Manage a club, start free

Grnčari Kruševac

Founded 1961 in Kruševac

Dvorana na Rasini, holding 6 500

⁠

Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

See all terms

Where the points say

Grnčari Kruševac's wins match its points

−0.1 wins

Grnčari Kruševac's points say about 12 wins in 15 league games. It has 12. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

12Wins so far

12.1Points say

88.9Scored a game

80.2Allowed a game

+8.7Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 15 league games	1 334
Points allowed	1 203
Allowed ÷ scored	0.9018
To the power of 14	0.2353
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.2353)	80.96%
× 15 games played	12.14
Wins the points say	12.1 adds up

Wins so far	12
Difference	−0.1 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Grnčari Kruševac won 2 and lost 1. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 15. It is final when the season closes.

⁠

The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

See all terms

Strength

Plenty of trips to the line

31.0

Grnčari Kruševac attempt 31.0 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 26.9, so 1st of 16.

GRK 31.0 %

League 26.9 %

How we counted it

Grnčari Kruševac: 311 tries ÷ 1 002 shots	31.0 %
League mean, 16 clubs	26.9 %
Rank, 16 clubs	1st of 16

Strength

Strong on the glass

31.2 %

Grnčari Kruševac win back 31.2 % of their misses. The league wins back 26.1 %. That is 2nd of 16.

GRK 31.2 %

League 26.1 %

How we counted it

Grnčari Kruševac: 159 ÷ (159 + 350)	31.2 %
League mean, 16 clubs	26.1 %
Rank, 16 clubs	2nd of 16

Strength

A strong attack

117.6

Grnčari Kruševac score 117.6 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 111.4. That is 3rd of 16.

GRK 117.6

League 111.4

How we counted it

100 × 1 334 points ÷ 1 134 possessions	117.6
League mean, 16 clubs	111.4
Rank, 16 clubs	3rd of 16

Best shot-maker

Arsen Rašić

#68 · SG

59/111shots

143points

+20.9vs expected

How we counted it

59 made of 111, 25 of them threes	59/111
Points: 2 × 59 + 25	143
His shots are worth (expected)	122.1
Above expected	143 − 122.1 = +20.9 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 6th of 16

GRK 54.9 %

League 53.8 %

How we counted it

Grnčari Kruševac: (479 + ½ × 143) ÷ 1 002	54.9 %
League mean, 16 clubs	53.8 %
Rank, 16 clubs	6th of 16

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 7th of 16

GRK 16.9 %

League 17.2 %

How we counted it

Grnčari Kruševac: 192 ÷ 1 134 possessions	16.9 %
League mean, 16 clubs	17.2 %
Rank, 16 clubs	7th of 16

Reboundsown misses won back · 2nd of 16

GRK 31.2 %

League 26.1 %

How we counted it

Grnčari Kruševac: 159 ÷ (159 + 350)	31.2 %
League mean, 16 clubs	26.1 %
Rank, 16 clubs	2nd of 16

Free throwstries per shot · 1st of 16

GRK 31.0 %

League 26.9 %

How we counted it

Grnčari Kruševac: 311 tries ÷ 1 002 shots	31.0 %
League mean, 16 clubs	26.9 %
Rank, 16 clubs	1st of 16

⁠

Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

See all terms

Unlucky so far

Your shots have not paid off

−15.8

Over 7 games Grnčari Kruševac's shots were worth 515.8 points and they scored 500 from the floor: 2.3 a game worse than the league would do from the same shots.

−15.8

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 217 + 66	500
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	515.8
Shot-making	−15.8
A game	−2.25

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 15.

Grnčari Kruševac
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 275	16	0.67	10.7
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 275	5	0.67	3.3
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 275	4	0.67	2.7
Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 275	1	0.67	0.7
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 37 % of 1 274	15	0.74	11.2
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 37 % of 1 274	2	0.74	1.5
Mid-range · Catch and shoot45 % of 204 league shots	15	0.90	13.5
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 42 % of 277	1	0.84	0.8
Mid-range · Pull-up37 % of 418 league shots	23	0.74	17.1
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 552	8	0.72	5.8
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 552	4	0.72	2.9
Rim · Drive63 % of 1 033 league shots	72	1.26	90.7
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 1 613	10	1.28	12.8
Rim · Drive · fast break70 % of 387 league shots	35	1.41	49.2
Rim · Post-up59 % of 227 league shots	21	1.17	24.6
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 294	9	1.20	10.8
Rim · Post-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 294	1	1.20	1.2
Rim · Catch and shoot67 % of 212 league shots	18	1.33	23.9
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 66 % of 352	7	1.33	9.3
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 66 % of 352	6	1.33	8.0
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 66 % of 352	1	1.33	1.3
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 64 % of 2 435	10	1.27	12.7
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 64 % of 2 435	2	1.27	2.6
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 64 % of 2 435	2	1.27	2.6
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 208	5	1.01	5.0
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 208	3	1.01	3.0
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 208	1	1.01	1.0
Three · Catch and shoot36 % of 1 535 league shots	110	1.07	117.2
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance37 % of 248 league shots	21	1.11	23.4
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break37 % of 255 league shots	15	1.11	16.6
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 2 067	2	1.08	2.2
Three · Pull-up35 % of 321 league shots	14	1.05	14.7
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 437	7	0.99	6.9
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 437	6	0.99	5.9
Total adds up	472	1.09	515.8

⁠

Where Grnčari Kruševac shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

See all terms

Every shot this season

472 of 472 shots shown

46.0%

217 of 472 from the floor, 7 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 122 / 194 63% · avg 2.0 ft 84 of the 122 makes assisted league 63% 244pts

MID 29 / 94 31% · avg 14.5 ft 12 of the 29 makes assisted league 38% 58pts

THREE 66 / 184 36% · avg 25.1 ft 61 of the 66 makes assisted league 35% 198pts

217 of 472 from the floor, 500 points, + 124 from the line

The dots cover 7 of 15 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

157 of 217 makes were assisted (72%): 84 + 12 + 61.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 7 games whose streams are stored, of 15 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 15 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Grnčari Kruševac

41% 20% 39%

League

38% 20% 42%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Grnčari Kruševac

32% 10% 42% 16%

League

33% 42% 18%

Grnčari Kruševac lean on post-ups: 10.2 % of its shots against the league's 7.4 %.

How we counted it

Grnčari Kruševac: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	152 drives + 48 post-ups + 196 catch and shoot + 76 pull-ups = 472

⁠

Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

See all terms

Arsen Rašić SG 25 y

Strong61–80

Age: 25
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.4
Contract ends: End of season 2

59/111 shots 122.1 expected 143 scored ▲ +20.9

Duško Mockus PG 35 y

Solid41–60

Age: 35
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: -0.3
Contract ends: End of season 4

27/55 shots 60.1 expected 64 scored ▲ +3.9

Rinaldo Macura SF 27 y

Strong61–80

Age: 27
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

48/98 shots 106.6 expected 110 scored ▲ +3.4

Jonah Magalhães C 25 y

Strong61–80

Age: 25
Potential: Elite (81–99)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 4

26/63 shots 70.4 expected 58 scored ▼ −12.4

A man is listed from 50 shots.