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Gefyrades Arta

Founded 1937 in Arta

Gymnastirio tou Arachthou, holding 2 000

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Gefyrades Arta's wins match its points

+0.9 wins

Gefyrades Arta's points say about 9 wins in 13 league games. It has 10. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

10Wins so far

9.1Points say

82.4Scored a game

77.6Allowed a game

+4.8Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 13 league games	1 071
Points allowed	1 009
Allowed ÷ scored	0.9421
To the power of 14	0.4339
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.4339)	69.74%
× 13 games played	9.07
Wins the points say	9.1 adds up

Wins so far	10
Difference	+0.9 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Gefyrades Arta won 1 and lost 0. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 13. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

Safe with the ball

15.0 %

Gefyrades Arta give it away on 15.0 % of trips against the league's 16.7 %. Fewer is better: 2nd of 14.

GEA 15.0 %

League 16.7 %

How we counted it

Gefyrades Arta: 145 ÷ 966 possessions	15.0 %
League mean, 14 clubs	16.7 %
Rank, 14 clubs	2nd of 14

Strength

Plenty of trips to the line

26.9

Gefyrades Arta attempt 26.9 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 22.4, so 2nd of 14.

GEA 26.9 %

League 22.4 %

How we counted it

Gefyrades Arta: 236 tries ÷ 877 shots	26.9 %
League mean, 14 clubs	22.4 %
Rank, 14 clubs	2nd of 14

Strength

A strong attack

110.9

Gefyrades Arta score 110.9 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 106.1. That is 3rd of 14.

GEA 110.9

League 106.1

How we counted it

100 × 1 071 points ÷ 966 possessions	110.9
League mean, 14 clubs	106.1
Rank, 14 clubs	3rd of 14

Best shot-maker

Telemachos Mrkonjić

#12 · PG

26/54shots

62points

+5.1vs expected

How we counted it

26 made of 54, 10 of them threes	26/54
Points: 2 × 26 + 10	62
His shots are worth (expected)	56.9
Above expected	62 − 56.9 = +5.1 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 9th of 14

GEA 51.7 %

League 51.4 %

How we counted it

Gefyrades Arta: (398 + ½ × 110) ÷ 877	51.7 %
League mean, 14 clubs	51.4 %
Rank, 14 clubs	9th of 14

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 2nd of 14

GEA 15.0 %

League 16.7 %

How we counted it

Gefyrades Arta: 145 ÷ 966 possessions	15.0 %
League mean, 14 clubs	16.7 %
Rank, 14 clubs	2nd of 14

Reboundsown misses won back · 4th of 14

GEA 28.1 %

League 25.5 %

How we counted it

Gefyrades Arta: 131 ÷ (131 + 335)	28.1 %
League mean, 14 clubs	25.5 %
Rank, 14 clubs	4th of 14

Free throwstries per shot · 2nd of 14

GEA 26.9 %

League 22.4 %

How we counted it

Gefyrades Arta: 236 tries ÷ 877 shots	26.9 %
League mean, 14 clubs	22.4 %
Rank, 14 clubs	2nd of 14

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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As expected

Right on what the shots are worth

−0.9

Over 6 games Gefyrades Arta's shots were worth 403.9 points and they scored 403 from the floor: 0.1 a game in line with what than the league would do from the same shots.

−0.9

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 175 + 53	403
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	403.9
Shot-making	−0.9
A game	−0.14

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 13.

Gefyrades Arta
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 284	16	0.61	9.8
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 284	3	0.61	1.8
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 284	7	0.61	4.3
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 36 % of 1 236	14	0.72	10.1
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 36 % of 1 236	1	0.72	0.7
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 36 % of 1 236	3	0.72	2.2
Mid-range · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 232	13	0.82	10.6
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 232	3	0.82	2.5
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 232	3	0.82	2.5
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 232	1	0.82	0.8
Mid-range · Pull-up37 % of 406 league shots	40	0.75	29.9
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 541	8	0.73	5.8
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 541	4	0.73	2.9
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 541	1	0.73	0.7
Rim · Drive60 % of 806 league shots	57	1.20	68.3
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 1 259	18	1.24	22.3
Rim · Drive · fast break68 % of 271 league shots	18	1.36	24.4
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 1 259	3	1.24	3.7
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 63 % of 1 796	11	1.25	13.8
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 63 % of 1 796	1	1.25	1.3
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 63 % of 1 796	1	1.25	1.3
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 232	10	1.27	12.7
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 232	3	1.27	3.8
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 63 % of 1 796	5	1.25	6.3
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 63 % of 1 796	3	1.25	3.8
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 34 % of 2 397	10	1.03	10.3
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 34 % of 2 397	2	1.03	2.1
Three · Catch and shoot34 % of 1 351 league shots	69	1.02	70.3
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance32 % of 216 league shots	11	0.96	10.5
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break39 % of 228 league shots	14	1.18	16.6
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 1 829	7	1.04	7.3
Three · Pull-up33 % of 312 league shots	32	1.00	32.0
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 411	4	0.95	3.8
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 411	5	0.95	4.7
Total adds up	401	1.01	403.9

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Where Gefyrades Arta shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

401 of 401 shots shown

43.6%

175 of 401 from the floor, 6 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 77 / 130 59% · avg 1.9 ft 40 of the 77 makes assisted league 62% 154pts

MID 45 / 117 39% · avg 14.3 ft 16 of the 45 makes assisted league 37% 90pts

THREE 53 / 154 34% · avg 25.3 ft 43 of the 53 makes assisted league 34% 159pts

175 of 401 from the floor, 403 points, + 91 from the line

The dots cover 6 of 13 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

99 of 175 makes were assisted (57%): 40 + 16 + 43.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 6 games whose streams are stored, of 13 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 13 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Gefyrades Arta

32% 29% 38%

League

33% 23% 44%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Gefyrades Arta

33% 33% 25%

League

31% 42% 20%

Gefyrades Arta lean on pull-ups: 25.4 % of its shots against the league's 19.6 %.

How we counted it

Gefyrades Arta: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	134 drives + 31 post-ups + 134 catch and shoot + 102 pull-ups = 401

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Telemachos Mrkonjić PG 22 y

Solid41–60

Age: 22
Potential: Elite (81–99)
Form: 0.6
Contract ends: End of season 3

26/54 shots 56.9 expected 62 scored ▲ +5.1

Derrick Gallagher Injured PG 36 y

Strong61–80

Age: 36
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 4

43/94 shots 96.2 expected 101 scored ▲ +4.8

Eleftherios Giwa SG 22 y

Solid41–60

Age: 22
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 2

40/92 shots 88.5 expected 92 scored ▲ +3.5

A man is listed from 50 shots.