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Haubergsleute Siegen

Founded 1949 in Siegen

Siegberg-Halle, holding 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Haubergsleute Siegen's wins match its points

+0.7 wins

Haubergsleute Siegen's points say about 8 wins in 13 league games. It has 9. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

9Wins so far

8.3Points say

72.7Scored a game

69.8Allowed a game

+2.9Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 13 league games	945
Points allowed	907
Allowed ÷ scored	0.9598
To the power of 14	0.5629
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.5629)	63.98%
× 13 games played	8.32
Wins the points say	8.3 adds up

Wins so far	9
Difference	+0.7 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Haubergsleute Siegen won 2 and lost 1. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 13. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

Strong on the glass

28.6 %

Haubergsleute Siegen win back 28.6 % of their misses. The league wins back 25.9 %. That is 3rd of 14.

HBS 28.6 %

League 25.9 %

How we counted it

Haubergsleute Siegen: 140 ÷ (140 + 350)	28.6 %
League mean, 14 clubs	25.9 %
Rank, 14 clubs	3rd of 14

Strength

Plenty of trips to the line

20.8

Haubergsleute Siegen attempt 20.8 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 19.7, so 3rd of 14.

HBS 20.8 %

League 19.7 %

How we counted it

Haubergsleute Siegen: 179 tries ÷ 860 shots	20.8 %
League mean, 14 clubs	19.7 %
Rank, 14 clubs	3rd of 14

Strength

A solid defence

97.8

Haubergsleute Siegen let in 97.8 per 100 trips against the league's 100.5. Lower is better: 4th of 14.

HBS 97.8

League 100.5

How we counted it

100 × 907 allowed ÷ 927 possessions	97.8
League mean, 14 clubs	100.5
Rank, 14 clubs	4th of 14

Best shot-maker

Ernesto Ibrahim

#30 · SG

62/138shots

149points

+22.1vs expected

How we counted it

62 made of 138, 25 of them threes	62/138
Points: 2 × 62 + 25	149
His shots are worth (expected)	126.9
Above expected	149 − 126.9 = +22.1 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 11th of 14

HBS 47.5 %

League 48.0 %

How we counted it

Haubergsleute Siegen: (352 + ½ × 113) ÷ 860	47.5 %
League mean, 14 clubs	48.0 %
Rank, 14 clubs	11th of 14

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 8th of 14

HBS 16.1 %

League 16.2 %

How we counted it

Haubergsleute Siegen: 149 ÷ 924 possessions	16.1 %
League mean, 14 clubs	16.2 %
Rank, 14 clubs	8th of 14

Reboundsown misses won back · 3rd of 14

HBS 28.6 %

League 25.9 %

How we counted it

Haubergsleute Siegen: 140 ÷ (140 + 350)	28.6 %
League mean, 14 clubs	25.9 %
Rank, 14 clubs	3rd of 14

Free throwstries per shot · 3rd of 14

HBS 20.8 %

League 19.7 %

How we counted it

Haubergsleute Siegen: 179 tries ÷ 860 shots	20.8 %
League mean, 14 clubs	19.7 %
Rank, 14 clubs	3rd of 14

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Lucky so far

Your shots have paid off

+33.8

Over 6 games Haubergsleute Siegen's shots were worth 365.2 points and they scored 399 from the floor: 5.6 a game better than the league would do from the same shots.

+33.8

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 172 + 55	399
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	365.2
Shot-making	+33.8
A game	+5.63

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 13.

Haubergsleute Siegen
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive43 % of 231 league shots	17	0.86	14.6
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 339	7	0.78	5.5
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 339	5	0.78	3.9
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 36 % of 1 283	3	0.73	2.2
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 36 % of 1 283	1	0.73	0.7
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 36 % of 1 283	1	0.73	0.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot35 % of 223 league shots	20	0.70	14.0
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 293	4	0.71	2.8
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 293	1	0.71	0.7
Mid-range · Pull-up34 % of 389 league shots	25	0.67	16.8
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 527	6	0.68	4.1
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 527	3	0.68	2.0
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 527	1	0.68	0.7
Rim · Drive58 % of 876 league shots	67	1.16	77.4
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 1 325	16	1.17	18.8
Rim · Drive · fast break59 % of 264 league shots	16	1.18	18.9
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 756	8	1.18	9.4
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 756	1	1.18	1.2
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 756	1	1.18	1.2
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 756	8	1.18	9.4
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 756	5	1.18	5.9
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 756	2	1.18	2.3
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 756	1	1.18	1.2
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 756	4	1.18	4.7
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 756	1	1.18	1.2
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 756	2	1.18	2.4
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 30 % of 2 364	8	0.89	7.1
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 30 % of 2 364	1	0.89	0.9
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 30 % of 2 364	2	0.89	1.8
Three · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 30 % of 2 364	1	0.89	0.9
Three · Catch and shoot30 % of 1 412 league shots	96	0.91	87.3
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance27 % of 253 league shots	17	0.81	13.7
Three · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 30 % of 1 857	12	0.90	10.8
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 30 % of 1 857	5	0.90	4.5
Three · Pull-up27 % of 249 league shots	13	0.81	10.5
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 28 % of 351	2	0.85	1.7
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 28 % of 351	3	0.85	2.5
Three · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 28 % of 351	1	0.85	0.8
Total adds up	387	0.94	365.2

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Where Haubergsleute Siegen shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

387 of 387 shots shown

44.4%

172 of 387 from the floor, 6 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 82 / 132 62% · avg 2.0 ft 45 of the 82 makes assisted league 60% 164pts

MID 35 / 94 37% · avg 15.2 ft 16 of the 35 makes assisted league 36% 70pts

THREE 55 / 161 34% · avg 25.2 ft 39 of the 55 makes assisted league 31% 165pts

172 of 387 from the floor, 399 points, + 76 from the line

The dots cover 6 of 13 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

100 of 172 makes were assisted (58%): 45 + 16 + 39.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 6 games whose streams are stored, of 13 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 13 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Haubergsleute Siegen

34% 24% 42%

League

33% 24% 44%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Haubergsleute Siegen

36% 44% 16%

League

33% 43% 18%

How we counted it

Haubergsleute Siegen: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	139 drives + 16 post-ups + 171 catch and shoot + 61 pull-ups = 387

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Ernesto Ibrahim SG 28 y

Solid41–60

Age: 28
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.3
Contract ends: End of season 3

62/138 shots 126.9 expected 149 scored ▲ +22.1

Hubert Hildebrandt Injured SF 25 y

Solid41–60

Age: 25
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 4

33/71 shots 67.4 expected 78 scored ▲ +10.6

A man is listed from 50 shots.