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Klekljarji Žiri

Founded 1974 in Žiri

Dvorana pod Mrzlim vrhom, holding 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Ahead of its points

Klekljarji Žiri's wins run ahead of its points

+2.1 wins

Klekljarji Žiri's points say about 9 wins in 18 league games. It has 11. The table has been a little kind.

11Wins so far

8.9Points say

72.1Scored a game

72.2Allowed a game

−0.2Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 18 league games	1 297
Points allowed	1 300
Allowed ÷ scored	1.0023
To the power of 14	1.0329
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 1.0329)	49.19%
× 18 games played	8.85
Wins the points say	8.9 adds up

Wins so far	11
Difference	+2.1 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Klekljarji Žiri won 4 and lost 2. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 18. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

Plenty of trips to the line

21.4

Klekljarji Žiri attempt 21.4 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 18.9, so 2nd of 10.

KLZ 21.4 %

League 18.9 %

How we counted it

Klekljarji Žiri: 251 tries ÷ 1 173 shots	21.4 %
League mean, 10 clubs	18.9 %
Rank, 10 clubs	2nd of 10

Strength

A strong attack

100.9

Klekljarji Žiri score 100.9 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 99.3. That is 3rd of 10.

KLZ 100.9

League 99.3

How we counted it

100 × 1 297 points ÷ 1 286 possessions	100.9
League mean, 10 clubs	99.3
Rank, 10 clubs	3rd of 10

Weakness

A leaky defence

101.0

Klekljarji Žiri let in 101.0 per 100 trips against the league's 99.3. Lower is better: 8th of 10.

KLZ 101.0

League 99.3

How we counted it

100 × 1 300 allowed ÷ 1 287 possessions	101.0
League mean, 10 clubs	99.3
Rank, 10 clubs	8th of 10

Best shot-maker

Júlio Jaume

#83 · SF

41/69shots

93points

+22.4vs expected

How we counted it

41 made of 69, 11 of them threes	41/69
Points: 2 × 41 + 11	93
His shots are worth (expected)	70.6
Above expected	93 − 70.6 = +22.4 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 4th of 10

KLZ 48.5 %

League 47.5 %

How we counted it

Klekljarji Žiri: (497 + ½ × 144) ÷ 1 173	48.5 %
League mean, 10 clubs	47.5 %
Rank, 10 clubs	4th of 10

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 6th of 10

KLZ 16.3 %

League 15.9 %

How we counted it

Klekljarji Žiri: 210 ÷ 1 286 possessions	16.3 %
League mean, 10 clubs	15.9 %
Rank, 10 clubs	6th of 10

Reboundsown misses won back · 4th of 10

KLZ 27.1 %

League 25.8 %

How we counted it

Klekljarji Žiri: 176 ÷ (176 + 473)	27.1 %
League mean, 10 clubs	25.8 %
Rank, 10 clubs	4th of 10

Free throwstries per shot · 2nd of 10

KLZ 21.4 %

League 18.9 %

How we counted it

Klekljarji Žiri: 251 tries ÷ 1 173 shots	21.4 %
League mean, 10 clubs	18.9 %
Rank, 10 clubs	2nd of 10

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Lucky so far

Your shots have paid off a little

+16.3

Over 8 games Klekljarji Žiri's shots were worth 467.7 points and they scored 484 from the floor: 2.0 a game better than the league would do from the same shots.

+16.3

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 215 + 54	484
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	467.7
Shot-making	+16.3
A game	+2.04

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 18.

Klekljarji Žiri
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive40 % of 227 league shots	21	0.79	16.7
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 317	4	0.74	3.0
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 317	5	0.74	3.7
Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 317	2	0.74	1.5
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 37 % of 1 353	18	0.74	13.3
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 37 % of 1 353	2	0.74	1.5
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 37 % of 1 353	1	0.74	0.7
Mid-range · Post-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 37 % of 1 353	1	0.74	0.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot37 % of 234 league shots	42	0.74	30.9
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 308	7	0.71	5.0
Mid-range · Pull-up38 % of 404 league shots	54	0.75	40.6
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 567	10	0.73	7.3
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 567	16	0.73	11.7
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 567	1	0.73	0.7
Rim · Drive59 % of 809 league shots	70	1.17	82.2
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 1 187	11	1.20	13.2
Rim · Drive · fast break70 % of 217 league shots	12	1.40	16.8
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 1 187	5	1.20	6.0
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 564	17	1.18	20.1
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 564	3	1.18	3.6
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 564	5	1.18	5.9
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 564	3	1.18	3.6
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 564	3	1.18	3.6
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 564	1	1.18	1.2
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 564	3	1.18	3.5
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 564	1	1.18	1.2
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 564	1	1.18	1.2
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 31 % of 2 242	8	0.92	7.3
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 31 % of 2 242	1	0.92	0.9
Three · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 31 % of 2 242	1	0.92	0.9
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 31 % of 2 242	2	0.92	1.8
Three · Catch and shoot30 % of 1 343 league shots	98	0.90	88.7
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance31 % of 216 league shots	18	0.94	17.0
Three · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 30 % of 1 745	10	0.91	9.1
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 30 % of 1 745	2	0.91	1.8
Three · Pull-up31 % of 290 league shots	32	0.93	29.8
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 383	11	0.92	10.1
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 383	1	0.92	0.9
Total adds up	503	0.93	467.7

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Where Klekljarji Žiri shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

503 of 503 shots shown

42.7%

215 of 503 from the floor, 8 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 86 / 135 64% · avg 2.0 ft 35 of the 86 makes assisted league 59% 172pts

MID 75 / 184 41% · avg 14.5 ft 32 of the 75 makes assisted league 36% 150pts

THREE 54 / 184 29% · avg 25.3 ft 43 of the 54 makes assisted league 30% 162pts

215 of 503 from the floor, 484 points, + 81 from the line

The dots cover 8 of 18 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

110 of 215 makes were assisted (51%): 35 + 32 + 43.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 8 games whose streams are stored, of 18 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 18 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Klekljarji Žiri

27% 37% 37%

League

30% 26% 43%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Klekljarji Žiri

28% 9% 38% 26%

League

31% 42% 20%

Klekljarji Žiri lean on pull-ups: 25.8 % of its shots against the league's 19.7 %.

How we counted it

Klekljarji Žiri: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	140 drives + 44 post-ups + 189 catch and shoot + 130 pull-ups = 503

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Júlio Jaume SF 27 y

Solid41–60

Age: 27
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: -0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

41/69 shots 70.6 expected 93 scored ▲ +22.4

Nace Korošec SG 25 y

Modest21–40

Age: 25
Potential: Modest (21–40)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 4

42/101 shots 89.3 expected 99 scored ▲ +9.7

Ivo Ambrožič PG 21 y

Solid41–60

Age: 21
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 3

53/125 shots 115.4 expected 121 scored ▲ +5.6

A man is listed from 50 shots.