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Kaštelani Pazin

Founded 1972 in Pazin

Dvorana nad Pazinskom jamom, holding 2 000

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Ahead of its points

Kaštelani Pazin's wins run ahead of its points

+1.7 wins

Kaštelani Pazin's points say about 6 wins in 22 league games. It has 8. The table has been a little kind.

8Wins so far

6.3Points say

74.9Scored a game

79.9Allowed a game

−5.0Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 22 league games	1 647
Points allowed	1 758
Allowed ÷ scored	1.0674
To the power of 14	2.4920
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 2.4920)	28.64%
× 22 games played	6.30
Wins the points say	6.3 adds up

Wins so far	8
Difference	+1.7 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Kaštelani Pazin won 2 and lost 2. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 22. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Weakness

Careless with the ball

18.6 %

Kaštelani Pazin give it away on 18.6 % of trips against the league's 17.0 %. Fewer is better: 12th of 12.

KPA 18.6 %

League 17.0 %

How we counted it

Kaštelani Pazin: 302 ÷ 1 628 possessions	18.6 %
League mean, 12 clubs	17.0 %
Rank, 12 clubs	12th of 12

Weakness

Few trips to the line

21.5

Kaštelani Pazin attempt 21.5 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 24.8, so 12th of 12.

KPA 21.5 %

League 24.8 %

How we counted it

Kaštelani Pazin: 305 tries ÷ 1 419 shots	21.5 %
League mean, 12 clubs	24.8 %
Rank, 12 clubs	12th of 12

Weakness

A thin attack

101.2

Kaštelani Pazin score 101.2 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 106.3. That is 11th of 12.

KPA 101.2

League 106.3

How we counted it

100 × 1 647 points ÷ 1 628 possessions	101.2
League mean, 12 clubs	106.3
Rank, 12 clubs	11th of 12

Best shot-maker

Selçuk Aslan

#2 · SF

47/85shots

106points

+16.2vs expected

How we counted it

47 made of 85, 12 of them threes	47/85
Points: 2 × 47 + 12	106
His shots are worth (expected)	89.8
Above expected	106 − 89.8 = +16.2 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 8th of 12

KPA 50.1 %

League 51.1 %

How we counted it

Kaštelani Pazin: (615 + ½ × 192) ÷ 1 419	50.1 %
League mean, 12 clubs	51.1 %
Rank, 12 clubs	8th of 12

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 12th of 12

KPA 18.6 %

League 17.0 %

How we counted it

Kaštelani Pazin: 302 ÷ 1 628 possessions	18.6 %
League mean, 12 clubs	17.0 %
Rank, 12 clubs	12th of 12

Reboundsown misses won back · 10th of 12

KPA 24.0 %

League 26.3 %

How we counted it

Kaštelani Pazin: 189 ÷ (189 + 599)	24.0 %
League mean, 12 clubs	26.3 %
Rank, 12 clubs	10th of 12

Free throwstries per shot · 12th of 12

KPA 21.5 %

League 24.8 %

How we counted it

Kaštelani Pazin: 305 tries ÷ 1 419 shots	21.5 %
League mean, 12 clubs	24.8 %
Rank, 12 clubs	12th of 12

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Unlucky so far

Your shots have not paid off

−19.9

Over 10 games Kaštelani Pazin's shots were worth 631.9 points and they scored 612 from the floor: 2.0 a game worse than the league would do from the same shots.

−19.9

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 267 + 78	612
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	631.9
Shot-making	−19.9
A game	−1.99

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 22.

Kaštelani Pazin
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive39 % of 252 league shots	20	0.78	15.6
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 376	5	0.74	3.7
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 376	6	0.74	4.5
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 37 % of 1 475	10	0.75	7.5
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 37 % of 1 475	1	0.75	0.8
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 37 % of 1 475	1	0.75	0.8
Mid-range · Catch and shoot40 % of 242 league shots	28	0.81	22.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 316	1	0.82	0.8
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 316	3	0.82	2.4
Mid-range · Pull-up37 % of 472 league shots	44	0.75	32.8
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 616	2	0.74	1.5
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 616	6	0.74	4.4
Rim · Drive62 % of 1 171 league shots	106	1.23	130.9
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 1 797	10	1.23	12.3
Rim · Drive · fast break66 % of 377 league shots	35	1.32	46.0
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 1 797	5	1.23	6.2
Rim · Post-up62 % of 205 league shots	21	1.25	26.2
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 261	3	1.25	3.7
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 261	3	1.25	3.7
Rim · Catch and shoot64 % of 224 league shots	15	1.28	19.2
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 355	4	1.25	5.0
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 355	1	1.25	1.2
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 62 % of 2 521	8	1.24	9.9
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 2 968	7	1.00	7.0
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 2 968	1	1.00	1.0
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 2 968	2	1.00	2.0
Three · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 2 968	1	1.00	1.0
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 2 968	1	1.00	1.0
Three · Catch and shoot33 % of 1 727 league shots	159	1.00	159.1
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance35 % of 285 league shots	27	1.05	28.4
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break33 % of 231 league shots	22	0.99	21.7
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 2 291	4	1.01	4.0
Three · Pull-up33 % of 365 league shots	34	0.98	33.3
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 477	11	0.96	10.6
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 477	1	0.96	1.0
Total adds up	608	1.04	631.9

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Where Kaštelani Pazin shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

608 of 608 shots shown

43.9%

267 of 608 from the floor, 10 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 137 / 211 65% · avg 2.0 ft 80 of the 137 makes assisted league 61% 274pts

MID 52 / 127 41% · avg 15.3 ft 21 of the 52 makes assisted league 38% 104pts

THREE 78 / 270 29% · avg 25.3 ft 67 of the 78 makes assisted league 33% 234pts

267 of 608 from the floor, 612 points, + 106 from the line

The dots cover 10 of 22 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

168 of 267 makes were assisted (63%): 80 + 21 + 67.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 10 games whose streams are stored, of 22 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 22 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Kaštelani Pazin

35% 21% 44%

League

36% 21% 43%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Kaštelani Pazin

33% 43% 17%

League

34% 43% 17%

How we counted it

Kaštelani Pazin: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	198 drives + 40 post-ups + 264 catch and shoot + 106 pull-ups = 608

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Selçuk Aslan SF 25 y

Solid41–60

Age: 25
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

47/85 shots 89.8 expected 106 scored ▲ +16.2

Olaf Krieger PG 25 y

Solid41–60

Age: 25
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 4

34/74 shots 75.7 expected 80 scored ▲ +4.3

Zvonko Ball PG 24 y

Solid41–60

Age: 24
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: -0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

40/85 shots 88.7 expected 88 scored ▼ −0.7

Tvrtko Štrukelj SG 29 y

Solid41–60

Age: 29
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: -0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

44/115 shots 118.6 expected 110 scored ▼ −8.6

Mislav Milovanović PF 24 y

Solid41–60

Age: 24
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: -0.3
Contract ends: End of season 3

37/95 shots 97.8 expected 86 scored ▼ −11.8

A man is listed from 50 shots.