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Joalheiros Limeira

Founded 1943 in Limeira

Ginásio do Ribeirão Tatu, holding 7 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Joalheiros Limeira's wins match its points

+0.1 wins

Joalheiros Limeira's points say about 10 wins in 19 league games. It has 10. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

10Wins so far

9.9Points say

86.7Scored a game

86.1Allowed a game

+0.6Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 19 league games	1 647
Points allowed	1 636
Allowed ÷ scored	0.9933
To the power of 14	0.9104
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.9104)	52.34%
× 19 games played	9.95
Wins the points say	9.9 adds up

Wins so far	10
Difference	+0.1 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Joalheiros Limeira won 2 and lost 2. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 19. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Weakness

Few trips to the line

27.5

Joalheiros Limeira attempt 27.5 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 31.4, so 20th of 20.

JLI 27.5 %

League 31.4 %

How we counted it

Joalheiros Limeira: 345 tries ÷ 1 254 shots	27.5 %
League mean, 20 clubs	31.4 %
Rank, 20 clubs	20th of 20

Weakness

Careless with the ball

18.9 %

Joalheiros Limeira give it away on 18.9 % of trips against the league's 18.5 %. Fewer is better: 13th of 20.

JLI 18.9 %

League 18.5 %

How we counted it

Joalheiros Limeira: 277 ÷ 1 467 possessions	18.9 %
League mean, 20 clubs	18.5 %
Rank, 20 clubs	13th of 20

Strength

Strong on the glass

27.6 %

Joalheiros Limeira win back 27.6 % of their misses. The league wins back 26.2 %. That is 8th of 20.

JLI 27.6 %

League 26.2 %

How we counted it

Joalheiros Limeira: 174 ÷ (174 + 456)	27.6 %
League mean, 20 clubs	26.2 %
Rank, 20 clubs	8th of 20

Best shot-maker

Wilson Bravo

#4 · SG

43/78shots

97points

+11.0vs expected

How we counted it

43 made of 78, 11 of them threes	43/78
Points: 2 × 43 + 11	97
His shots are worth (expected)	86.0
Above expected	97 − 86.0 = +11.0 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 11th of 20

JLI 54.6 %

League 54.5 %

How we counted it

Joalheiros Limeira: (587 + ½ × 195) ÷ 1 254	54.6 %
League mean, 20 clubs	54.5 %
Rank, 20 clubs	11th of 20

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 13th of 20

JLI 18.9 %

League 18.5 %

How we counted it

Joalheiros Limeira: 277 ÷ 1 467 possessions	18.9 %
League mean, 20 clubs	18.5 %
Rank, 20 clubs	13th of 20

Reboundsown misses won back · 8th of 20

JLI 27.6 %

League 26.2 %

How we counted it

Joalheiros Limeira: 174 ÷ (174 + 456)	27.6 %
League mean, 20 clubs	26.2 %
Rank, 20 clubs	8th of 20

Free throwstries per shot · 20th of 20

JLI 27.5 %

League 31.4 %

How we counted it

Joalheiros Limeira: 345 tries ÷ 1 254 shots	27.5 %
League mean, 20 clubs	31.4 %
Rank, 20 clubs	20th of 20

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Unlucky so far

Your shots have not paid off

−20.2

Over 9 games Joalheiros Limeira's shots were worth 619.2 points and they scored 599 from the floor: 2.2 a game worse than the league would do from the same shots.

−20.2

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 257 + 85	599
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	619.2
Shot-making	−20.2
A game	−2.24

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 19.

Joalheiros Limeira
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive42 % of 288 league shots	12	0.85	10.2
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 428	6	0.87	5.2
Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 428	1	0.87	0.9
Mid-range · Post-up39 % of 267 league shots	20	0.78	15.6
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 344	5	0.80	4.0
Mid-range · Catch and shoot39 % of 285 league shots	10	0.78	7.8
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 388	2	0.80	1.6
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 388	3	0.80	2.4
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 388	3	0.80	2.4
Mid-range · Pull-up39 % of 654 league shots	28	0.78	21.7
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 921	4	0.78	3.1
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 921	7	0.78	5.5
Rim · Drive61 % of 1 511 league shots	68	1.22	82.6
Rim · Drive · second chance58 % of 252 league shots	14	1.15	16.1
Rim · Drive · fast break64 % of 610 league shots	36	1.27	45.8
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 2 476	6	1.23	7.4
Rim · Post-up65 % of 376 league shots	33	1.29	42.7
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 484	6	1.29	7.7
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 484	2	1.29	2.6
Rim · Post-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 484	1	1.29	1.3
Rim · Catch and shoot64 % of 431 league shots	27	1.28	34.5
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 678	4	1.28	5.1
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 678	13	1.28	16.6
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 678	1	1.28	1.3
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 296	10	1.26	12.6
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 296	4	1.26	5.0
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 297	12	1.13	13.6
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 297	2	1.13	2.3
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 297	3	1.13	3.4
Three · Catch and shoot34 % of 2 339 league shots	139	1.03	143.0
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance34 % of 333 league shots	27	1.03	27.7
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break36 % of 431 league shots	21	1.09	22.8
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 3 164	6	1.04	6.2
Three · Pull-up36 % of 560 league shots	27	1.07	28.9
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 786	7	1.08	7.5
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 786	2	1.08	2.1
Total adds up	572	1.08	619.2

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Where Joalheiros Limeira shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

572 of 572 shots shown

44.9%

257 of 572 from the floor, 9 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 136 / 225 60% · avg 2.0 ft 90 of the 136 makes assisted league 63% 272pts

MID 36 / 101 36% · avg 13.9 ft 14 of the 36 makes assisted league 41% 72pts

THREE 85 / 246 35% · avg 25.2 ft 78 of the 85 makes assisted league 36% 255pts

257 of 572 from the floor, 599 points, + 161 from the line

The dots cover 9 of 19 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

182 of 257 makes were assisted (71%): 90 + 14 + 78.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 9 games whose streams are stored, of 19 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 19 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Joalheiros Limeira

39% 18% 43%

League

38% 20% 41%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Joalheiros Limeira

28% 12% 45% 16%

League

31% 8% 41% 19%

Joalheiros Limeira lean on post-ups: 11.7 % of its shots against the league's 8.2 %.

How we counted it

Joalheiros Limeira: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	160 drives + 67 post-ups + 256 catch and shoot + 89 pull-ups = 572

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Wilson Bravo SG 23 y

Strong61–80

Age: 23
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

43/78 shots 86.0 expected 97 scored ▲ +11.0

Jesús Iturbe SF 20 y

Strong61–80

Age: 20
Potential: Elite (81–99)
Form: -0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

48/96 shots 102.4 expected 111 scored ▲ +8.6

Homer Dickson C 29 y

Strong61–80

Age: 29
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.1
Contract ends: End of season 4

38/80 shots 87.7 expected 92 scored ▲ +4.3

Timur Demirkan PG 23 y

Strong61–80

Age: 23
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.3
Contract ends: End of season 4

22/56 shots 58.3 expected 55 scored ▼ −3.3

Uglješa Mirković Injured SF 31 y

Strong61–80

Age: 31
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 3

37/89 shots 95.0 expected 84 scored ▼ −11.0

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Coldest shooters

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Roberto Castilho PF 22 y

Strong61–80

Age: 22
Potential: Elite (81–99)
Form: -0.1
Contract ends: End of season 4

33/74 shots 83.3 expected 72 scored ▼ −11.3

A man is listed from 50 shots.