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Jesuitas Alta Gracia

Founded 1931 in Alta Gracia

Gimnasio del Tajamar, holding 1 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Ahead of its points

Jesuitas Alta Gracia's wins run ahead of its points

+1.7 wins

Jesuitas Alta Gracia's points say about 8 wins in 22 league games. It has 10. The table has been a little kind.

10Wins so far

8.3Points say

75.2Scored a game

77.9Allowed a game

−2.7Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 22 league games	1 654
Points allowed	1 714
Allowed ÷ scored	1.0363
To the power of 14	1.6469
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 1.6469)	37.78%
× 22 games played	8.31
Wins the points say	8.3 adds up

Wins so far	10
Difference	+1.7 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Jesuitas Alta Gracia won 1 and lost 1. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 22. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Weakness

A thin attack

101.3

Jesuitas Alta Gracia score 101.3 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 103.7. That is 10th of 12.

JAG 101.3

League 103.7

How we counted it

100 × 1 654 points ÷ 1 633 possessions	101.3
League mean, 12 clubs	103.7
Rank, 12 clubs	10th of 12

Weakness

Cold shooting

48.5 %

Jesuitas Alta Gracia shoot 48.5 % effective. The league shoots 49.9 %. That is 10th of 12.

JAG 48.5 %

League 49.9 %

How we counted it

Jesuitas Alta Gracia: (619 + ½ × 172) ÷ 1 455	48.5 %
League mean, 12 clubs	49.9 %
Rank, 12 clubs	10th of 12

Strength

Safe with the ball

15.1 %

Jesuitas Alta Gracia give it away on 15.1 % of trips against the league's 16.4 %. Fewer is better: 3rd of 12.

JAG 15.1 %

League 16.4 %

How we counted it

Jesuitas Alta Gracia: 247 ÷ 1 633 possessions	15.1 %
League mean, 12 clubs	16.4 %
Rank, 12 clubs	3rd of 12

Best shot-maker

Hugo Cruz

#75 · SG

59/120shots

141points

+21.1vs expected

How we counted it

59 made of 120, 23 of them threes	59/120
Points: 2 × 59 + 23	141
His shots are worth (expected)	119.9
Above expected	141 − 119.9 = +21.1 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 10th of 12

JAG 48.5 %

League 49.9 %

How we counted it

Jesuitas Alta Gracia: (619 + ½ × 172) ÷ 1 455	48.5 %
League mean, 12 clubs	49.9 %
Rank, 12 clubs	10th of 12

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 3rd of 12

JAG 15.1 %

League 16.4 %

How we counted it

Jesuitas Alta Gracia: 247 ÷ 1 633 possessions	15.1 %
League mean, 12 clubs	16.4 %
Rank, 12 clubs	3rd of 12

Reboundsown misses won back · 10th of 12

JAG 22.6 %

League 24.9 %

How we counted it

Jesuitas Alta Gracia: 182 ÷ (182 + 625)	22.6 %
League mean, 12 clubs	24.9 %
Rank, 12 clubs	10th of 12

Free throwstries per shot · 9th of 12

JAG 23.0 %

League 23.8 %

How we counted it

Jesuitas Alta Gracia: 334 tries ÷ 1 455 shots	23.0 %
League mean, 12 clubs	23.8 %
Rank, 12 clubs	9th of 12

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Unlucky so far

Your shots have not paid off

−37.3

Over 9 games Jesuitas Alta Gracia's shots were worth 586.3 points and they scored 549 from the floor: 4.1 a game worse than the league would do from the same shots.

−37.3

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 241 + 67	549
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	586.3
Shot-making	−37.3
A game	−4.14

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 22.

Jesuitas Alta Gracia
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive36 % of 276 league shots	30	0.72	21.8
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 388	3	0.78	2.3
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 388	4	0.78	3.1
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 37 % of 1 550	15	0.74	11.2
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 37 % of 1 550	1	0.74	0.8
Mid-range · Catch and shoot40 % of 251 league shots	26	0.80	20.9
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 324	3	0.77	2.3
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 324	5	0.77	3.9
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 324	4	0.77	3.1
Mid-range · Pull-up36 % of 504 league shots	38	0.72	27.5
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 656	2	0.73	1.5
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 656	6	0.73	4.4
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 656	1	0.73	0.7
Rim · Drive60 % of 1 115 league shots	94	1.19	112.1
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 1 722	17	1.23	20.9
Rim · Drive · fast break68 % of 353 league shots	28	1.37	38.2
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 1 722	10	1.23	12.3
Rim · Post-up63 % of 202 league shots	14	1.26	17.6
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 264	1	1.26	1.3
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 290	19	1.20	22.8
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 290	4	1.20	4.8
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 290	8	1.20	9.6
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 290	3	1.20	3.6
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 2 396	6	1.22	7.3
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 2 396	1	1.22	1.2
Rim · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 2 396	1	1.22	1.2
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 3 030	7	0.98	6.9
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 3 030	4	0.98	3.9
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 3 030	1	0.98	1.0
Three · Catch and shoot33 % of 1 749 league shots	138	0.99	136.1
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance32 % of 257 league shots	18	0.96	17.2
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break35 % of 271 league shots	32	1.04	33.3
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 2 307	2	0.99	2.0
Three · Pull-up32 % of 392 league shots	25	0.96	23.9
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 515	1	0.94	0.9
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 515	4	0.94	3.8
Three · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 515	1	0.94	0.9
Total adds up	577	1.02	586.3

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Where Jesuitas Alta Gracia shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

642 of 642 shots shown

41.7%

268 of 642 from the floor, 10 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 143 / 230 62% · avg 2.0 ft 84 of the 143 makes assisted league 61% 286pts

MID 54 / 152 36% · avg 14.4 ft 26 of the 54 makes assisted league 37% 108pts

THREE 71 / 260 27% · avg 25.3 ft 63 of the 71 makes assisted league 32% 213pts

268 of 642 from the floor, 607 points, + 133 from the line

The dots cover 10 of 22 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

173 of 268 makes were assisted (65%): 84 + 26 + 63.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 9 games whose streams are stored, of 22 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 22 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Jesuitas Alta Gracia

36% 24% 40%

League

34% 22% 43%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Jesuitas Alta Gracia

34% 45% 15%

League

33% 42% 19%

How we counted it

Jesuitas Alta Gracia: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	197 drives + 32 post-ups + 262 catch and shoot + 86 pull-ups = 577

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Hugo Cruz SG 23 y

Solid41–60

Age: 23
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

59/120 shots 119.9 expected 141 scored ▲ +21.1

Javier Collet PG 26 y

Solid41–60

Age: 26
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

31/60 shots 60.3 expected 77 scored ▲ +16.7

Corey Duncan C 22 y

Strong61–80

Age: 22
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

27/59 shots 62.2 expected 60 scored ▼ −2.2

Rosendo Navarro PG 31 y

Solid41–60

Age: 31
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.2
Contract ends: End of season 1

20/53 shots 53.1 expected 43 scored ▼ −10.1

Orlando Caldeira PF 20 y

Solid41–60

Age: 20
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

35/98 shots 100.0 expected 79 scored ▼ −21.0

A man is listed from 50 shots.