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Köfteciler Tekirdağ

Founded 1956 in Tekirdağ

Sahil Yolu Salonu, holding 2 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Ahead of its points

Köfteciler Tekirdağ's wins run ahead of its points

+1.3 wins

Köfteciler Tekirdağ's points say about 6 wins in 18 league games. It has 7. The table has been a little kind.

7Wins so far

5.7Points say

74.2Scored a game

78.4Allowed a game

−4.2Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 18 league games	1 336
Points allowed	1 412
Allowed ÷ scored	1.0569
To the power of 14	2.1697
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 2.1697)	31.55%
× 18 games played	5.68
Wins the points say	5.7 adds up

Wins so far	7
Difference	+1.3 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Köfteciler Tekirdağ won 2 and lost 2. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 18. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Weakness

Few trips to the line

19.0

Köfteciler Tekirdağ attempt 19.0 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 24.0, so 10th of 10.

KOT 19.0 %

League 24.0 %

How we counted it

Köfteciler Tekirdağ: 223 tries ÷ 1 174 shots	19.0 %
League mean, 10 clubs	24.0 %
Rank, 10 clubs	10th of 10

Weakness

Weak on the glass

23.9 %

Köfteciler Tekirdağ win back 23.9 % of their misses. The league wins back 26.6 %. That is 9th of 10.

KOT 23.9 %

League 26.6 %

How we counted it

Köfteciler Tekirdağ: 149 ÷ (149 + 475)	23.9 %
League mean, 10 clubs	26.6 %
Rank, 10 clubs	9th of 10

Weakness

A thin attack

102.3

Köfteciler Tekirdağ score 102.3 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 105.9. That is 8th of 10.

KOT 102.3

League 105.9

How we counted it

100 × 1 336 points ÷ 1 306 possessions	102.3
League mean, 10 clubs	105.9
Rank, 10 clubs	8th of 10

Best shot-maker

Fahri Erkan

#47 · SG

83/170shots

195points

+22.1vs expected

How we counted it

83 made of 170, 29 of them threes	83/170
Points: 2 × 83 + 29	195
His shots are worth (expected)	172.9
Above expected	195 − 172.9 = +22.1 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 7th of 10

KOT 49.8 %

League 50.7 %

How we counted it

Köfteciler Tekirdağ: (505 + ½ × 160) ÷ 1 174	49.8 %
League mean, 10 clubs	50.7 %
Rank, 10 clubs	7th of 10

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 3rd of 10

KOT 16.2 %

League 16.9 %

How we counted it

Köfteciler Tekirdağ: 211 ÷ 1 306 possessions	16.2 %
League mean, 10 clubs	16.9 %
Rank, 10 clubs	3rd of 10

Reboundsown misses won back · 9th of 10

KOT 23.9 %

League 26.6 %

How we counted it

Köfteciler Tekirdağ: 149 ÷ (149 + 475)	23.9 %
League mean, 10 clubs	26.6 %
Rank, 10 clubs	9th of 10

Free throwstries per shot · 10th of 10

KOT 19.0 %

League 24.0 %

How we counted it

Köfteciler Tekirdağ: 223 tries ÷ 1 174 shots	19.0 %
League mean, 10 clubs	24.0 %
Rank, 10 clubs	10th of 10

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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As expected

Right on what the shots are worth

−11.5

Over 8 games Köfteciler Tekirdağ's shots were worth 508.5 points and they scored 497 from the floor: 1.4 a game in line with what than the league would do from the same shots.

−11.5

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 216 + 65	497
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	508.5
Shot-making	−11.5
A game	−1.44

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 18.

Köfteciler Tekirdağ
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 270	17	0.72	12.2
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 270	5	0.72	3.6
Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 270	1	0.72	0.7
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 34 % of 1 149	6	0.67	4.0
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 34 % of 1 149	3	0.67	2.0
Mid-range · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 249	15	0.75	11.2
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 249	4	0.75	3.0
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 249	1	0.75	0.8
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 249	1	0.75	0.8
Mid-range · Pull-up31 % of 363 league shots	51	0.62	31.5
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 484	7	0.61	4.3
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 484	7	0.61	4.3
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 484	2	0.61	1.2
Rim · Drive58 % of 797 league shots	79	1.17	92.2
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 1 222	11	1.19	13.1
Rim · Drive · fast break63 % of 249 league shots	27	1.25	33.8
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 1 222	3	1.19	3.6
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 204	16	1.19	19.0
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 204	1	1.19	1.2
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 204	1	1.19	1.2
Rim · Post-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 204	1	1.19	1.2
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 234	6	1.25	7.5
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 234	3	1.25	3.7
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 234	5	1.25	6.2
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 234	1	1.25	1.3
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 757	12	1.20	14.4
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 757	1	1.20	1.2
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 757	5	1.20	6.0
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 2 166	8	0.99	7.9
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 2 166	3	0.99	3.0
Three · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 2 166	1	0.99	1.0
Three · Catch and shoot33 % of 1 234 league shots	132	0.99	130.6
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance28 % of 218 league shots	21	0.85	17.9
Three · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 1 675	15	0.97	14.5
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 1 675	3	0.97	2.9
Three · Pull-up35 % of 272 league shots	34	1.06	36.0
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 362	5	1.06	5.3
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 362	4	1.06	4.2
Total adds up	518	0.98	508.5

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Where Köfteciler Tekirdağ shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

518 of 518 shots shown

41.7%

216 of 518 from the floor, 8 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 108 / 172 63% · avg 2.1 ft 50 of the 108 makes assisted league 61% 216pts

MID 43 / 120 36% · avg 14.5 ft 15 of the 43 makes assisted league 37% 86pts

THREE 65 / 226 29% · avg 25.1 ft 52 of the 65 makes assisted league 33% 195pts

216 of 518 from the floor, 497 points, + 77 from the line

The dots cover 8 of 18 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

117 of 216 makes were assisted (54%): 50 + 15 + 52.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 8 games whose streams are stored, of 18 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 18 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Köfteciler Tekirdağ

33% 23% 44%

League

35% 23% 43%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Köfteciler Tekirdağ

30% 40% 25%

League

32% 43% 19%

Köfteciler Tekirdağ lean on pull-ups: 24.7 % of its shots against the league's 18.6 %.

How we counted it

Köfteciler Tekirdağ: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	154 drives + 29 post-ups + 207 catch and shoot + 128 pull-ups = 518

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Fahri Erkan SG 22 y

Strong61–80

Age: 22
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.5
Contract ends: End of season 4

83/170 shots 172.9 expected 195 scored ▲ +22.1

Kadir Koyuncu PG 25 y

Solid41–60

Age: 25
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 3

24/52 shots 52.1 expected 52 scored ▼ −0.1

Oğuz Sredojević SF 24 y

Solid41–60

Age: 24
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: -0.3
Contract ends: End of season 2

19/50 shots 50.4 expected 46 scored ▼ −4.4

Gernot König PF 26 y

Solid41–60

Age: 26
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: -0.1
Contract ends: End of season 1

17/53 shots 51.8 expected 40 scored ▼ −11.8

Lykourgos Pavlović SG 28 y

Solid41–60

Age: 28
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: -0.3
Contract ends: End of season 3

15/51 shots 49.8 expected 34 scored ▼ −15.8

A man is listed from 50 shots.