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Keramikai Panevėžys

Founded 1958 in Panevėžys

Nevėžio krantinės salė, holding 9 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Ahead of its points

Keramikai Panevėžys's wins run ahead of its points

+1.5 wins

Keramikai Panevėžys's points say about 11 wins in 18 league games. It has 12. The table has been a little kind.

12Wins so far

10.5Points say

89.3Scored a game

87.1Allowed a game

+2.2Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 18 league games	1 607
Points allowed	1 568
Allowed ÷ scored	0.9757
To the power of 14	0.7090
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.7090)	58.52%
× 18 games played	10.53
Wins the points say	10.5 adds up

Wins so far	12
Difference	+1.5 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Keramikai Panevėžys won 2 and lost 1. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 18. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

A strong attack

116.9

Keramikai Panevėžys score 116.9 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 114.2. That is 2nd of 10.

KEP 116.9

League 114.2

How we counted it

100 × 1 607 points ÷ 1 375 possessions	116.9
League mean, 10 clubs	114.2
Rank, 10 clubs	2nd of 10

Strength

Plenty of trips to the line

36.3

Keramikai Panevėžys attempt 36.3 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 31.0, so 2nd of 10.

KEP 36.3 %

League 31.0 %

How we counted it

Keramikai Panevėžys: 414 tries ÷ 1 142 shots	36.3 %
League mean, 10 clubs	31.0 %
Rank, 10 clubs	2nd of 10

Strength

Strong on the glass

28.3 %

Keramikai Panevėžys win back 28.3 % of their misses. The league wins back 26.9 %. That is 3rd of 10.

KEP 28.3 %

League 26.9 %

How we counted it

Keramikai Panevėžys: 162 ÷ (162 + 410)	28.3 %
League mean, 10 clubs	26.9 %
Rank, 10 clubs	3rd of 10

Best shot-maker

Sigitas Saulius

#34 · PG

69/124shots

158points

+20.8vs expected

How we counted it

69 made of 124, 20 of them threes	69/124
Points: 2 × 69 + 20	158
His shots are worth (expected)	137.2
Above expected	158 − 137.2 = +20.8 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 7th of 10

KEP 55.5 %

League 56.1 %

How we counted it

Keramikai Panevėžys: (551 + ½ × 166) ÷ 1 142	55.5 %
League mean, 10 clubs	56.1 %
Rank, 10 clubs	7th of 10

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 4th of 10

KEP 18.5 %

League 19.1 %

How we counted it

Keramikai Panevėžys: 254 ÷ 1 375 possessions	18.5 %
League mean, 10 clubs	19.1 %
Rank, 10 clubs	4th of 10

Reboundsown misses won back · 3rd of 10

KEP 28.3 %

League 26.9 %

How we counted it

Keramikai Panevėžys: 162 ÷ (162 + 410)	28.3 %
League mean, 10 clubs	26.9 %
Rank, 10 clubs	3rd of 10

Free throwstries per shot · 2nd of 10

KEP 36.3 %

League 31.0 %

How we counted it

Keramikai Panevėžys: 414 tries ÷ 1 142 shots	36.3 %
League mean, 10 clubs	31.0 %
Rank, 10 clubs	2nd of 10

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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As expected

Right on what the shots are worth

−0.3

Over 9 games Keramikai Panevėžys's shots were worth 632.3 points and they scored 632 from the floor: 0.0 a game in line with what than the league would do from the same shots.

−0.3

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 275 + 82	632
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	632.3
Shot-making	−0.3
A game	−0.03

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 18.

Keramikai Panevėžys
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 232	12	0.72	8.6
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 232	4	0.72	2.9
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 232	7	0.72	5.0
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 41 % of 1 088	18	0.83	14.9
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 41 % of 1 088	2	0.83	1.6
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 41 % of 1 088	2	0.83	1.6
Mid-range · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 41 % of 1 088	19	0.83	15.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 41 % of 1 088	2	0.83	1.6
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 41 % of 1 088	2	0.83	1.6
Mid-range · Pull-up43 % of 366 league shots	49	0.85	41.8
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 507	6	0.83	5.0
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 507	10	0.83	8.3
Rim · Drive61 % of 844 league shots	74	1.21	89.6
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 1 412	9	1.26	11.4
Rim · Drive · fast break69 % of 374 league shots	34	1.39	47.1
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 1 412	6	1.26	7.6
Rim · Post-up61 % of 223 league shots	22	1.22	26.8
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 290	5	1.19	6.0
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 290	2	1.19	2.4
Rim · Post-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 290	1	1.19	1.2
Rim · Catch and shoot60 % of 245 league shots	28	1.19	33.4
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 372	3	1.26	3.8
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 372	6	1.26	7.5
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 372	1	1.26	1.3
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 62 % of 2 238	14	1.24	17.4
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 62 % of 2 238	4	1.24	5.0
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 62 % of 2 238	8	1.24	9.9
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 38 % of 2 357	3	1.13	3.4
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 38 % of 2 357	3	1.13	3.4
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 38 % of 2 357	2	1.13	2.3
Three · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 38 % of 2 357	2	1.13	2.3
Three · Catch and shoot38 % of 1 311 league shots	112	1.15	128.4
Three · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 1 784	23	1.15	26.4
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break39 % of 245 league shots	17	1.16	19.8
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 1 784	5	1.15	5.7
Three · Pull-up38 % of 259 league shots	35	1.15	40.1
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 379	7	1.08	7.5
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 379	11	1.08	11.8
Three · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 379	2	1.08	2.2
Total adds up	572	1.11	632.3

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Where Keramikai Panevėžys shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

572 of 572 shots shown

48.1%

275 of 572 from the floor, 9 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 136 / 217 63% · avg 1.9 ft 74 of the 136 makes assisted league 63% 272pts

MID 57 / 133 43% · avg 14.5 ft 26 of the 57 makes assisted league 41% 114pts

THREE 82 / 222 37% · avg 25.2 ft 74 of the 82 makes assisted league 38% 246pts

275 of 572 from the floor, 632 points, + 194 from the line

The dots cover 9 of 18 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

174 of 275 makes were assisted (63%): 74 + 26 + 74.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 9 games whose streams are stored, of 18 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 18 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Keramikai Panevėžys

38% 23% 39%

League

39% 19% 41%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Keramikai Panevėžys

27% 9% 38% 26%

League

32% 8% 41% 18%

Keramikai Panevėžys lean on pull-ups: 25.5 % of its shots against the league's 18.5 %.

How we counted it

Keramikai Panevėžys: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	156 drives + 52 post-ups + 218 catch and shoot + 146 pull-ups = 572

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Sigitas Saulius PG 31 y

Strong61–80

Age: 31
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 3

69/124 shots 137.2 expected 158 scored ▲ +20.8

Simas Sakalauskas SG 26 y

Strong61–80

Age: 26
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.5
Contract ends: End of season 3

58/117 shots 127.3 expected 137 scored ▲ +9.7

Octave Eser SF 27 y

Strong61–80

Age: 27
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.5
Contract ends: End of season 3

30/63 shots 71.7 expected 69 scored ▼ −2.7

Arvydas Jonaitis SG 30 y

Solid41–60

Age: 30
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: -0.6
Contract ends: End of season 3

22/53 shots 58.0 expected 48 scored ▼ −10.0

A man is listed from 50 shots.