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Jezerani Velenje

Founded 1959 in Velenje

Dvorana Jezero, holding 9 000

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Ahead of its points

Jezerani Velenje's wins run ahead of its points

+2.4 wins

Jezerani Velenje's points say about 7 wins in 18 league games. It has 9. The table has been a little kind.

9Wins so far

6.6Points say

88.3Scored a game

91.8Allowed a game

−3.5Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 18 league games	1 589
Points allowed	1 652
Allowed ÷ scored	1.0396
To the power of 14	1.7235
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 1.7235)	36.72%
× 18 games played	6.61
Wins the points say	6.6 adds up

Wins so far	9
Difference	+2.4 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Jezerani Velenje won 2 and lost 0. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 18. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Weakness

A leaky defence

120.0

Jezerani Velenje let in 120.0 per 100 trips against the league's 117.5. Lower is better: 9th of 10.

JEV 120.0

League 117.5

How we counted it

100 × 1 652 allowed ÷ 1 377 possessions	120.0
League mean, 10 clubs	117.5
Rank, 10 clubs	9th of 10

Weakness

Careless with the ball

19.9 %

Jezerani Velenje give it away on 19.9 % of trips against the league's 18.4 %. Fewer is better: 9th of 10.

JEV 19.9 %

League 18.4 %

How we counted it

Jezerani Velenje: 273 ÷ 1 373 possessions	19.9 %
League mean, 10 clubs	18.4 %
Rank, 10 clubs	9th of 10

Weakness

Weak on the glass

26.9 %

Jezerani Velenje win back 26.9 % of their misses. The league wins back 27.2 %. That is 8th of 10.

JEV 26.9 %

League 27.2 %

How we counted it

Jezerani Velenje: 147 ÷ (147 + 400)	26.9 %
League mean, 10 clubs	27.2 %
Rank, 10 clubs	8th of 10

Best shot-maker

Hartmut Gates

#58 · SG

61/101shots

138points

+20.5vs expected

How we counted it

61 made of 101, 16 of them threes	61/101
Points: 2 × 61 + 16	138
His shots are worth (expected)	117.5
Above expected	138 − 117.5 = +20.5 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 6th of 10

JEV 57.8 %

League 57.5 %

How we counted it

Jezerani Velenje: (553 + ½ × 184) ÷ 1 116	57.8 %
League mean, 10 clubs	57.5 %
Rank, 10 clubs	6th of 10

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 9th of 10

JEV 19.9 %

League 18.4 %

How we counted it

Jezerani Velenje: 273 ÷ 1 373 possessions	19.9 %
League mean, 10 clubs	18.4 %
Rank, 10 clubs	9th of 10

Reboundsown misses won back · 8th of 10

JEV 26.9 %

League 27.2 %

How we counted it

Jezerani Velenje: 147 ÷ (147 + 400)	26.9 %
League mean, 10 clubs	27.2 %
Rank, 10 clubs	8th of 10

Free throwstries per shot · 8th of 10

JEV 31.9 %

League 33.3 %

How we counted it

Jezerani Velenje: 356 tries ÷ 1 116 shots	31.9 %
League mean, 10 clubs	33.3 %
Rank, 10 clubs	8th of 10

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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As expected

Right on what the shots are worth

+11.6

Over 9 games Jezerani Velenje's shots were worth 621.4 points and they scored 633 from the floor: 1.3 a game in line with what than the league would do from the same shots.

+11.6

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 272 + 89	633
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	621.4
Shot-making	+11.6
A game	+1.29

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 18.

Jezerani Velenje
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 254	17	0.77	13.1
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 254	5	0.77	3.8
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 254	4	0.77	3.1
Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 254	1	0.77	0.8
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 44 % of 1 130	16	0.87	14.0
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 44 % of 1 130	2	0.87	1.7
Mid-range · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 48 % of 211	9	0.96	8.6
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 48 % of 211	2	0.96	1.9
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 48 % of 211	9	0.96	8.6
Mid-range · Pull-up41 % of 354 league shots	32	0.82	26.4
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 473	5	0.86	4.3
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 473	6	0.86	5.1
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 473	1	0.86	0.9
Rim · Drive64 % of 860 league shots	97	1.27	123.6
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 1 349	12	1.29	15.5
Rim · Drive · fast break68 % of 344 league shots	32	1.36	43.5
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 1 349	3	1.29	3.9
Rim · Post-up60 % of 251 league shots	18	1.20	21.6
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 300	3	1.25	3.8
Rim · Catch and shoot66 % of 210 league shots	18	1.32	23.8
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 68 % of 341	3	1.36	4.1
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 68 % of 341	10	1.36	13.6
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 68 % of 341	1	1.36	1.4
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 65 % of 2 182	11	1.30	14.3
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 65 % of 2 182	1	1.30	1.3
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 65 % of 2 182	5	1.30	6.5
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 38 % of 2 248	9	1.15	10.3
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 38 % of 2 248	2	1.15	2.3
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 38 % of 2 248	2	1.15	2.3
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 38 % of 2 248	2	1.15	2.3
Three · Catch and shoot38 % of 1 247 league shots	127	1.15	146.3
Three · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 1 683	21	1.14	24.0
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break35 % of 224 league shots	22	1.06	23.3
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 1 683	6	1.14	6.9
Three · Pull-up40 % of 311 league shots	23	1.19	27.3
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 408	4	1.19	4.8
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 408	2	1.19	2.4
Total adds up	543	1.14	621.4

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Where Jezerani Velenje shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

543 of 543 shots shown

50.1%

272 of 543 from the floor, 9 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 133 / 214 62% · avg 2.0 ft 74 of the 133 makes assisted league 65% 266pts

MID 50 / 109 46% · avg 14.5 ft 27 of the 50 makes assisted league 44% 100pts

THREE 89 / 220 41% · avg 25.3 ft 84 of the 89 makes assisted league 38% 267pts

272 of 543 from the floor, 633 points, + 159 from the line

The dots cover 9 of 18 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

185 of 272 makes were assisted (68%): 74 + 27 + 84.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 9 games whose streams are stored, of 18 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 18 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Jezerani Velenje

39% 20% 41%

League

39% 20% 40%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Jezerani Velenje

34% 42% 17%

League

31% 9% 40% 19%

How we counted it

Jezerani Velenje: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	184 drives + 41 post-ups + 228 catch and shoot + 90 pull-ups = 543

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Hartmut Gates SG 19 y

Strong61–80

Age: 19
Potential: Elite (81–99)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

61/101 shots 117.5 expected 138 scored ▲ +20.5

Boštjan Savković PG 29 y

Strong61–80

Age: 29
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 3

51/92 shots 107.1 expected 116 scored ▲ +8.9

Lan Poljšak PF 26 y

Strong61–80

Age: 26
Potential: Elite (81–99)
Form: -0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

28/60 shots 66.1 expected 69 scored ▲ +2.9

Germán Rodrigo SF 22 y

Solid41–60

Age: 22
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 4

24/52 shots 56.4 expected 58 scored ▲ +1.6

Moussa Leroy C 25 y

Strong61–80

Age: 25
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 3

30/58 shots 67.2 expected 67 scored ▼ −0.2

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Coldest shooters

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Gregor Gündoğdu PG 22 y

Strong61–80

Age: 22
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

20/50 shots 57.9 expected 53 scored ▼ −4.9

A man is listed from 50 shots.