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Kanonia Nafplio

Founded 1929 in Nafplio

Gymnastirio tou Palamidiou, holding 2 000

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Ahead of its points

Kanonia Nafplio's wins run ahead of its points

+1.9 wins

Kanonia Nafplio's points say about 5 wins in 13 league games. It has 7. The table has been a little kind.

7Wins so far

5.1Points say

77.0Scored a game

79.5Allowed a game

−2.5Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 13 league games	1 001
Points allowed	1 033
Allowed ÷ scored	1.0320
To the power of 14	1.5536
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 1.5536)	39.16%
× 13 games played	5.09
Wins the points say	5.1 adds up

Wins so far	7
Difference	+1.9 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Kanonia Nafplio won 3 and lost 0. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 13. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Weakness

A leaky defence

108.5

Kanonia Nafplio let in 108.5 per 100 trips against the league's 104.1. Lower is better: 14th of 14.

KAN 108.5

League 104.1

How we counted it

100 × 1 033 allowed ÷ 952 possessions	108.5
League mean, 14 clubs	104.1
Rank, 14 clubs	14th of 14

Strength

Plenty of trips to the line

27.1

Kanonia Nafplio attempt 27.1 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 25.2, so 4th of 14.

KAN 27.1 %

League 25.2 %

How we counted it

Kanonia Nafplio: 227 tries ÷ 837 shots	27.1 %
League mean, 14 clubs	25.2 %
Rank, 14 clubs	4th of 14

Weakness

Cold shooting

49.0 %

Kanonia Nafplio shoot 49.0 % effective. The league shoots 49.9 %. That is 10th of 14.

KAN 49.0 %

League 49.9 %

How we counted it

Kanonia Nafplio: (357 + ½ × 107) ÷ 837	49.0 %
League mean, 14 clubs	49.9 %
Rank, 14 clubs	10th of 14

Best shot-maker

Radovan Glišić

#75 · SF

37/70shots

88points

+19.0vs expected

How we counted it

37 made of 70, 14 of them threes	37/70
Points: 2 × 37 + 14	88
His shots are worth (expected)	69.0
Above expected	88 − 69.0 = +19.0 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 10th of 14

KAN 49.0 %

League 49.9 %

How we counted it

Kanonia Nafplio: (357 + ½ × 107) ÷ 837	49.0 %
League mean, 14 clubs	49.9 %
Rank, 14 clubs	10th of 14

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 8th of 14

KAN 17.1 %

League 17.1 %

How we counted it

Kanonia Nafplio: 162 ÷ 949 possessions	17.1 %
League mean, 14 clubs	17.1 %
Rank, 14 clubs	8th of 14

Reboundsown misses won back · 5th of 14

KAN 26.4 %

League 25.2 %

How we counted it

Kanonia Nafplio: 119 ÷ (119 + 332)	26.4 %
League mean, 14 clubs	25.2 %
Rank, 14 clubs	5th of 14

Free throwstries per shot · 4th of 14

KAN 27.1 %

League 25.2 %

How we counted it

Kanonia Nafplio: 227 tries ÷ 837 shots	27.1 %
League mean, 14 clubs	25.2 %
Rank, 14 clubs	4th of 14

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Unlucky so far

Your shots have not paid off

−25.4

Over 6 games Kanonia Nafplio's shots were worth 378.4 points and they scored 353 from the floor: 4.2 a game worse than the league would do from the same shots.

−25.4

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 156 + 41	353
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	378.4
Shot-making	−25.4
A game	−4.23

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 13.

Kanonia Nafplio
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 293	15	0.68	10.1
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 293	3	0.68	2.0
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 293	1	0.68	0.7
Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 293	1	0.68	0.7
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 1 138	8	0.70	5.6
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 1 138	1	0.70	0.7
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 1 138	1	0.70	0.7
Mid-range · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 225	11	0.83	9.1
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 225	1	0.83	0.8
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 225	1	0.83	0.8
Mid-range · Pull-up33 % of 363 league shots	26	0.66	17.2
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 484	7	0.64	4.5
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 484	4	0.64	2.6
Rim · Drive58 % of 863 league shots	89	1.16	103.1
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 1 329	17	1.20	20.4
Rim · Drive · fast break68 % of 273 league shots	12	1.36	16.3
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 1 329	4	1.20	4.8
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 225	11	1.21	13.3
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 225	5	1.21	6.0
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 264	9	1.23	11.1
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 264	1	1.23	1.2
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 264	8	1.23	9.8
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 919	5	1.20	6.0
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 919	3	1.20	3.6
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 31 % of 2 234	6	0.92	5.5
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 31 % of 2 234	1	0.92	0.9
Three · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 31 % of 2 234	1	0.92	0.9
Three · Catch and shoot32 % of 1 275 league shots	79	0.96	75.5
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance32 % of 212 league shots	12	0.95	11.4
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break25 % of 212 league shots	11	0.75	8.3
Three · Pull-up30 % of 263 league shots	21	0.89	18.7
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 29 % of 348	6	0.86	5.2
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 29 % of 348	1	0.86	0.9
Total adds up	382	0.99	378.4

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Where Kanonia Nafplio shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

382 of 382 shots shown

40.8%

156 of 382 from the floor, 6 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 94 / 164 57% · avg 2.0 ft 39 of the 94 makes assisted league 60% 188pts

MID 21 / 80 26% · avg 14.8 ft 7 of the 21 makes assisted league 37% 42pts

THREE 41 / 138 30% · avg 25.4 ft 34 of the 41 makes assisted league 32% 123pts

156 of 382 from the floor, 353 points, + 96 from the line

The dots cover 6 of 13 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

80 of 156 makes were assisted (51%): 39 + 7 + 34.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 6 games whose streams are stored, of 13 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 13 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Kanonia Nafplio

43% 21% 36%

League

36% 22% 42%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Kanonia Nafplio

39% 35% 19%

League

33% 42% 18%

How we counted it

Kanonia Nafplio: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	150 drives + 26 post-ups + 133 catch and shoot + 73 pull-ups = 382

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Radovan Glišić SF 24 y

Solid41–60

Age: 24
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

37/70 shots 69.0 expected 88 scored ▲ +19.0

Damaskinos Balaban PG 28 y

Strong61–80

Age: 28
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 4

44/87 shots 92.5 expected 100 scored ▲ +7.5

Strahinja Kolundžić SF 20 y

Solid41–60

Age: 20
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: -0.4
Contract ends: End of season 4

19/59 shots 55.3 expected 43 scored ▼ −12.3

A man is listed from 50 shots.