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Hochzeiter Landshut

Founded 1961 in Landshut

Isarbogen-Halle, holding 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Ahead of its points

Hochzeiter Landshut's wins run ahead of its points

+1.2 wins

Hochzeiter Landshut's points say about 4 wins in 13 league games. It has 5. The table has been a little kind.

5Wins so far

3.8Points say

66.8Scored a game

71.2Allowed a game

−4.4Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 13 league games	869
Points allowed	926
Allowed ÷ scored	1.0656
To the power of 14	2.4338
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 2.4338)	29.12%
× 13 games played	3.79
Wins the points say	3.8 adds up

Wins so far	5
Difference	+1.2 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Hochzeiter Landshut won 2 and lost 2. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 13. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Weakness

A thin attack

93.0

Hochzeiter Landshut score 93.0 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 98.9. That is 14th of 14.

HZL 93.0

League 98.9

How we counted it

100 × 869 points ÷ 934 possessions	93.0
League mean, 14 clubs	98.9
Rank, 14 clubs	14th of 14

Strength

Plenty of trips to the line

22.6

Hochzeiter Landshut attempt 22.6 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 18.9, so 1st of 14.

HZL 22.6 %

League 18.9 %

How we counted it

Hochzeiter Landshut: 187 tries ÷ 827 shots	22.6 %
League mean, 14 clubs	18.9 %
Rank, 14 clubs	1st of 14

Weakness

Cold shooting

45.3 %

Hochzeiter Landshut shoot 45.3 % effective. The league shoots 47.3 %. That is 13th of 14.

HZL 45.3 %

League 47.3 %

How we counted it

Hochzeiter Landshut: (323 + ½ × 103) ÷ 827	45.3 %
League mean, 14 clubs	47.3 %
Rank, 14 clubs	13th of 14

Best shot-maker

Maurílio Sabino

#98 · SG

43/99shots

107points

+17.0vs expected

How we counted it

43 made of 99, 21 of them threes	43/99
Points: 2 × 43 + 21	107
His shots are worth (expected)	90.0
Above expected	107 − 90.0 = +17.0 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 13th of 14

HZL 45.3 %

League 47.3 %

How we counted it

Hochzeiter Landshut: (323 + ½ × 103) ÷ 827	45.3 %
League mean, 14 clubs	47.3 %
Rank, 14 clubs	13th of 14

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 11th of 14

HZL 16.7 %

League 15.6 %

How we counted it

Hochzeiter Landshut: 156 ÷ 934 possessions	16.7 %
League mean, 14 clubs	15.6 %
Rank, 14 clubs	11th of 14

Reboundsown misses won back · 10th of 14

HZL 23.2 %

League 25.4 %

How we counted it

Hochzeiter Landshut: 114 ÷ (114 + 377)	23.2 %
League mean, 14 clubs	25.4 %
Rank, 14 clubs	10th of 14

Free throwstries per shot · 1st of 14

HZL 22.6 %

League 18.9 %

How we counted it

Hochzeiter Landshut: 187 tries ÷ 827 shots	22.6 %
League mean, 14 clubs	18.9 %
Rank, 14 clubs	1st of 14

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Unlucky so far

Your shots have not paid off

−15.7

Over 6 games Hochzeiter Landshut's shots were worth 340.7 points and they scored 325 from the floor: 2.6 a game worse than the league would do from the same shots.

−15.7

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 140 + 45	325
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	340.7
Shot-making	−15.7
A game	−2.62

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 13.

Hochzeiter Landshut
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive36 % of 245 league shots	14	0.72	10.1
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 349	1	0.78	0.8
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 349	5	0.78	3.9
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 36 % of 1 297	6	0.73	4.4
Mid-range · Catch and shoot36 % of 229 league shots	24	0.72	17.4
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 298	4	0.79	3.1
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 298	5	0.79	3.9
Mid-range · Pull-up33 % of 421 league shots	19	0.67	12.7
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 540	4	0.67	2.7
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 540	6	0.67	4.0
Rim · Drive60 % of 838 league shots	47	1.20	56.2
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 1 258	6	1.22	7.3
Rim · Drive · fast break64 % of 248 league shots	12	1.28	15.4
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 1 258	2	1.22	2.4
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 659	7	1.19	8.3
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 659	2	1.19	2.4
Rim · Post-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 659	1	1.19	1.2
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 659	12	1.19	14.2
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 659	6	1.19	7.1
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 659	4	1.19	4.8
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 659	1	1.19	1.2
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 30 % of 2 470	6	0.89	5.3
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 30 % of 2 470	1	0.89	0.9
Three · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 30 % of 2 470	1	0.89	0.9
Three · Catch and shoot30 % of 1 504 league shots	113	0.90	101.2
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance26 % of 236 league shots	17	0.79	13.4
Three · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 30 % of 1 966	14	0.89	12.5
Three · Pull-up28 % of 269 league shots	19	0.83	15.7
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 27 % of 363	3	0.81	2.4
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 27 % of 363	5	0.81	4.1
Three · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 27 % of 363	1	0.81	0.8
Total adds up	368	0.93	340.7

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Where Hochzeiter Landshut shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

368 of 368 shots shown

38.0%

140 of 368 from the floor, 6 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 60 / 100 60% · avg 2.0 ft 31 of the 60 makes assisted league 60% 120pts

MID 35 / 88 40% · avg 14.8 ft 16 of the 35 makes assisted league 35% 70pts

THREE 45 / 180 25% · avg 25.1 ft 39 of the 45 makes assisted league 30% 135pts

140 of 368 from the floor, 325 points, + 63 from the line

The dots cover 6 of 13 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

86 of 140 makes were assisted (61%): 31 + 16 + 39.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 6 games whose streams are stored, of 13 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 13 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Hochzeiter Landshut

27% 24% 49%

League

31% 24% 46%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Hochzeiter Landshut

26% 53% 17%

League

32% 45% 18%

How we counted it

Hochzeiter Landshut: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	94 drives + 17 post-ups + 195 catch and shoot + 62 pull-ups = 368

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Maurílio Sabino SG 26 y

Solid41–60

Age: 26
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.5
Contract ends: End of season 3

43/99 shots 90.0 expected 107 scored ▲ +17.0

Gustav Kern PG 25 y

Solid41–60

Age: 25
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: -0.2
Contract ends: End of season 4

20/67 shots 60.7 expected 44 scored ▼ −16.7

A man is listed from 50 shots.