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Kalviai Vilnius

Founded 1934 in Vilnius

Neries arena, holding 12 000

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Ahead of its points

Kalviai Vilnius's wins run ahead of its points

+2.1 wins

Kalviai Vilnius's points say about 4 wins in 18 league games. It has 6. The table has been a little kind.

6Wins so far

3.9Points say

84.1Scored a game

92.1Allowed a game

−8.0Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 18 league games	1 513
Points allowed	1 657
Allowed ÷ scored	1.0952
To the power of 14	3.5708
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 3.5708)	21.88%
× 18 games played	3.94
Wins the points say	3.9 adds up

Wins so far	6
Difference	+2.1 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Kalviai Vilnius won 4 and lost 1. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 18. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Weakness

A thin attack

110.1

Kalviai Vilnius score 110.1 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 114.2. That is 10th of 10.

KAV 110.1

League 114.2

How we counted it

100 × 1 513 points ÷ 1 374 possessions	110.1
League mean, 10 clubs	114.2
Rank, 10 clubs	10th of 10

Weakness

A leaky defence

120.5

Kalviai Vilnius let in 120.5 per 100 trips against the league's 114.2. Lower is better: 10th of 10.

KAV 120.5

League 114.2

How we counted it

100 × 1 657 allowed ÷ 1 375 possessions	120.5
League mean, 10 clubs	114.2
Rank, 10 clubs	10th of 10

Weakness

Weak on the glass

24.3 %

Kalviai Vilnius win back 24.3 % of their misses. The league wins back 26.9 %. That is 10th of 10.

KAV 24.3 %

League 26.9 %

How we counted it

Kalviai Vilnius: 138 ÷ (138 + 430)	24.3 %
League mean, 10 clubs	26.9 %
Rank, 10 clubs	10th of 10

Best shot-maker

Remigijus Mašić

#92 · SF

62/103shots

139points

+25.2vs expected

How we counted it

62 made of 103, 15 of them threes	62/103
Points: 2 × 62 + 15	139
His shots are worth (expected)	113.8
Above expected	139 − 113.8 = +25.2 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 5th of 10

KAV 55.9 %

League 56.1 %

How we counted it

Kalviai Vilnius: (542 + ½ × 164) ÷ 1 116	55.9 %
League mean, 10 clubs	56.1 %
Rank, 10 clubs	5th of 10

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 7th of 10

KAV 19.4 %

League 19.1 %

How we counted it

Kalviai Vilnius: 266 ÷ 1 374 possessions	19.4 %
League mean, 10 clubs	19.1 %
Rank, 10 clubs	7th of 10

Reboundsown misses won back · 10th of 10

KAV 24.3 %

League 26.9 %

How we counted it

Kalviai Vilnius: 138 ÷ (138 + 430)	24.3 %
League mean, 10 clubs	26.9 %
Rank, 10 clubs	10th of 10

Free throwstries per shot · 3rd of 10

KAV 33.0 %

League 31.0 %

How we counted it

Kalviai Vilnius: 368 tries ÷ 1 116 shots	33.0 %
League mean, 10 clubs	31.0 %
Rank, 10 clubs	3rd of 10

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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As expected

Right on what the shots are worth

+13.0

Over 9 games Kalviai Vilnius's shots were worth 597.0 points and they scored 610 from the floor: 1.4 a game in line with what than the league would do from the same shots.

+13.0

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 264 + 82	610
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	597.0
Shot-making	+13.0
A game	+1.44

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 18.

Kalviai Vilnius
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 232	17	0.72	12.2
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 232	1	0.72	0.7
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 232	6	0.72	4.3
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 41 % of 1 088	10	0.83	8.3
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 41 % of 1 088	2	0.83	1.6
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 41 % of 1 088	1	0.83	0.8
Mid-range · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 41 % of 1 088	8	0.83	6.6
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 41 % of 1 088	1	0.83	0.8
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 41 % of 1 088	1	0.83	0.8
Mid-range · Pull-up43 % of 366 league shots	42	0.85	35.8
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 507	9	0.83	7.5
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 507	4	0.83	3.3
Rim · Drive61 % of 844 league shots	84	1.21	101.7
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 1 412	12	1.26	15.1
Rim · Drive · fast break69 % of 374 league shots	43	1.39	59.6
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 1 412	3	1.26	3.8
Rim · Post-up61 % of 223 league shots	21	1.22	25.6
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 290	2	1.19	2.4
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 290	5	1.19	6.0
Rim · Catch and shoot60 % of 245 league shots	16	1.19	19.1
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 372	2	1.26	2.5
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 372	4	1.26	5.0
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 62 % of 2 238	20	1.24	24.9
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 62 % of 2 238	2	1.24	2.5
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 62 % of 2 238	1	1.24	1.2
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 38 % of 2 357	10	1.13	11.3
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 38 % of 2 357	1	1.13	1.1
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 38 % of 2 357	2	1.13	2.3
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 38 % of 2 357	1	1.13	1.1
Three · Catch and shoot38 % of 1 311 league shots	118	1.15	135.3
Three · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 1 784	14	1.15	16.1
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break39 % of 245 league shots	28	1.16	32.6
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 1 784	5	1.15	5.7
Three · Pull-up38 % of 259 league shots	24	1.15	27.5
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 379	5	1.08	5.4
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 379	5	1.08	5.4
Three · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 379	1	1.08	1.1
Total adds up	531	1.12	597.0

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Where Kalviai Vilnius shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

531 of 531 shots shown

49.7%

264 of 531 from the floor, 9 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 136 / 215 63% · avg 1.9 ft 67 of the 136 makes assisted league 63% 272pts

MID 46 / 102 45% · avg 14.7 ft 20 of the 46 makes assisted league 41% 92pts

THREE 82 / 214 38% · avg 25.2 ft 69 of the 82 makes assisted league 38% 246pts

264 of 531 from the floor, 610 points, + 138 from the line

The dots cover 9 of 18 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

156 of 264 makes were assisted (59%): 67 + 20 + 69.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 9 games whose streams are stored, of 18 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 18 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Kalviai Vilnius

40% 19% 40%

League

39% 19% 41%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Kalviai Vilnius

34% 37% 21%

League

32% 8% 41% 18%

How we counted it

Kalviai Vilnius: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	179 drives + 42 post-ups + 197 catch and shoot + 113 pull-ups = 531

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Remigijus Mašić SF 24 y

Strong61–80

Age: 24
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 4

62/103 shots 113.8 expected 139 scored ▲ +25.2

Pijus Štombergas SG 28 y

Strong61–80

Age: 28
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

55/108 shots 123.0 expected 133 scored ▲ +10.0

Vidmantas Indriūnas SG 26 y

Solid41–60

Age: 26
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: -0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

22/50 shots 55.1 expected 56 scored ▲ +0.9

Česlovas Indriūnas SF 23 y

Strong61–80

Age: 23
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.3
Contract ends: End of season 2

34/83 shots 94.9 expected 78 scored ▼ −16.9

A man is listed from 50 shots.