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Gozdarji Kočevje

Founded 1947 in Kočevje

Dvorana ob Rinži, holding 2 000

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Ahead of its points

Gozdarji Kočevje's wins run ahead of its points

+1.8 wins

Gozdarji Kočevje's points say about 14 wins in 18 league games. It has 16. The table has been a little kind.

16Wins so far

14.2Points say

79.7Scored a game

72.6Allowed a game

+7.2Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 18 league games	1 435
Points allowed	1 306
Allowed ÷ scored	0.9101
To the power of 14	0.2675
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.2675)	78.90%
× 18 games played	14.20
Wins the points say	14.2 adds up

Wins so far	16
Difference	+1.8 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Gozdarji Kočevje won 7 and lost 0. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 18. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

A strong attack

109.6

Gozdarji Kočevje score 109.6 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 105.9. That is 2nd of 10.

GOK 109.6

League 105.9

How we counted it

100 × 1 435 points ÷ 1 309 possessions	109.6
League mean, 10 clubs	105.9
Rank, 10 clubs	2nd of 10

Strength

A solid defence

100.4

Gozdarji Kočevje let in 100.4 per 100 trips against the league's 105.9. Lower is better: 2nd of 10.

GOK 100.4

League 105.9

How we counted it

100 × 1 306 allowed ÷ 1 301 possessions	100.4
League mean, 10 clubs	105.9
Rank, 10 clubs	2nd of 10

Strength

Hot shooting

51.9 %

Gozdarji Kočevje shoot 51.9 % effective. The league shoots 51.1 %. That is 3rd of 10.

GOK 51.9 %

League 51.1 %

How we counted it

Gozdarji Kočevje: (530 + ½ × 147) ÷ 1 162	51.9 %
League mean, 10 clubs	51.1 %
Rank, 10 clubs	3rd of 10

Best shot-maker

Andrej Tavčar

#53 · SF

31/52shots

73points

+19.3vs expected

How we counted it

31 made of 52, 11 of them threes	31/52
Points: 2 × 31 + 11	73
His shots are worth (expected)	53.7
Above expected	73 − 53.7 = +19.3 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 3rd of 10

GOK 51.9 %

League 51.1 %

How we counted it

Gozdarji Kočevje: (530 + ½ × 147) ÷ 1 162	51.9 %
League mean, 10 clubs	51.1 %
Rank, 10 clubs	3rd of 10

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 3rd of 10

GOK 15.8 %

League 16.8 %

How we counted it

Gozdarji Kočevje: 207 ÷ 1 309 possessions	15.8 %
League mean, 10 clubs	16.8 %
Rank, 10 clubs	3rd of 10

Reboundsown misses won back · 5th of 10

GOK 26.9 %

League 26.2 %

How we counted it

Gozdarji Kočevje: 168 ÷ (168 + 456)	26.9 %
League mean, 10 clubs	26.2 %
Rank, 10 clubs	5th of 10

Free throwstries per shot · 3rd of 10

GOK 26.1 %

League 23.3 %

How we counted it

Gozdarji Kočevje: 303 tries ÷ 1 162 shots	26.1 %
League mean, 10 clubs	23.3 %
Rank, 10 clubs	3rd of 10

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Lucky so far

Your shots have paid off a little

+24.5

Over 8 games Gozdarji Kočevje's shots were worth 501.5 points and they scored 526 from the floor: 3.1 a game better than the league would do from the same shots.

+24.5

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 230 + 66	526
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	501.5
Shot-making	+24.5
A game	+3.07

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 18.

Gozdarji Kočevje
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 246	18	0.68	12.3
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 246	2	0.68	1.4
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 246	4	0.68	2.7
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 38 % of 1 105	11	0.76	8.4
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 38 % of 1 105	1	0.76	0.8
Mid-range · Catch and shoot45 % of 200 league shots	9	0.89	8.0
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 257	2	0.86	1.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 257	2	0.86	1.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 257	1	0.86	0.9
Mid-range · Pull-up36 % of 359 league shots	48	0.73	35.0
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 461	6	0.74	4.4
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 461	10	0.74	7.4
Rim · Drive58 % of 818 league shots	85	1.17	99.3
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 1 282	11	1.20	13.2
Rim · Drive · fast break65 % of 266 league shots	31	1.29	40.1
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 1 282	4	1.20	4.8
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 211	23	1.19	27.5
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 211	1	1.19	1.2
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 233	15	1.18	17.8
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 233	1	1.18	1.2
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 233	4	1.18	4.7
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 812	11	1.20	13.2
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 812	2	1.20	2.4
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 812	7	1.20	8.4
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 2 223	8	0.98	7.9
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 2 223	1	0.98	1.0
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 2 223	2	0.98	2.0
Three · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 2 223	2	0.98	2.0
Three · Catch and shoot33 % of 1 292 league shots	96	0.98	94.3
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance32 % of 220 league shots	18	0.95	17.2
Three · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 1 717	7	0.99	6.9
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 1 717	1	0.99	1.0
Three · Pull-up34 % of 268 league shots	39	1.02	39.7
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 368	4	0.99	4.0
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 368	6	0.99	6.0
Three · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 368	1	0.99	1.0
Total adds up	494	1.02	501.5

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Where Gozdarji Kočevje shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

494 of 494 shots shown

46.6%

230 of 494 from the floor, 8 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 118 / 195 61% · avg 2.0 ft 41 of the 118 makes assisted league 61% 236pts

MID 46 / 114 40% · avg 14.3 ft 12 of the 46 makes assisted league 38% 92pts

THREE 66 / 185 36% · avg 25.1 ft 55 of the 66 makes assisted league 33% 198pts

230 of 494 from the floor, 526 points, + 117 from the line

The dots cover 8 of 18 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

108 of 230 makes were assisted (47%): 41 + 12 + 55.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 8 games whose streams are stored, of 18 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 18 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Gozdarji Kočevje

39% 23% 37%

League

35% 21% 43%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Gozdarji Kočevje

34% 32% 27%

League

32% 43% 18%

Gozdarji Kočevje lean on pull-ups: 27.1 % of its shots against the league's 17.8 %.

How we counted it

Gozdarji Kočevje: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	168 drives + 36 post-ups + 156 catch and shoot + 134 pull-ups = 494

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Andrej Tavčar SF 21 y

Solid41–60

Age: 21
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 2

31/52 shots 53.7 expected 73 scored ▲ +19.3

Miha Vaupotič SG 23 y

Strong61–80

Age: 23
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.5
Contract ends: End of season 3

80/174 shots 180.9 expected 189 scored ▲ +8.1

Pavel Hein SG 26 y

Solid41–60

Age: 26
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: -0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

26/56 shots 56.7 expected 58 scored ▲ +1.3

A man is listed from 50 shots.