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Imprimeurs Poitiers

Founded 1981 in Poitiers

Salle du Clain, holding 4 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Imprimeurs Poitiers's wins match its points

−0.9 wins

Imprimeurs Poitiers's points say about 5 wins in 19 league games. It has 4. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

4Wins so far

4.9Points say

75.9Scored a game

81.9Allowed a game

−6.0Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 19 league games	1 442
Points allowed	1 556
Allowed ÷ scored	1.0791
To the power of 14	2.9015
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 2.9015)	25.63%
× 19 games played	4.87
Wins the points say	4.9 adds up

Wins so far	4
Difference	−0.9 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Imprimeurs Poitiers won 0 and lost 2. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 19. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Weakness

A thin attack

100.7

Imprimeurs Poitiers score 100.7 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 109.4. That is 20th of 20.

IMP 100.7

League 109.4

How we counted it

100 × 1 442 points ÷ 1 432 possessions	100.7
League mean, 20 clubs	109.4
Rank, 20 clubs	20th of 20

Weakness

Careless with the ball

20.3 %

Imprimeurs Poitiers give it away on 20.3 % of trips against the league's 17.3 %. Fewer is better: 20th of 20.

IMP 20.3 %

League 17.3 %

How we counted it

Imprimeurs Poitiers: 291 ÷ 1 432 possessions	20.3 %
League mean, 20 clubs	17.3 %
Rank, 20 clubs	20th of 20

Weakness

Cold shooting

50.5 %

Imprimeurs Poitiers shoot 50.5 % effective. The league shoots 52.9 %. That is 19th of 20.

IMP 50.5 %

League 52.9 %

How we counted it

Imprimeurs Poitiers: (531 + ½ × 170) ÷ 1 219	50.5 %
League mean, 20 clubs	52.9 %
Rank, 20 clubs	19th of 20

Best shot-maker

Gaber Brodnik

#21 · SG

44/89shots

109points

+14.0vs expected

How we counted it

44 made of 89, 21 of them threes	44/89
Points: 2 × 44 + 21	109
His shots are worth (expected)	95.0
Above expected	109 − 95.0 = +14.0 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 19th of 20

IMP 50.5 %

League 52.9 %

How we counted it

Imprimeurs Poitiers: (531 + ½ × 170) ÷ 1 219	50.5 %
League mean, 20 clubs	52.9 %
Rank, 20 clubs	19th of 20

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 20th of 20

IMP 20.3 %

League 17.3 %

How we counted it

Imprimeurs Poitiers: 291 ÷ 1 432 possessions	20.3 %
League mean, 20 clubs	17.3 %
Rank, 20 clubs	20th of 20

Reboundsown misses won back · 10th of 20

IMP 27.3 %

League 26.3 %

How we counted it

Imprimeurs Poitiers: 181 ÷ (181 + 481)	27.3 %
League mean, 20 clubs	26.3 %
Rank, 20 clubs	10th of 20

Free throwstries per shot · 15th of 20

IMP 23.8 %

League 26.0 %

How we counted it

Imprimeurs Poitiers: 290 tries ÷ 1 219 shots	23.8 %
League mean, 20 clubs	26.0 %
Rank, 20 clubs	15th of 20

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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As expected

Right on what the shots are worth

−15.1

Over 9 games Imprimeurs Poitiers's shots were worth 585.1 points and they scored 570 from the floor: 1.7 a game in line with what than the league would do from the same shots.

−15.1

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 246 + 78	570
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	585.1
Shot-making	−15.1
A game	−1.68

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 19.

Imprimeurs Poitiers
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive41 % of 366 league shots	15	0.81	12.2
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 541	4	0.82	3.3
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 541	7	0.82	5.7
Mid-range · Post-up45 % of 284 league shots	16	0.90	14.4
Mid-range · Catch and shoot43 % of 423 league shots	26	0.86	22.4
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 552	3	0.86	2.6
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 552	4	0.86	3.4
Mid-range · Pull-up40 % of 778 league shots	40	0.80	31.9
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 1 063	7	0.81	5.7
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 1 063	5	0.81	4.0
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 1 063	1	0.81	0.8
Rim · Drive61 % of 1 750 league shots	74	1.22	90.2
Rim · Drive · second chance57 % of 299 league shots	18	1.14	20.5
Rim · Drive · fast break65 % of 624 league shots	17	1.29	22.0
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 2 775	4	1.23	4.9
Rim · Post-up63 % of 427 league shots	25	1.26	31.6
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 532	5	1.28	6.4
Rim · Post-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 532	1	1.28	1.3
Rim · Catch and shoot60 % of 361 league shots	18	1.21	21.7
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 573	3	1.26	3.8
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 573	7	1.26	8.8
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 259	6	1.17	7.0
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 259	2	1.17	2.3
Three · Drive38 % of 245 league shots	12	1.14	13.7
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 366	2	1.08	2.2
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 366	3	1.08	3.2
Three · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 366	1	1.08	1.1
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 34 % of 4 916	3	1.03	3.1
Three · Catch and shoot34 % of 2 735 league shots	141	1.03	145.1
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance34 % of 423 league shots	29	1.03	29.8
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break35 % of 460 league shots	19	1.04	19.7
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 3 675	1	1.03	1.0
Three · Pull-up35 % of 607 league shots	29	1.04	30.1
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 842	5	1.02	5.1
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 842	3	1.02	3.1
Three · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 842	1	1.02	1.0
Total adds up	557	1.05	585.1

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Where Imprimeurs Poitiers shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

557 of 557 shots shown

44.2%

246 of 557 from the floor, 9 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 108 / 180 60% · avg 2.0 ft 69 of the 108 makes assisted league 62% 216pts

MID 60 / 128 47% · avg 14.5 ft 29 of the 60 makes assisted league 40% 120pts

THREE 78 / 249 31% · avg 25.4 ft 66 of the 78 makes assisted league 35% 234pts

246 of 557 from the floor, 570 points, + 121 from the line

The dots cover 9 of 19 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

164 of 246 makes were assisted (67%): 69 + 29 + 66.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 9 games whose streams are stored, of 19 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 19 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Imprimeurs Poitiers

32% 23% 45%

League

36% 22% 43%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Imprimeurs Poitiers

28% 9% 45% 18%

League

32% 41% 19%

How we counted it

Imprimeurs Poitiers: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	157 drives + 50 post-ups + 251 catch and shoot + 99 pull-ups = 557

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Gaber Brodnik SG 19 y

Solid41–60

Age: 19
Potential: Elite (81–99)
Form: -0.1
Contract ends: End of season 4

44/89 shots 95.0 expected 109 scored ▲ +14.0

Ismael Ramírez PG 21 y

Solid41–60

Age: 21
Potential: Elite (81–99)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

32/59 shots 63.1 expected 76 scored ▲ +12.9

Sidney Okoduwa Injured PF 21 y

Solid41–60

Age: 21
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

23/54 shots 56.2 expected 50 scored ▼ −6.2

Alix Bamgbose PF 26 y

Solid41–60

Age: 26
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: -0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

32/79 shots 81.2 expected 71 scored ▼ −10.2

Grégoire Erdem SF 20 y

Solid41–60

Age: 20
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

38/95 shots 101.0 expected 86 scored ▼ −15.0

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Coldest shooters

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Flavien Marchal SG 25 y

Solid41–60

Age: 25
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

43/115 shots 119.3 expected 102 scored ▼ −17.3

A man is listed from 50 shots.