Manage a club, start free

Kemičari Kutina

Founded 1960 in Kutina

Dvorana pod Moslavačkom gorom, holding 2 000

⁠

Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

See all terms

Where the points say

Kemičari Kutina's wins match its points

−0.5 wins

Kemičari Kutina's points say about 10 wins in 22 league games. It has 10. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

10Wins so far

10.5Points say

75.7Scored a game

76.2Allowed a game

−0.5Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 22 league games	1 666
Points allowed	1 677
Allowed ÷ scored	1.0066
To the power of 14	1.0965
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 1.0965)	47.70%
× 22 games played	10.49
Wins the points say	10.5 adds up

Wins so far	10
Difference	−0.5 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Kemičari Kutina won 2 and lost 4. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 22. It is final when the season closes.

⁠

The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

See all terms

Strength

Plenty of trips to the line

27.1

Kemičari Kutina attempt 27.1 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 22.4, so 1st of 12.

KEK 27.1 %

League 22.4 %

How we counted it

Kemičari Kutina: 381 tries ÷ 1 407 shots	27.1 %
League mean, 12 clubs	22.4 %
Rank, 12 clubs	1st of 12

Weakness

Cold shooting

49.4 %

Kemičari Kutina shoot 49.4 % effective. The league shoots 51.6 %. That is 11th of 12.

KEK 49.4 %

League 51.6 %

How we counted it

Kemičari Kutina: (601 + ½ × 188) ÷ 1 407	49.4 %
League mean, 12 clubs	51.6 %
Rank, 12 clubs	11th of 12

Weakness

A thin attack

103.9

Kemičari Kutina score 103.9 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 106.6. That is 10th of 12.

KEK 103.9

League 106.6

How we counted it

100 × 1 666 points ÷ 1 604 possessions	103.9
League mean, 12 clubs	106.6
Rank, 12 clubs	10th of 12

Best shot-maker

Zvonko Mijailović

#30 · SF

76/179shots

189points

+1.7vs expected

How we counted it

76 made of 179, 37 of them threes	76/179
Points: 2 × 76 + 37	189
His shots are worth (expected)	187.3
Above expected	189 − 187.3 = +1.7 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 11th of 12

KEK 49.4 %

League 51.6 %

How we counted it

Kemičari Kutina: (601 + ½ × 188) ÷ 1 407	49.4 %
League mean, 12 clubs	51.6 %
Rank, 12 clubs	11th of 12

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 6th of 12

KEK 16.6 %

League 16.6 %

How we counted it

Kemičari Kutina: 266 ÷ 1 604 possessions	16.6 %
League mean, 12 clubs	16.6 %
Rank, 12 clubs	6th of 12

Reboundsown misses won back · 10th of 12

KEK 25.4 %

League 26.2 %

How we counted it

Kemičari Kutina: 196 ÷ (196 + 577)	25.4 %
League mean, 12 clubs	26.2 %
Rank, 12 clubs	10th of 12

Free throwstries per shot · 1st of 12

KEK 27.1 %

League 22.4 %

How we counted it

Kemičari Kutina: 381 tries ÷ 1 407 shots	27.1 %
League mean, 12 clubs	22.4 %
Rank, 12 clubs	1st of 12

⁠

Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

See all terms

Unlucky so far

Your shots have not paid off at all

−50.4

Over 9 games Kemičari Kutina's shots were worth 575.4 points and they scored 525 from the floor: 5.6 a game worse than the league would do from the same shots.

−50.4

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 226 + 73	525
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	575.4
Shot-making	−50.4
A game	−5.60

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 22.

Kemičari Kutina
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive31 % of 242 league shots	18	0.63	11.3
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 373	6	0.70	4.2
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 373	5	0.70	3.5
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 1 518	12	0.70	8.4
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 1 518	6	0.70	4.2
Mid-range · Catch and shoot36 % of 240 league shots	11	0.72	7.9
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 309	1	0.74	0.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 309	1	0.74	0.7
Mid-range · Pull-up34 % of 504 league shots	35	0.69	24.0
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 650	2	0.68	1.4
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 650	3	0.68	2.0
Rim · Drive61 % of 1 193 league shots	95	1.22	115.9
Rim · Drive · second chance59 % of 200 league shots	15	1.18	17.7
Rim · Drive · fast break67 % of 367 league shots	31	1.34	41.4
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 1 812	3	1.24	3.7
Rim · Post-up62 % of 215 league shots	20	1.24	24.7
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 277	3	1.24	3.7
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 277	2	1.24	2.5
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 272	20	1.20	24.0
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 272	4	1.20	4.8
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 62 % of 2 473	6	1.23	7.4
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 62 % of 2 473	2	1.23	2.5
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 62 % of 2 473	2	1.23	2.5
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 3 029	9	1.05	9.5
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 3 029	4	1.05	4.2
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 3 029	6	1.05	6.3
Three · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 3 029	1	1.05	1.0
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 3 029	4	1.05	4.2
Three · Catch and shoot35 % of 1 811 league shots	144	1.04	149.1
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance35 % of 307 league shots	25	1.04	25.9
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break41 % of 222 league shots	12	1.23	14.8
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 2 382	3	1.06	3.2
Three · Pull-up33 % of 350 league shots	31	1.00	31.1
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 463	3	0.99	3.0
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 463	3	0.99	3.0
Three · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 463	1	0.99	1.0
Total adds up	549	1.05	575.4

⁠

Where Kemičari Kutina shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

See all terms

Every shot this season

611 of 611 shots shown

42.1%

257 of 611 from the floor, 10 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 138 / 229 60% · avg 1.9 ft 70 of the 138 makes assisted league 61% 276pts

MID 37 / 112 33% · avg 14.2 ft 15 of the 37 makes assisted league 37% 74pts

THREE 82 / 270 30% · avg 25.2 ft 72 of the 82 makes assisted league 34% 246pts

257 of 611 from the floor, 596 points, + 129 from the line

The dots cover 10 of 22 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

157 of 257 makes were assisted (61%): 70 + 15 + 72.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 9 games whose streams are stored, of 22 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 22 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Kemičari Kutina

37% 18% 45%

League

35% 22% 43%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Kemičari Kutina

35% 9% 40% 16%

League

33% 42% 17%

How we counted it

Kemičari Kutina: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	193 drives + 47 post-ups + 221 catch and shoot + 88 pull-ups = 549

⁠

Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

See all terms

Zvonko Mijailović SF 27 y

Strong61–80

Age: 27
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.4
Contract ends: End of season 4

76/179 shots 187.3 expected 189 scored ▲ +1.7

Damjan Čuk SG 28 y

Solid41–60

Age: 28
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: -0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

45/115 shots 118.7 expected 114 scored ▼ −4.7

Slavko Topalović SG 28 y

Solid41–60

Age: 28
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: -0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

14/59 shots 60.5 expected 33 scored ▼ −27.5

A man is listed from 50 shots.