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Garrofers Tarragona

Founded 1943 in Tarragona

Pavelló del Serrallo, holding 5 000

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Ahead of its points

Garrofers Tarragona's wins run ahead of its points

+1.5 wins

Garrofers Tarragona's points say about 3 wins in 17 league games. It has 5. The table has been a little kind.

5Wins so far

3.5Points say

76.2Scored a game

83.9Allowed a game

−7.8Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 17 league games	1 295
Points allowed	1 427
Allowed ÷ scored	1.1019
To the power of 14	3.8919
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 3.8919)	20.44%
× 17 games played	3.48
Wins the points say	3.5 adds up

Wins so far	5
Difference	+1.5 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Garrofers Tarragona won 1 and lost 2. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 17. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Weakness

A thin attack

102.0

Garrofers Tarragona score 102.0 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 110.2. That is 18th of 18.

GTA 102.0

League 110.2

How we counted it

100 × 1 295 points ÷ 1 269 possessions	102.0
League mean, 18 clubs	110.2
Rank, 18 clubs	18th of 18

Weakness

Cold shooting

48.9 %

Garrofers Tarragona shoot 48.9 % effective. The league shoots 53.1 %. That is 18th of 18.

GTA 48.9 %

League 53.1 %

How we counted it

Garrofers Tarragona: (478 + ½ × 154) ÷ 1 135	48.9 %
League mean, 18 clubs	53.1 %
Rank, 18 clubs	18th of 18

Weakness

Few trips to the line

23.5

Garrofers Tarragona attempt 23.5 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 26.8, so 15th of 18.

GTA 23.5 %

League 26.8 %

How we counted it

Garrofers Tarragona: 267 tries ÷ 1 135 shots	23.5 %
League mean, 18 clubs	26.8 %
Rank, 18 clubs	15th of 18

Best shot-maker

Gennaro Bermejo

#3 · SG

46/93shots

104points

+7.4vs expected

How we counted it

46 made of 93, 12 of them threes	46/93
Points: 2 × 46 + 12	104
His shots are worth (expected)	96.6
Above expected	104 − 96.6 = +7.4 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 18th of 18

GTA 48.9 %

League 53.1 %

How we counted it

Garrofers Tarragona: (478 + ½ × 154) ÷ 1 135	48.9 %
League mean, 18 clubs	53.1 %
Rank, 18 clubs	18th of 18

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 6th of 18

GTA 16.5 %

League 17.5 %

How we counted it

Garrofers Tarragona: 209 ÷ 1 269 possessions	16.5 %
League mean, 18 clubs	17.5 %
Rank, 18 clubs	6th of 18

Reboundsown misses won back · 9th of 18

GTA 26.2 %

League 26.8 %

How we counted it

Garrofers Tarragona: 167 ÷ (167 + 470)	26.2 %
League mean, 18 clubs	26.8 %
Rank, 18 clubs	9th of 18

Free throwstries per shot · 15th of 18

GTA 23.5 %

League 26.8 %

How we counted it

Garrofers Tarragona: 267 tries ÷ 1 135 shots	23.5 %
League mean, 18 clubs	26.8 %
Rank, 18 clubs	15th of 18

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Unlucky so far

Your shots have not paid off at all

−53.8

Over 8 games Garrofers Tarragona's shots were worth 530.8 points and they scored 477 from the floor: 6.7 a game worse than the league would do from the same shots.

−53.8

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 208 + 61	477
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	530.8
Shot-making	−53.8
A game	−6.72

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 17.

Garrofers Tarragona
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive44 % of 309 league shots	17	0.89	15.1
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 44 % of 475	2	0.88	1.8
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 44 % of 475	4	0.88	3.5
Mid-range · Post-up41 % of 202 league shots	15	0.81	12.2
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 42 % of 248	1	0.83	0.8
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 42 % of 248	1	0.83	0.8
Mid-range · Catch and shoot36 % of 313 league shots	24	0.72	17.3
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 437	2	0.72	1.4
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 437	3	0.72	2.2
Mid-range · Pull-up40 % of 662 league shots	42	0.80	33.7
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 897	6	0.82	4.9
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 897	5	0.82	4.1
Rim · Drive63 % of 1 355 league shots	65	1.25	81.4
Rim · Drive · second chance60 % of 233 league shots	15	1.20	18.0
Rim · Drive · fast break66 % of 487 league shots	18	1.33	23.9
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 2 154	5	1.26	6.3
Rim · Post-up60 % of 336 league shots	20	1.20	23.9
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 428	1	1.22	1.2
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 428	1	1.22	1.2
Rim · Catch and shoot63 % of 313 league shots	17	1.25	21.3
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 469	3	1.22	3.6
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 469	4	1.22	4.9
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 469	1	1.22	1.2
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 224	5	1.29	6.4
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 224	1	1.29	1.3
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 224	2	1.29	2.6
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 277	9	1.06	9.5
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 277	1	1.06	1.1
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 277	3	1.06	3.2
Three · Catch and shoot34 % of 2 083 league shots	124	1.02	126.8
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance33 % of 389 league shots	27	0.99	26.7
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break36 % of 392 league shots	25	1.07	26.8
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 2 915	3	1.02	3.1
Three · Pull-up34 % of 510 league shots	30	1.01	30.4
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 669	4	1.02	4.1
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 669	3	1.02	3.1
Three · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 669	1	1.02	1.0
Total adds up	510	1.04	530.8

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Where Garrofers Tarragona shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

510 of 510 shots shown

40.8%

208 of 510 from the floor, 8 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 100 / 158 63% · avg 1.9 ft 50 of the 100 makes assisted league 63% 200pts

MID 47 / 122 39% · avg 14.6 ft 16 of the 47 makes assisted league 40% 94pts

THREE 61 / 230 27% · avg 25.2 ft 56 of the 61 makes assisted league 34% 183pts

208 of 510 from the floor, 477 points, + 94 from the line

The dots cover 8 of 17 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

122 of 208 makes were assisted (59%): 50 + 16 + 56.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 8 games whose streams are stored, of 17 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 17 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Garrofers Tarragona

31% 24% 45%

League

36% 22% 42%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Garrofers Tarragona

27% 46% 19%

League

32% 41% 19%

How we counted it

Garrofers Tarragona: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	139 drives + 39 post-ups + 233 catch and shoot + 99 pull-ups = 510

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Gennaro Bermejo SG 22 y

Strong61–80

Age: 22
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.4
Contract ends: End of season 3

46/93 shots 96.6 expected 104 scored ▲ +7.4

Aleix Dağ SF 20 y

Solid41–60

Age: 20
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

31/80 shots 84.8 expected 77 scored ▼ −7.8

Narciso Carrasco SG 23 y

Solid41–60

Age: 23
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: -0.4
Contract ends: End of season 3

18/53 shots 57.3 expected 43 scored ▼ −14.3

Boris Karataş PG 23 y

Strong61–80

Age: 23
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.2
Contract ends: End of season 1

42/109 shots 111.2 expected 96 scored ▼ −15.2

A man is listed from 50 shots.