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Karvounades Acharnes

Founded 1948 in Acharnes

Gymnastirio tis Parnithas, holding 2 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Karvounades Acharnes's wins match its points

−0.7 wins

Karvounades Acharnes's points say about 7 wins in 13 league games. It has 6. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

6Wins so far

6.7Points say

75.8Scored a game

75.4Allowed a game

+0.4Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 13 league games	985
Points allowed	980
Allowed ÷ scored	0.9949
To the power of 14	0.9312
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.9312)	51.78%
× 13 games played	6.73
Wins the points say	6.7 adds up

Wins so far	6
Difference	−0.7 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Karvounades Acharnes won 1 and lost 4. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 13. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Weakness

Cold shooting

48.4 %

Karvounades Acharnes shoot 48.4 % effective. The league shoots 50.3 %. That is 11th of 14.

KAR 48.4 %

League 50.3 %

How we counted it

Karvounades Acharnes: (371 + ½ × 104) ÷ 874	48.4 %
League mean, 14 clubs	50.3 %
Rank, 14 clubs	11th of 14

Strength

Strong on the glass

28.2 %

Karvounades Acharnes win back 28.2 % of their misses. The league wins back 26.0 %. That is 5th of 14.

KAR 28.2 %

League 26.0 %

How we counted it

Karvounades Acharnes: 137 ÷ (137 + 349)	28.2 %
League mean, 14 clubs	26.0 %
Rank, 14 clubs	5th of 14

Weakness

A thin attack

103.0

Karvounades Acharnes score 103.0 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 104.0. That is 9th of 14.

KAR 103.0

League 104.0

How we counted it

100 × 985 points ÷ 956 possessions	103.0
League mean, 14 clubs	104.0
Rank, 14 clubs	9th of 14

Best shot-maker

Floyd Donovan

#43 · SF

26/58shots

64points

+5.6vs expected

How we counted it

26 made of 58, 12 of them threes	26/58
Points: 2 × 26 + 12	64
His shots are worth (expected)	58.4
Above expected	64 − 58.4 = +5.6 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 11th of 14

KAR 48.4 %

League 50.3 %

How we counted it

Karvounades Acharnes: (371 + ½ × 104) ÷ 874	48.4 %
League mean, 14 clubs	50.3 %
Rank, 14 clubs	11th of 14

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 8th of 14

KAR 16.4 %

League 16.7 %

How we counted it

Karvounades Acharnes: 157 ÷ 956 possessions	16.4 %
League mean, 14 clubs	16.7 %
Rank, 14 clubs	8th of 14

Reboundsown misses won back · 5th of 14

KAR 28.2 %

League 26.0 %

How we counted it

Karvounades Acharnes: 137 ÷ (137 + 349)	28.2 %
League mean, 14 clubs	26.0 %
Rank, 14 clubs	5th of 14

Free throwstries per shot · 8th of 14

KAR 22.5 %

League 22.7 %

How we counted it

Karvounades Acharnes: 197 tries ÷ 874 shots	22.5 %
League mean, 14 clubs	22.7 %
Rank, 14 clubs	8th of 14

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Unlucky so far

Your shots have not paid off

−22.9

Over 6 games Karvounades Acharnes's shots were worth 392.9 points and they scored 370 from the floor: 3.8 a game worse than the league would do from the same shots.

−22.9

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 163 + 44	370
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	392.9
Shot-making	−22.9
A game	−3.81

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 13.

Karvounades Acharnes
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive40 % of 215 league shots	15	0.80	12.0
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 306	6	0.78	4.7
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 306	4	0.78	3.1
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 39 % of 1 263	7	0.77	5.4
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 39 % of 1 263	2	0.77	1.5
Mid-range · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 238	14	0.79	11.1
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 238	3	0.79	2.4
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 238	1	0.79	0.8
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 238	1	0.79	0.8
Mid-range · Pull-up36 % of 411 league shots	34	0.73	24.7
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 568	6	0.76	4.6
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 568	5	0.76	3.8
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 568	4	0.76	3.0
Rim · Drive60 % of 887 league shots	50	1.20	60.0
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 1 352	15	1.21	18.2
Rim · Drive · fast break58 % of 284 league shots	24	1.17	28.1
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 1 352	6	1.21	7.3
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 51 % of 232	15	1.02	15.3
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 51 % of 232	3	1.02	3.0
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 51 % of 232	1	1.02	1.0
Rim · Post-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 51 % of 232	1	1.02	1.0
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 231	7	1.23	8.6
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 231	1	1.23	1.2
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 231	5	1.23	6.1
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 231	1	1.23	1.2
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 908	2	1.19	2.4
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 908	2	1.19	2.4
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 32 % of 2 235	2	0.97	1.9
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 32 % of 2 235	1	0.97	1.0
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 32 % of 2 235	6	0.97	5.8
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 32 % of 2 235	1	0.97	1.0
Three · Catch and shoot31 % of 1 284 league shots	86	0.94	80.6
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance31 % of 221 league shots	19	0.92	17.5
Three · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 1 719	18	0.97	17.4
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 1 719	4	0.97	3.9
Three · Pull-up32 % of 280 league shots	19	0.96	18.3
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 382	5	0.99	4.9
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 382	5	0.99	4.9
Three · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 382	2	0.99	2.0
Total adds up	403	0.97	392.9

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Where Karvounades Acharnes shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

403 of 403 shots shown

40.4%

163 of 403 from the floor, 6 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 86 / 133 65% · avg 2.0 ft 45 of the 86 makes assisted league 60% 172pts

MID 33 / 102 32% · avg 14.5 ft 16 of the 33 makes assisted league 38% 66pts

THREE 44 / 168 26% · avg 25.1 ft 38 of the 44 makes assisted league 32% 132pts

163 of 403 from the floor, 370 points, + 74 from the line

The dots cover 6 of 13 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

99 of 163 makes were assisted (61%): 45 + 16 + 38.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 6 games whose streams are stored, of 13 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 13 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Karvounades Acharnes

33% 25% 42%

League

35% 23% 41%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Karvounades Acharnes

32% 40% 21%

League

33% 40% 19%

How we counted it

Karvounades Acharnes: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	129 drives + 30 post-ups + 160 catch and shoot + 84 pull-ups = 403

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Floyd Donovan SF 24 y

Solid41–60

Age: 24
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.3
Contract ends: End of season 4

26/58 shots 58.4 expected 64 scored ▲ +5.6

Antonis Akgün PG 24 y

Solid41–60

Age: 24
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 4

41/88 shots 87.0 expected 88 scored ▲ +1.0

Youssef Wahab SG 26 y

Solid41–60

Age: 26
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 3

25/61 shots 60.2 expected 55 scored ▼ −5.2

Kallinikos Paunović SG 24 y

Solid41–60

Age: 24
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

18/50 shots 48.1 expected 42 scored ▼ −6.1

A man is listed from 50 shots.