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Hochofen Dortmund

Founded 1958 in Dortmund

Zechenhalle, holding 9 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Hochofen Dortmund's wins match its points

+0.5 wins

Hochofen Dortmund's points say about 10 wins in 17 league games. It has 10. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

10Wins so far

9.5Points say

91.7Scored a game

90.1Allowed a game

+1.6Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 17 league games	1 559
Points allowed	1 532
Allowed ÷ scored	0.9827
To the power of 14	0.7830
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.7830)	56.08%
× 17 games played	9.53
Wins the points say	9.5 adds up

Wins so far	10
Difference	+0.5 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Hochofen Dortmund won 1 and lost 2. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 17. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

Plenty of trips to the line

35.4

Hochofen Dortmund attempt 35.4 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 30.6, so 2nd of 18.

HOD 35.4 %

League 30.6 %

How we counted it

Hochofen Dortmund: 389 tries ÷ 1 099 shots	35.4 %
League mean, 18 clubs	30.6 %
Rank, 18 clubs	2nd of 18

Strength

A strong attack

118.4

Hochofen Dortmund score 118.4 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 114.2. That is 4th of 18.

HOD 118.4

League 114.2

How we counted it

100 × 1 559 points ÷ 1 317 possessions	118.4
League mean, 18 clubs	114.2
Rank, 18 clubs	4th of 18

Strength

Hot shooting

57.2 %

Hochofen Dortmund shoot 57.2 % effective. The league shoots 55.5 %. That is 4th of 18.

HOD 57.2 %

League 55.5 %

How we counted it

Hochofen Dortmund: (540 + ½ × 178) ÷ 1 099	57.2 %
League mean, 18 clubs	55.5 %
Rank, 18 clubs	4th of 18

Best shot-maker

Patrick Baron

#37 · PF

51/102shots

130points

+17.3vs expected

How we counted it

51 made of 102, 28 of them threes	51/102
Points: 2 × 51 + 28	130
His shots are worth (expected)	112.7
Above expected	130 − 112.7 = +17.3 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 4th of 18

HOD 57.2 %

League 55.5 %

How we counted it

Hochofen Dortmund: (540 + ½ × 178) ÷ 1 099	57.2 %
League mean, 18 clubs	55.5 %
Rank, 18 clubs	4th of 18

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 6th of 18

HOD 17.5 %

League 18.3 %

How we counted it

Hochofen Dortmund: 231 ÷ 1 317 possessions	17.5 %
League mean, 18 clubs	18.3 %
Rank, 18 clubs	6th of 18

Reboundsown misses won back · 4th of 18

HOD 28.4 %

League 27.0 %

How we counted it

Hochofen Dortmund: 155 ÷ (155 + 391)	28.4 %
League mean, 18 clubs	27.0 %
Rank, 18 clubs	4th of 18

Free throwstries per shot · 2nd of 18

HOD 35.4 %

League 30.6 %

How we counted it

Hochofen Dortmund: 389 tries ÷ 1 099 shots	35.4 %
League mean, 18 clubs	30.6 %
Rank, 18 clubs	2nd of 18

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Lucky so far

Your shots have paid off a little

+16.6

Over 8 games Hochofen Dortmund's shots were worth 537.4 points and they scored 554 from the floor: 2.1 a game better than the league would do from the same shots.

+16.6

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 238 + 78	554
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	537.4
Shot-making	+16.6
A game	+2.08

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 17.

Hochofen Dortmund
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive42 % of 244 league shots	11	0.84	9.2
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 395	1	0.86	0.9
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 395	6	0.86	5.2
Mid-range · Post-up43 % of 231 league shots	10	0.86	8.6
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 45 % of 281	1	0.90	0.9
Mid-range · Catch and shoot43 % of 265 league shots	17	0.87	14.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 362	2	0.86	1.7
Mid-range · Pull-up46 % of 558 league shots	36	0.91	32.9
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 45 % of 761	6	0.90	5.4
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 45 % of 761	8	0.90	7.2
Rim · Drive59 % of 1 373 league shots	69	1.18	81.5
Rim · Drive · second chance64 % of 203 league shots	18	1.27	22.9
Rim · Drive · fast break66 % of 501 league shots	16	1.31	21.0
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 2 150	7	1.23	8.6
Rim · Post-up60 % of 340 league shots	19	1.20	22.8
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 436	4	1.24	4.9
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 436	1	1.24	1.2
Rim · Catch and shoot63 % of 390 league shots	14	1.26	17.7
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 605	7	1.27	8.9
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 241	7	1.24	8.7
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 241	3	1.24	3.7
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 241	7	1.24	8.7
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 282	30	1.16	34.8
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 282	4	1.16	4.6
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 282	1	1.16	1.2
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 3 846	3	1.06	3.2
Three · Catch and shoot35 % of 2 145 league shots	111	1.04	115.0
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance33 % of 336 league shots	15	0.99	14.9
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break37 % of 382 league shots	18	1.12	20.2
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 2 922	3	1.04	3.1
Three · Pull-up38 % of 451 league shots	29	1.15	33.4
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 611	5	1.08	5.4
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 611	4	1.08	4.3
Total adds up	493	1.09	537.4

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Where Hochofen Dortmund shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

493 of 493 shots shown

48.3%

238 of 493 from the floor, 8 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 118 / 172 69% · avg 2.1 ft 68 of the 118 makes assisted league 63% 236pts

MID 42 / 98 43% · avg 14.7 ft 23 of the 42 makes assisted league 44% 84pts

THREE 78 / 223 35% · avg 25.3 ft 72 of the 78 makes assisted league 36% 234pts

238 of 493 from the floor, 554 points, + 156 from the line

The dots cover 8 of 17 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

163 of 238 makes were assisted (68%): 68 + 23 + 72.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 8 games whose streams are stored, of 17 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 17 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Hochofen Dortmund

35% 20% 45%

League

38% 20% 42%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Hochofen Dortmund

33% 38% 21%

League

31% 8% 43% 18%

How we counted it

Hochofen Dortmund: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	163 drives + 38 post-ups + 187 catch and shoot + 105 pull-ups = 493

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Patrick Baron PF 34 y

Strong61–80

Age: 34
Potential: Elite (81–99)
Form: 0.3
Contract ends: End of season 4

51/102 shots 112.7 expected 130 scored ▲ +17.3

Viktor Cebeci PG 25 y

Strong61–80

Age: 25
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

33/55 shots 61.5 expected 76 scored ▲ +14.5

Audrius Misiūnas SF 24 y

Solid41–60

Age: 24
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.2
Contract ends: End of season 2

26/54 shots 57.6 expected 61 scored ▲ +3.4

Clark Bledsoe SG 23 y

Strong61–80

Age: 23
Potential: Elite (81–99)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

52/111 shots 121.1 expected 118 scored ▼ −3.1

Norman Sarumi SF 23 y

Solid41–60

Age: 23
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.1
Contract ends: End of season 2

21/51 shots 54.2 expected 47 scored ▼ −7.2

A man is listed from 50 shots.