0.9460
To the power of 14	0.4598
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.4598)	68.50%
× 13 games played	8.91
Wins the points say	8.9 adds up

Wins so far	10
Difference	+1.1 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Garnai Elektrėnai won 3 and lost 2. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 13. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

A strong attack

114.8

Garnai Elektrėnai score 114.8 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 110.1. That is 1st of 14.

GAE 114.8

League 110.1

How we counted it

100 × 1 130 points ÷ 984 possessions	114.8
League mean, 14 clubs	110.1
Rank, 14 clubs	1st of 14

Strength

Strong on the glass

31.4 %

Garnai Elektrėnai win back 31.4 % of their misses. The league wins back 25.7 %. That is 1st of 14.

GAE 31.4 %

League 25.7 %

How we counted it

Garnai Elektrėnai: 141 ÷ (141 + 308)	31.4 %
League mean, 14 clubs	25.7 %
Rank, 14 clubs	1st of 14

Strength

Plenty of trips to the line

29.8

Garnai Elektrėnai attempt 29.8 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 27.2, so 2nd of 14.

GAE 29.8 %

League 27.2 %

How we counted it

Garnai Elektrėnai: 258 tries ÷ 865 shots	29.8 %
League mean, 14 clubs	27.2 %
Rank, 14 clubs	2nd of 14

Best shot-maker

Gailius Budrys

#88 · SF

38/52shots

87points

+29.2vs expected

How we counted it

38 made of 52, 11 of them threes	38/52
Points: 2 × 38 + 11	87
His shots are worth (expected)	57.8
Above expected	87 − 57.8 = +29.2 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 7th of 14

GAE 53.9 %

League 53.7 %

How we counted it

Garnai Elektrėnai: (400 + ½ × 133) ÷ 865	53.9 %
League mean, 14 clubs	53.7 %
Rank, 14 clubs	7th of 14

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 6th of 14

GAE 17.2 %

League 17.7 %

How we counted it

Garnai Elektrėnai: 169 ÷ 984 possessions	17.2 %
League mean, 14 clubs	17.7 %
Rank, 14 clubs	6th of 14

Reboundsown misses won back · 1st of 14

GAE 31.4 %

League 25.7 %

How we counted it

Garnai Elektrėnai: 141 ÷ (141 + 308)	31.4 %
League mean, 14 clubs	25.7 %
Rank, 14 clubs	1st of 14

Free throwstries per shot · 2nd of 14

GAE 29.8 %

League 27.2 %

How we counted it

Garnai Elektrėnai: 258 tries ÷ 865 shots	29.8 %
League mean, 14 clubs	27.2 %
Rank, 14 clubs	2nd of 14

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Unlucky so far

Your shots have not paid off

−27.5

Over 6 games Garnai Elektrėnai's shots were worth 430.5 points and they scored 403 from the floor: 4.6 a game worse than the league would do from the same shots.

−27.5

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 176 + 51	403
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	430.5
Shot-making	−27.5
A game	−4.59

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 13.

Garnai Elektrėnai
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 232	7	0.80	5.6
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 232	3	0.80	2.4
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 232	3	0.80	2.4
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 40 % of 1 073	5	0.80	4.0
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 40 % of 1 073	3	0.80	2.4
Mid-range · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 44 % of 234	10	0.87	8.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 44 % of 234	5	0.87	4.4
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 44 % of 234	4	0.87	3.5
Mid-range · Pull-up41 % of 357 league shots	15	0.81	12.2
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 476	5	0.78	3.9
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 476	5	0.78	3.9
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 476	1	0.78	0.8
Rim · Drive61 % of 793 league shots	69	1.22	84.2
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 1 247	12	1.21	14.5
Rim · Drive · fast break63 % of 303 league shots	24	1.25	30.1
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 1 247	1	1.21	1.2
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 248	18	1.28	23.1
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 248	2	1.28	2.6
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 248	2	1.28	2.6
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 328	23	1.24	28.5
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 328	5	1.24	6.2
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 328	4	1.24	5.0
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 328	1	1.24	1.2
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 62 % of 1 965	5	1.23	6.2
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 62 % of 1 965	3	1.23	3.7
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 62 % of 1 965	1	1.23	1.2
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 2 240	8	1.04	8.3
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 2 240	2	1.04	2.1
Three · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 2 240	1	1.04	1.0
Three · Catch and shoot35 % of 1 231 league shots	81	1.06	85.9
Three · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 1 688	14	1.03	14.4
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break33 % of 234 league shots	20	0.99	19.7
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 1 688	3	1.03	3.1
Three · Pull-up33 % of 264 league shots	23	0.98	22.5
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 364	4	1.01	4.0
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 364	5	1.01	5.0
Total adds up	397	1.08	430.5

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Where Garnai Elektrėnai shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

397 of 397 shots shown

44.3%

176 of 397 from the floor, 6 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 99 / 170 58% · avg 2.0 ft 55 of the 99 makes assisted league 62% 198pts

MID 26 / 66 39% · avg 14.3 ft 13 of the 26 makes assisted league 41% 52pts

THREE 51 / 161 32% · avg 25.2 ft 45 of the 51 makes assisted league 35% 153pts

176 of 397 from the floor, 403 points, + 92 from the line

The dots cover 6 of 13 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

113 of 176 makes were assisted (64%): 55 + 13 + 45.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 6 games whose streams are stored, of 13 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 13 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Garnai Elektrėnai

43% 17% 41%

League

37% 20% 42%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Garnai Elektrėnai

33% 43% 17%

League

31% 43% 19%

How we counted it

Garnai Elektrėnai: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	130 drives + 30 post-ups + 170 catch and shoot + 67 pull-ups = 397

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Gailius Budrys SF 31 y

Solid41–60

Age: 31
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

38/52 shots 57.8 expected 87 scored ▲ +29.2

Javier Garrett SG 23 y

Strong61–80

Age: 23
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 3

44/92 shots 97.2 expected 102 scored ▲ +4.8

Simonas Marcinkevičius PG 22 y

Solid41–60

Age: 22
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

22/53 shots 58.5 expected 52 scored ▼ −6.5

A man is listed from 50 shots.