Watching Europe and South America 69 leagues
Founded 1952 in Celle
Allerufer-Halle, holding 500
The four factors
The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.
They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.
Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.
Hengste Celle let in 107.2 per 100 trips against the league's 100.0. Lower is better: 14th of 14.
| 100 × 848 allowed ÷ 791 possessions | 107.2 |
|---|---|
| League mean, 14 clubs | 100.0 |
| Rank, 14 clubs | 14th of 14 |
Hengste Celle shoot 49.4 % effective. The league shoots 47.3 %. That is 2nd of 14.
| Hengste Celle: (306 + ½ × 119) ÷ 740 | 49.4 % |
|---|---|
| League mean, 14 clubs | 47.3 % |
| Rank, 14 clubs | 2nd of 14 |
Hengste Celle give it away on 15.6 % of trips against the league's 15.0 %. Fewer is better: 12th of 14.
| Hengste Celle: 124 ÷ 794 possessions | 15.6 % |
|---|---|
| League mean, 14 clubs | 15.0 % |
| Rank, 14 clubs | 12th of 14 |
#47 · SG
| 34 made of 66, 21 of them threes | 34/66 |
|---|---|
| Points: 2 × 34 + 21 | 89 |
| His shots are worth (expected) | 58.0 |
| Above expected | 89 − 58.0 = +31.0 adds up |
| Hengste Celle: (306 + ½ × 119) ÷ 740 | 49.4 % |
|---|---|
| League mean, 14 clubs | 47.3 % |
| Rank, 14 clubs | 2nd of 14 |
| Hengste Celle: 124 ÷ 794 possessions | 15.6 % |
|---|---|
| League mean, 14 clubs | 15.0 % |
| Rank, 14 clubs | 12th of 14 |
| Hengste Celle: 113 ÷ (113 + 311) | 26.7 % |
|---|---|
| League mean, 14 clubs | 25.8 % |
| Rank, 14 clubs | 6th of 14 |
| Hengste Celle: 117 tries ÷ 740 shots | 15.8 % |
|---|---|
| League mean, 14 clubs | 18.4 % |
| Rank, 14 clubs | 11th of 14 |
Shot-making
Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.
Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.
Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.
Over 4 games Hengste Celle's shots were worth 237.2 points and they scored 282 from the floor: 11.2 a game better than the league would do from the same shots.
| Points: 2 × 118 + 46 | 282 |
|---|---|
| Expected points, the squad's shots added up | 237.2 |
| Shot-making | +44.8 |
| A game | +11.19 |
Expected points are measured against league rates through round 11.
| Kind of shot | Shots | Worth | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mid-range · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 220 | 13 | 0.67 | 8.7 |
| Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 220 | 1 | 0.67 | 0.7 |
| Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 220 | 2 | 0.67 | 1.3 |
| Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 220 | 1 | 0.67 | 0.7 |
| Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 929 | 9 | 0.66 | 6.0 |
| Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 929 | 2 | 0.66 | 1.3 |
| Mid-range · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 929 | 7 | 0.66 | 4.6 |
| Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 929 | 3 | 0.66 | 2.0 |
| Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 929 | 3 | 0.66 | 2.0 |
| Mid-range · Pull-up32 % of 320 league shots | 24 | 0.64 | 15.5 |
| Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 419 | 2 | 0.65 | 1.3 |
| Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 419 | 3 | 0.65 | 1.9 |
| Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 419 | 1 | 0.65 | 0.6 |
| Rim · Drive57 % of 575 league shots | 43 | 1.13 | 48.8 |
| Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 57 % of 876 | 11 | 1.14 | 12.5 |
| Rim · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 57 % of 876 | 8 | 1.14 | 9.1 |
| Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 57 % of 876 | 2 | 1.14 | 2.3 |
| Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 57 % of 1 162 | 3 | 1.15 | 3.4 |
| Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 57 % of 1 162 | 5 | 1.15 | 5.7 |
| Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 57 % of 1 162 | 2 | 1.15 | 2.3 |
| Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 57 % of 1 162 | 1 | 1.15 | 1.2 |
| Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 57 % of 1 162 | 1 | 1.15 | 1.1 |
| Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 30 % of 1 604 | 5 | 0.90 | 4.5 |
| Three · Catch and shoot29 % of 947 league shots | 77 | 0.86 | 66.6 |
| Three · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 30 % of 1 258 | 8 | 0.89 | 7.1 |
| Three · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 30 % of 1 258 | 10 | 0.89 | 8.9 |
| Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 30 % of 1 258 | 2 | 0.89 | 1.8 |
| Three · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 30 % of 247 | 12 | 0.90 | 10.8 |
| Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 30 % of 247 | 2 | 0.90 | 1.8 |
| Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 30 % of 247 | 3 | 0.90 | 2.7 |
| Total adds up | 266 | 0.89 | 237.2 |
Shot quality is counted from the 4 games whose streams are stored, of 11 played.
Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 11 games are counted.
| Hengste Celle: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups | 86 drives + 14 post-ups + 118 catch and shoot + 48 pull-ups = 266 |
|---|
Expected points
The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.
It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.
Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.
A man is listed from 50 shots.
