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Horlogers Besançon

Founded 1941 in Besançon

Salle du Doubs, holding 5 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Horlogers Besançon's wins match its points

−0.1 wins

Horlogers Besançon's points say about 13 wins in 19 league games. It has 13. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

13Wins so far

13.1Points say

82.0Scored a game

77.5Allowed a game

+4.5Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 19 league games	1 558
Points allowed	1 473
Allowed ÷ scored	0.9454
To the power of 14	0.4559
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.4559)	68.68%
× 19 games played	13.05
Wins the points say	13.1 adds up

Wins so far	13
Difference	−0.1 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Horlogers Besançon won 4 and lost 1. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 19. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

A solid defence

103.3

Horlogers Besançon let in 103.3 per 100 trips against the league's 109.4. Lower is better: 1st of 20.

HOB 103.3

League 109.4

How we counted it

100 × 1 473 allowed ÷ 1 426 possessions	103.3
League mean, 20 clubs	109.4
Rank, 20 clubs	1st of 20

Weakness

Cold shooting

51.3 %

Horlogers Besançon shoot 51.3 % effective. The league shoots 52.9 %. That is 18th of 20.

HOB 51.3 %

League 52.9 %

How we counted it

Horlogers Besançon: (571 + ½ × 162) ÷ 1 271	51.3 %
League mean, 20 clubs	52.9 %
Rank, 20 clubs	18th of 20

Strength

Strong on the glass

27.9 %

Horlogers Besançon win back 27.9 % of their misses. The league wins back 26.3 %. That is 7th of 20.

HOB 27.9 %

League 26.3 %

How we counted it

Horlogers Besançon: 187 ÷ (187 + 483)	27.9 %
League mean, 20 clubs	26.3 %
Rank, 20 clubs	7th of 20

Best shot-maker

Mamadou Obiora

#79 · SG

38/76shots

90points

+12.3vs expected

How we counted it

38 made of 76, 14 of them threes	38/76
Points: 2 × 38 + 14	90
His shots are worth (expected)	77.7
Above expected	90 − 77.7 = +12.3 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 18th of 20

HOB 51.3 %

League 52.9 %

How we counted it

Horlogers Besançon: (571 + ½ × 162) ÷ 1 271	51.3 %
League mean, 20 clubs	52.9 %
Rank, 20 clubs	18th of 20

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 8th of 20

HOB 16.5 %

League 17.3 %

How we counted it

Horlogers Besançon: 236 ÷ 1 434 possessions	16.5 %
League mean, 20 clubs	17.3 %
Rank, 20 clubs	8th of 20

Reboundsown misses won back · 7th of 20

HOB 27.9 %

League 26.3 %

How we counted it

Horlogers Besançon: 187 ÷ (187 + 483)	27.9 %
League mean, 20 clubs	26.3 %
Rank, 20 clubs	7th of 20

Free throwstries per shot · 8th of 20

HOB 27.2 %

League 26.0 %

How we counted it

Horlogers Besançon: 346 tries ÷ 1 271 shots	27.2 %
League mean, 20 clubs	26.0 %
Rank, 20 clubs	8th of 20

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Unlucky so far

Your shots have not paid off

−18.7

Over 9 games Horlogers Besançon's shots were worth 618.7 points and they scored 600 from the floor: 2.1 a game worse than the league would do from the same shots.

−18.7

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 269 + 62	600
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	618.7
Shot-making	−18.7
A game	−2.08

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 19.

Horlogers Besançon
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive41 % of 366 league shots	21	0.81	17.1
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 541	8	0.82	6.6
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 541	10	0.82	8.2
Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 541	1	0.82	0.8
Mid-range · Post-up45 % of 284 league shots	20	0.90	18.0
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 356	6	0.86	5.2
Mid-range · Catch and shoot43 % of 423 league shots	30	0.86	25.8
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 552	2	0.86	1.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 552	5	0.86	4.3
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 552	1	0.86	0.9
Mid-range · Pull-up40 % of 778 league shots	44	0.80	35.1
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 1 063	6	0.81	4.8
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 1 063	7	0.81	5.6
Rim · Drive61 % of 1 750 league shots	89	1.22	108.4
Rim · Drive · second chance57 % of 299 league shots	18	1.14	20.5
Rim · Drive · fast break65 % of 624 league shots	33	1.29	42.6
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 2 775	6	1.23	7.4
Rim · Post-up63 % of 427 league shots	21	1.26	26.6
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 532	1	1.28	1.3
Rim · Catch and shoot60 % of 361 league shots	11	1.21	13.3
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 573	5	1.26	6.3
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 573	3	1.26	3.8
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 259	14	1.17	16.4
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 259	1	1.17	1.2
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 259	6	1.17	7.0
Three · Drive38 % of 245 league shots	7	1.14	8.0
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 366	1	1.08	1.1
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 366	5	1.08	5.4
Three · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 366	2	1.08	2.2
Three · Catch and shoot34 % of 2 735 league shots	123	1.03	126.5
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance34 % of 423 league shots	21	1.03	21.6
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break35 % of 460 league shots	25	1.04	25.9
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 3 675	1	1.03	1.0
Three · Pull-up35 % of 607 league shots	23	1.04	23.9
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 842	7	1.02	7.1
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 842	7	1.02	7.1
Total adds up	591	1.05	618.7

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Where Horlogers Besançon shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

591 of 591 shots shown

45.5%

269 of 591 from the floor, 9 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 144 / 208 69% · avg 2.0 ft 84 of the 144 makes assisted league 62% 288pts

MID 63 / 161 39% · avg 14.2 ft 32 of the 63 makes assisted league 40% 126pts

THREE 62 / 222 28% · avg 25.0 ft 55 of the 62 makes assisted league 35% 186pts

269 of 591 from the floor, 600 points, + 126 from the line

The dots cover 9 of 19 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

171 of 269 makes were assisted (64%): 84 + 32 + 55.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 9 games whose streams are stored, of 19 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 19 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Horlogers Besançon

35% 27% 38%

League

36% 22% 43%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Horlogers Besançon

34% 8% 38% 19%

League

32% 41% 19%

How we counted it

Horlogers Besançon: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	201 drives + 48 post-ups + 227 catch and shoot + 115 pull-ups = 591

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Mamadou Obiora SG 23 y

Solid41–60

Age: 23
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

38/76 shots 77.7 expected 90 scored ▲ +12.3

Gerald Idahosa SG 21 y

Strong61–80

Age: 21
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

64/147 shots 150.7 expected 148 scored ▼ −2.7

Tristan Kırbaş PG 32 y

Strong61–80

Age: 32
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 4

38/92 shots 96.0 expected 83 scored ▼ −13.0

A man is listed from 50 shots.