Manage a club, start free

Innflößer Rosenheim

Founded 1950 in Rosenheim

Mangfall-Halle, holding 500

⁠

Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

See all terms

Behind its points

Innflößer Rosenheim's wins trail its points

−1.2 wins

Innflößer Rosenheim's points say about 8 wins in 13 league games. It has 7. The table has been a little unkind.

7Wins so far

8.2Points say

76.2Scored a game

73.4Allowed a game

+2.8Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 13 league games	991
Points allowed	954
Allowed ÷ scored	0.9627
To the power of 14	0.5870
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.5870)	63.01%
× 13 games played	8.19
Wins the points say	8.2 adds up

Wins so far	7
Difference	−1.2 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Innflößer Rosenheim won 0 and lost 2. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 13. It is final when the season closes.

⁠

The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

See all terms

Strength

A strong attack

104.9

Innflößer Rosenheim score 104.9 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 98.9. That is 1st of 14.

IFR 104.9

League 98.9

How we counted it

100 × 991 points ÷ 945 possessions	104.9
League mean, 14 clubs	98.9
Rank, 14 clubs	1st of 14

Strength

Hot shooting

50.5 %

Innflößer Rosenheim shoot 50.5 % effective. The league shoots 47.3 %. That is 1st of 14.

IFR 50.5 %

League 47.3 %

How we counted it

Innflößer Rosenheim: (363 + ½ × 131) ÷ 848	50.5 %
League mean, 14 clubs	47.3 %
Rank, 14 clubs	1st of 14

Strength

Plenty of trips to the line

21.0

Innflößer Rosenheim attempt 21.0 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 18.9, so 3rd of 14.

IFR 21.0 %

League 18.9 %

How we counted it

Innflößer Rosenheim: 178 tries ÷ 848 shots	21.0 %
League mean, 14 clubs	18.9 %
Rank, 14 clubs	3rd of 14

Best shot-maker

Niyazi Clayton

#50 · SG

47/95shots

125points

+41.8vs expected

How we counted it

47 made of 95, 31 of them threes	47/95
Points: 2 × 47 + 31	125
His shots are worth (expected)	83.2
Above expected	125 − 83.2 = +41.8 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 1st of 14

IFR 50.5 %

League 47.3 %

How we counted it

Innflößer Rosenheim: (363 + ½ × 131) ÷ 848	50.5 %
League mean, 14 clubs	47.3 %
Rank, 14 clubs	1st of 14

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 10th of 14

IFR 16.3 %

League 15.6 %

How we counted it

Innflößer Rosenheim: 154 ÷ 945 possessions	16.3 %
League mean, 14 clubs	15.6 %
Rank, 14 clubs	10th of 14

Reboundsown misses won back · 8th of 14

IFR 25.6 %

League 25.4 %

How we counted it

Innflößer Rosenheim: 118 ÷ (118 + 343)	25.6 %
League mean, 14 clubs	25.4 %
Rank, 14 clubs	8th of 14

Free throwstries per shot · 3rd of 14

IFR 21.0 %

League 18.9 %

How we counted it

Innflößer Rosenheim: 178 tries ÷ 848 shots	21.0 %
League mean, 14 clubs	18.9 %
Rank, 14 clubs	3rd of 14

⁠

Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

See all terms

Lucky so far

Your shots have paid off

+36.8

Over 6 games Innflößer Rosenheim's shots were worth 365.2 points and they scored 402 from the floor: 6.1 a game better than the league would do from the same shots.

+36.8

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 168 + 66	402
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	365.2
Shot-making	+36.8
A game	+6.13

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 13.

Innflößer Rosenheim
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive36 % of 245 league shots	11	0.72	7.9
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 349	2	0.78	1.6
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 349	3	0.78	2.3
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 36 % of 1 297	2	0.73	1.5
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 36 % of 1 297	2	0.73	1.5
Mid-range · Catch and shoot36 % of 229 league shots	12	0.72	8.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 298	2	0.79	1.6
Mid-range · Pull-up33 % of 421 league shots	32	0.67	21.4
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 540	2	0.67	1.3
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 540	2	0.67	1.3
Rim · Drive60 % of 838 league shots	77	1.20	92.1
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 1 258	11	1.22	13.4
Rim · Drive · fast break64 % of 248 league shots	17	1.28	21.8
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 1 258	2	1.22	2.4
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 659	8	1.19	9.5
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 659	1	1.19	1.2
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 659	7	1.19	8.3
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 659	1	1.19	1.2
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 659	4	1.19	4.7
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 659	1	1.19	1.2
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 659	2	1.19	2.4
Rim · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 659	1	1.19	1.2
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 30 % of 2 470	8	0.89	7.1
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 30 % of 2 470	3	0.89	2.7
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 30 % of 2 470	1	0.89	0.9
Three · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 30 % of 2 470	1	0.89	0.9
Three · Catch and shoot30 % of 1 504 league shots	110	0.90	98.5
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance26 % of 236 league shots	17	0.79	13.4
Three · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 30 % of 1 966	16	0.89	14.2
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 30 % of 1 966	2	0.89	1.8
Three · Pull-up28 % of 269 league shots	15	0.83	12.4
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 27 % of 363	2	0.81	1.6
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 27 % of 363	3	0.81	2.4
Three · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 27 % of 363	1	0.81	0.8
Total adds up	381	0.96	365.2

⁠

Where Innflößer Rosenheim shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

See all terms

Every shot this season

381 of 381 shots shown

44.1%

168 of 381 from the floor, 6 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 83 / 132 63% · avg 2.0 ft 47 of the 83 makes assisted league 60% 166pts

MID 19 / 70 27% · avg 14.6 ft 7 of the 19 makes assisted league 35% 38pts

THREE 66 / 179 37% · avg 25.2 ft 58 of the 66 makes assisted league 30% 198pts

168 of 381 from the floor, 402 points, + 71 from the line

The dots cover 6 of 13 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

112 of 168 makes were assisted (67%): 47 + 7 + 58.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 6 games whose streams are stored, of 13 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 13 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Innflößer Rosenheim

35% 18% 47%

League

31% 24% 46%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Innflößer Rosenheim

36% 45% 16%

League

32% 45% 18%

How we counted it

Innflößer Rosenheim: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	136 drives + 13 post-ups + 172 catch and shoot + 60 pull-ups = 381

⁠

Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

See all terms

Niyazi Clayton SG 28 y

Solid41–60

Age: 28
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.5
Contract ends: End of season 3

47/95 shots 83.2 expected 125 scored ▲ +41.8

Maximilian Best SF 32 y

Solid41–60

Age: 32
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.3
Contract ends: End of season 3

49/93 shots 96.6 expected 115 scored ▲ +18.4

Roland Gerlach SG 29 y

Solid41–60

Age: 29
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: -0.2
Contract ends: End of season 4

17/59 shots 52.2 expected 42 scored ▼ −10.2

A man is listed from 50 shots.