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Hortillons Amiens

Founded 1953 in Amiens

Salle de la Somme, holding 6 000

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Ahead of its points

Hortillons Amiens's wins run ahead of its points

+1.1 wins

Hortillons Amiens's points say about 9 wins in 19 league games. It has 10. The table has been a little kind.

10Wins so far

8.9Points say

81.2Scored a game

81.8Allowed a game

−0.7Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 19 league games	1 542
Points allowed	1 555
Allowed ÷ scored	1.0084
To the power of 14	1.1247
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 1.1247)	47.07%
× 19 games played	8.94
Wins the points say	8.9 adds up

Wins so far	10
Difference	+1.1 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Hortillons Amiens won 1 and lost 1. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 19. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

Strong on the glass

29.8 %

Hortillons Amiens win back 29.8 % of their misses. The league wins back 26.3 %. That is 2nd of 20.

HOA 29.8 %

League 26.3 %

How we counted it

Hortillons Amiens: 200 ÷ (200 + 471)	29.8 %
League mean, 20 clubs	26.3 %
Rank, 20 clubs	2nd of 20

Weakness

Few trips to the line

23.3

Hortillons Amiens attempt 23.3 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 26.0, so 17th of 20.

HOA 23.3 %

League 26.0 %

How we counted it

Hortillons Amiens: 295 tries ÷ 1 266 shots	23.3 %
League mean, 20 clubs	26.0 %
Rank, 20 clubs	17th of 20

Weakness

Careless with the ball

18.1 %

Hortillons Amiens give it away on 18.1 % of trips against the league's 17.3 %. Fewer is better: 16th of 20.

HOA 18.1 %

League 17.3 %

How we counted it

Hortillons Amiens: 257 ÷ 1 422 possessions	18.1 %
League mean, 20 clubs	17.3 %
Rank, 20 clubs	16th of 20

Best shot-maker

Manuel Dupuis

#32 · SG

78/161shots

186points

+18.9vs expected

How we counted it

78 made of 161, 30 of them threes	78/161
Points: 2 × 78 + 30	186
His shots are worth (expected)	167.1
Above expected	186 − 167.1 = +18.9 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 12th of 20

HOA 51.9 %

League 52.9 %

How we counted it

Hortillons Amiens: (560 + ½ × 194) ÷ 1 266	51.9 %
League mean, 20 clubs	52.9 %
Rank, 20 clubs	12th of 20

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 16th of 20

HOA 18.1 %

League 17.3 %

How we counted it

Hortillons Amiens: 257 ÷ 1 422 possessions	18.1 %
League mean, 20 clubs	17.3 %
Rank, 20 clubs	16th of 20

Reboundsown misses won back · 2nd of 20

HOA 29.8 %

League 26.3 %

How we counted it

Hortillons Amiens: 200 ÷ (200 + 471)	29.8 %
League mean, 20 clubs	26.3 %
Rank, 20 clubs	2nd of 20

Free throwstries per shot · 17th of 20

HOA 23.3 %

League 26.0 %

How we counted it

Hortillons Amiens: 295 tries ÷ 1 266 shots	23.3 %
League mean, 20 clubs	26.0 %
Rank, 20 clubs	17th of 20

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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As expected

Right on what the shots are worth

−1.8

Over 9 games Hortillons Amiens's shots were worth 611.8 points and they scored 610 from the floor: 0.2 a game in line with what than the league would do from the same shots.

−1.8

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 263 + 84	610
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	611.8
Shot-making	−1.8
A game	−0.20

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 19.

Hortillons Amiens
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive41 % of 366 league shots	21	0.81	17.1
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 541	5	0.82	4.1
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 541	9	0.82	7.4
Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 541	1	0.82	0.8
Mid-range · Post-up45 % of 284 league shots	8	0.90	7.2
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 356	4	0.86	3.4
Mid-range · Catch and shoot43 % of 423 league shots	26	0.86	22.4
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 552	3	0.86	2.6
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 552	4	0.86	3.5
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 552	2	0.86	1.7
Mid-range · Pull-up40 % of 778 league shots	47	0.80	37.5
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 1 063	7	0.81	5.7
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 1 063	6	0.81	4.8
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 1 063	2	0.81	1.6
Rim · Drive61 % of 1 750 league shots	81	1.22	98.7
Rim · Drive · second chance57 % of 299 league shots	11	1.14	12.5
Rim · Drive · fast break65 % of 624 league shots	30	1.29	38.8
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 2 775	4	1.23	4.9
Rim · Post-up63 % of 427 league shots	19	1.26	24.0
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 532	4	1.28	5.1
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 532	2	1.28	2.6
Rim · Catch and shoot60 % of 361 league shots	14	1.21	16.9
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 573	1	1.26	1.3
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 573	6	1.26	7.5
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 259	6	1.17	7.0
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 259	4	1.17	4.7
Three · Drive38 % of 245 league shots	9	1.14	10.2
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 366	2	1.08	2.2
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 366	2	1.08	2.2
Three · Catch and shoot34 % of 2 735 league shots	149	1.03	153.3
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance34 % of 423 league shots	27	1.03	27.8
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break35 % of 460 league shots	22	1.04	22.8
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 3 675	5	1.03	5.1
Three · Pull-up35 % of 607 league shots	31	1.04	32.2
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 842	6	1.02	6.1
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 842	6	1.02	6.1
Total adds up	586	1.04	611.8

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Where Hortillons Amiens shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

586 of 586 shots shown

44.9%

263 of 586 from the floor, 9 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 123 / 182 68% · avg 2.0 ft 66 of the 123 makes assisted league 62% 246pts

MID 56 / 145 39% · avg 15.3 ft 28 of the 56 makes assisted league 40% 112pts

THREE 84 / 259 32% · avg 25.2 ft 79 of the 84 makes assisted league 35% 252pts

263 of 586 from the floor, 610 points, + 119 from the line

The dots cover 9 of 19 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

173 of 263 makes were assisted (66%): 66 + 28 + 79.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 9 games whose streams are stored, of 19 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 19 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Hortillons Amiens

31% 25% 44%

League

36% 22% 43%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Hortillons Amiens

30% 44% 20%

League

32% 41% 19%

How we counted it

Hortillons Amiens: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	175 drives + 37 post-ups + 259 catch and shoot + 115 pull-ups = 586

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Manuel Dupuis SG 30 y

Strong61–80

Age: 30
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 3

78/161 shots 167.1 expected 186 scored ▲ +18.9

Blaise Lopes PG 24 y

Strong61–80

Age: 24
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

50/93 shots 98.6 expected 117 scored ▲ +18.4

Éric Bréhier SF 32 y

Solid41–60

Age: 32
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.4
Contract ends: End of season 4

41/93 shots 96.0 expected 98 scored ▲ +2.0

Jules Dorn PF 31 y

Strong61–80

Age: 31
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 4

26/66 shots 70.2 expected 59 scored ▼ −11.2

A man is listed from 50 shots.