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Grubenlampen Bochum

Founded 1958 in Bochum

Zechenring-Halle, holding 5 000

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Grubenlampen Bochum's wins match its points

+0.8 wins

Grubenlampen Bochum's points say about 5 wins in 17 league games. It has 6. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

6Wins so far

5.2Points say

79.6Scored a game

84.4Allowed a game

−4.8Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 17 league games	1 353
Points allowed	1 434
Allowed ÷ scored	1.0599
To the power of 14	2.2569
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 2.2569)	30.70%
× 17 games played	5.22
Wins the points say	5.2 adds up

Wins so far	6
Difference	+0.8 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Grubenlampen Bochum won 2 and lost 3. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 17. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Weakness

Cold shooting

50.9 %

Grubenlampen Bochum shoot 50.9 % effective. The league shoots 53.5 %. That is 18th of 18.

GLB 50.9 %

League 53.5 %

How we counted it

Grubenlampen Bochum: (482 + ½ × 174) ÷ 1 118	50.9 %
League mean, 18 clubs	53.5 %
Rank, 18 clubs	18th of 18

Weakness

A thin attack

104.6

Grubenlampen Bochum score 104.6 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 109.1. That is 16th of 18.

GLB 104.6

League 109.1

How we counted it

100 × 1 353 points ÷ 1 294 possessions	104.6
League mean, 18 clubs	109.1
Rank, 18 clubs	16th of 18

Weakness

A leaky defence

111.3

Grubenlampen Bochum let in 111.3 per 100 trips against the league's 109.1. Lower is better: 16th of 18.

GLB 111.3

League 109.1

How we counted it

100 × 1 434 allowed ÷ 1 288 possessions	111.3
League mean, 18 clubs	109.1
Rank, 18 clubs	16th of 18

Best shot-maker

Erwin Clemens

#85 · C

40/64shots

86points

+15.0vs expected

How we counted it

40 made of 64, 6 of them threes	40/64
Points: 2 × 40 + 6	86
His shots are worth (expected)	71.0
Above expected	86 − 71.0 = +15.0 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 18th of 18

GLB 50.9 %

League 53.5 %

How we counted it

Grubenlampen Bochum: (482 + ½ × 174) ÷ 1 118	50.9 %
League mean, 18 clubs	53.5 %
Rank, 18 clubs	18th of 18

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 4th of 18

GLB 17.2 %

League 18.3 %

How we counted it

Grubenlampen Bochum: 222 ÷ 1 294 possessions	17.2 %
League mean, 18 clubs	18.3 %
Rank, 18 clubs	4th of 18

Reboundsown misses won back · 15th of 18

GLB 23.0 %

League 26.0 %

How we counted it

Grubenlampen Bochum: 140 ÷ (140 + 470)	23.0 %
League mean, 18 clubs	26.0 %
Rank, 18 clubs	15th of 18

Free throwstries per shot · 15th of 18

GLB 25.0 %

League 27.9 %

How we counted it

Grubenlampen Bochum: 280 tries ÷ 1 118 shots	25.0 %
League mean, 18 clubs	27.9 %
Rank, 18 clubs	15th of 18

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Lucky so far

Your shots have paid off a little

+17.2

Over 7 games Grubenlampen Bochum's shots were worth 449.8 points and they scored 467 from the floor: 2.5 a game better than the league would do from the same shots.

+17.2

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 200 + 67	467
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	449.8
Shot-making	+17.2
A game	+2.46

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 17.

Grubenlampen Bochum
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive46 % of 263 league shots	13	0.92	12.0
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 44 % of 392	3	0.88	2.6
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 248	9	0.79	7.1
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 248	2	0.79	1.6
Mid-range · Catch and shoot45 % of 220 league shots	11	0.90	9.9
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 45 % of 317	3	0.90	2.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 45 % of 317	5	0.90	4.5
Mid-range · Pull-up36 % of 574 league shots	36	0.72	25.8
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 754	6	0.75	4.5
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 754	4	0.75	3.0
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 754	1	0.75	0.7
Rim · Drive60 % of 1 290 league shots	64	1.21	77.4
Rim · Drive · second chance65 % of 200 league shots	9	1.30	11.7
Rim · Drive · fast break66 % of 434 league shots	17	1.32	22.4
Rim · Post-up62 % of 267 league shots	16	1.24	19.9
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 347	1	1.23	1.2
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 347	3	1.23	3.7
Rim · Post-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 347	1	1.23	1.2
Rim · Catch and shoot59 % of 300 league shots	12	1.19	14.2
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 472	1	1.28	1.3
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 472	2	1.28	2.6
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 472	3	1.28	3.8
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 62 % of 2 992	4	1.24	5.0
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 62 % of 2 992	2	1.24	2.5
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 215	16	1.19	19.0
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 215	3	1.19	3.6
Three · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 215	1	1.19	1.2
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 36 % of 3 326	2	1.09	2.2
Three · Catch and shoot38 % of 1 883 league shots	112	1.13	126.3
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance40 % of 272 league shots	9	1.20	10.8
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break35 % of 331 league shots	16	1.06	17.0
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 2 533	1	1.12	1.1
Three · Pull-up32 % of 400 league shots	23	0.95	21.7
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 550	2	0.93	1.9
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 550	4	0.93	3.7
Total adds up	417	1.08	449.8

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Where Grubenlampen Bochum shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

490 of 490 shots shown

47.3%

232 of 490 from the floor, 8 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 102 / 163 63% · avg 2.0 ft 58 of the 102 makes assisted league 62% 204pts

MID 53 / 108 49% · avg 14.6 ft 22 of the 53 makes assisted league 39% 106pts

THREE 77 / 219 35% · avg 25.1 ft 66 of the 77 makes assisted league 35% 231pts

232 of 490 from the floor, 541 points, + 133 from the line

The dots cover 8 of 17 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

146 of 232 makes were assisted (63%): 58 + 22 + 66.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 7 games whose streams are stored, of 17 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 17 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Grubenlampen Bochum

32% 22% 45%

League

37% 21% 41%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Grubenlampen Bochum

30% 8% 42% 20%

League

32% 41% 19%

How we counted it

Grubenlampen Bochum: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	126 drives + 34 post-ups + 175 catch and shoot + 82 pull-ups = 417

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Erwin Clemens C 27 y

Strong61–80

Age: 27
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.1
Contract ends: End of season 4

40/64 shots 71.0 expected 86 scored ▲ +15.0

Peter Lauer SF 24 y

Solid41–60

Age: 24
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

35/79 shots 85.3 expected 89 scored ▲ +3.7

Marco Kalb SG 24 y

Strong61–80

Age: 24
Potential: Elite (81–99)
Form: -0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

31/72 shots 81.9 expected 75 scored ▼ −6.9

A man is listed from 50 shots.