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Kondukteri Mladenovac

Founded 1951 in Mladenovac

Dvorana kod Selters banje, holding 2 000

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Behind its points

Kondukteri Mladenovac's wins trail its points

−1.0 wins

Kondukteri Mladenovac's points say about 5 wins in 13 league games. It has 4. The table has been a little unkind.

4Wins so far

5.0Points say

76.6Scored a game

79.2Allowed a game

−2.5Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 13 league games	996
Points allowed	1 029
Allowed ÷ scored	1.0331
To the power of 14	1.5783
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 1.5783)	38.79%
× 13 games played	5.04
Wins the points say	5.0 adds up

Wins so far	4
Difference	−1.0 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Kondukteri Mladenovac won 1 and lost 2. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 13. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Weakness

A leaky defence

107.4

Kondukteri Mladenovac let in 107.4 per 100 trips against the league's 103.6. Lower is better: 12th of 14.

KMA 107.4

League 103.6

How we counted it

100 × 1 029 allowed ÷ 958 possessions	107.4
League mean, 14 clubs	103.6
Rank, 14 clubs	12th of 14

Weakness

Cold shooting

49.5 %

Kondukteri Mladenovac shoot 49.5 % effective. The league shoots 50.3 %. That is 10th of 14.

KMA 49.5 %

League 50.3 %

How we counted it

Kondukteri Mladenovac: (362 + ½ × 124) ÷ 856	49.5 %
League mean, 14 clubs	50.3 %
Rank, 14 clubs	10th of 14

Weakness

Careless with the ball

17.5 %

Kondukteri Mladenovac give it away on 17.5 % of trips against the league's 17.4 %. Fewer is better: 10th of 14.

KMA 17.5 %

League 17.4 %

How we counted it

Kondukteri Mladenovac: 168 ÷ 960 possessions	17.5 %
League mean, 14 clubs	17.4 %
Rank, 14 clubs	10th of 14

Best shot-maker

Dejan Çil

#29 · PG

39/79shots

89points

+5.1vs expected

How we counted it

39 made of 79, 11 of them threes	39/79
Points: 2 × 39 + 11	89
His shots are worth (expected)	83.9
Above expected	89 − 83.9 = +5.1 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 10th of 14

KMA 49.5 %

League 50.3 %

How we counted it

Kondukteri Mladenovac: (362 + ½ × 124) ÷ 856	49.5 %
League mean, 14 clubs	50.3 %
Rank, 14 clubs	10th of 14

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 10th of 14

KMA 17.5 %

League 17.4 %

How we counted it

Kondukteri Mladenovac: 168 ÷ 960 possessions	17.5 %
League mean, 14 clubs	17.4 %
Rank, 14 clubs	10th of 14

Reboundsown misses won back · 8th of 14

KMA 25.4 %

League 25.7 %

How we counted it

Kondukteri Mladenovac: 124 ÷ (124 + 364)	25.4 %
League mean, 14 clubs	25.7 %
Rank, 14 clubs	8th of 14

Free throwstries per shot · 9th of 14

KMA 23.8 %

League 25.1 %

How we counted it

Kondukteri Mladenovac: 204 tries ÷ 856 shots	23.8 %
League mean, 14 clubs	25.1 %
Rank, 14 clubs	9th of 14

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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As expected

Right on what the shots are worth

+1.8

Over 6 games Kondukteri Mladenovac's shots were worth 389.2 points and they scored 391 from the floor: 0.3 a game in line with what than the league would do from the same shots.

+1.8

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 167 + 57	391
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	389.2
Shot-making	+1.8
A game	+0.30

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 13.

Kondukteri Mladenovac
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive34 % of 224 league shots	17	0.69	11.7
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 315	2	0.67	1.3
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 315	2	0.67	1.3
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 36 % of 1 251	5	0.71	3.6
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 36 % of 1 251	2	0.71	1.4
Mid-range · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 258	11	0.86	9.5
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 258	2	0.86	1.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 258	2	0.86	1.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 258	1	0.86	0.9
Mid-range · Pull-up36 % of 391 league shots	28	0.72	20.0
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 524	4	0.69	2.7
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 524	1	0.69	0.7
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 524	3	0.69	2.1
Rim · Drive60 % of 819 league shots	63	1.19	75.1
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 1 290	10	1.20	12.0
Rim · Drive · fast break60 % of 267 league shots	21	1.20	25.2
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 1 290	3	1.20	3.6
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 1 850	8	1.21	9.7
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 1 850	2	1.21	2.4
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 1 850	1	1.21	1.2
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 258	9	1.18	10.6
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 258	2	1.18	2.4
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 258	7	1.18	8.2
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 258	1	1.18	1.2
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 1 850	7	1.21	8.5
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 2 216	12	0.98	11.8
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 2 216	5	0.98	4.9
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 2 216	2	0.98	2.0
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 2 216	1	0.98	1.0
Three · Catch and shoot33 % of 1 218 league shots	97	0.98	94.6
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance34 % of 202 league shots	15	1.02	15.4
Three · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 1 645	16	0.97	15.5
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 1 645	1	0.97	1.0
Three · Pull-up32 % of 307 league shots	20	0.97	19.3
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 407	4	1.00	4.0
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 407	1	1.00	1.0
Total adds up	388	1.00	389.2

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Where Kondukteri Mladenovac shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

388 of 388 shots shown

43.0%

167 of 388 from the floor, 6 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 80 / 134 60% · avg 2.0 ft 50 of the 80 makes assisted league 61% 160pts

MID 30 / 80 38% · avg 15.2 ft 14 of the 30 makes assisted league 37% 60pts

THREE 57 / 174 33% · avg 25.1 ft 47 of the 57 makes assisted league 32% 171pts

167 of 388 from the floor, 391 points, + 79 from the line

The dots cover 6 of 13 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

111 of 167 makes were assisted (66%): 50 + 14 + 47.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 6 games whose streams are stored, of 13 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 13 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Kondukteri Mladenovac

35% 21% 45%

League

35% 24% 42%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Kondukteri Mladenovac

35% 42% 18%

League

33% 41% 19%

How we counted it

Kondukteri Mladenovac: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	137 drives + 19 post-ups + 164 catch and shoot + 68 pull-ups = 388

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Dejan Çil PG 25 y

Strong61–80

Age: 25
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 4

39/79 shots 83.9 expected 89 scored ▲ +5.1

Miloje Mrkonjić SF 27 y

Solid41–60

Age: 27
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: -0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

22/58 shots 53.7 expected 57 scored ▲ +3.3

Sima Kocjan SG 27 y

Solid41–60

Age: 27
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

45/114 shots 116.0 expected 110 scored ▼ −6.0

A man is listed from 50 shots.