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Kopači Lazarevac

Founded 1966 in Lazarevac

Dvorana kod Površinskog kopa, holding 2 000

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Kopači Lazarevac's wins match its points

−0.4 wins

Kopači Lazarevac's points say about 4 wins in 13 league games. It has 4. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

4Wins so far

4.4Points say

73.6Scored a game

77.2Allowed a game

−3.5Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 13 league games	957
Points allowed	1 003
Allowed ÷ scored	1.0481
To the power of 14	1.9295
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 1.9295)	34.14%
× 13 games played	4.44
Wins the points say	4.4 adds up

Wins so far	4
Difference	−0.4 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Kopači Lazarevac won 2 and lost 2. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 13. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Weakness

Cold shooting

48.0 %

Kopači Lazarevac shoot 48.0 % effective. The league shoots 50.3 %. That is 13th of 14.

KOL 48.0 %

League 50.3 %

How we counted it

Kopači Lazarevac: (355 + ½ × 101) ÷ 845	48.0 %
League mean, 14 clubs	50.3 %
Rank, 14 clubs	13th of 14

Weakness

A thin attack

100.2

Kopači Lazarevac score 100.2 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 103.6. That is 11th of 14.

KOL 100.2

League 103.6

How we counted it

100 × 957 points ÷ 955 possessions	100.2
League mean, 14 clubs	103.6
Rank, 14 clubs	11th of 14

Weakness

Few trips to the line

22.0

Kopači Lazarevac attempt 22.0 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 25.1, so 11th of 14.

KOL 22.0 %

League 25.1 %

How we counted it

Kopači Lazarevac: 186 tries ÷ 845 shots	22.0 %
League mean, 14 clubs	25.1 %
Rank, 14 clubs	11th of 14

Best shot-maker

Ljubinko Stanonik

#61 · SG

60/131shots

144points

+22.1vs expected

How we counted it

60 made of 131, 24 of them threes	60/131
Points: 2 × 60 + 24	144
His shots are worth (expected)	121.9
Above expected	144 − 121.9 = +22.1 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 13th of 14

KOL 48.0 %

League 50.3 %

How we counted it

Kopači Lazarevac: (355 + ½ × 101) ÷ 845	48.0 %
League mean, 14 clubs	50.3 %
Rank, 14 clubs	13th of 14

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 5th of 14

KOL 17.3 %

League 17.4 %

How we counted it

Kopači Lazarevac: 165 ÷ 955 possessions	17.3 %
League mean, 14 clubs	17.4 %
Rank, 14 clubs	5th of 14

Reboundsown misses won back · 7th of 14

KOL 25.4 %

League 25.7 %

How we counted it

Kopači Lazarevac: 116 ÷ (116 + 340)	25.4 %
League mean, 14 clubs	25.7 %
Rank, 14 clubs	7th of 14

Free throwstries per shot · 11th of 14

KOL 22.0 %

League 25.1 %

How we counted it

Kopači Lazarevac: 186 tries ÷ 845 shots	22.0 %
League mean, 14 clubs	25.1 %
Rank, 14 clubs	11th of 14

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Unlucky so far

Your shots have not paid off

−28.9

Over 6 games Kopači Lazarevac's shots were worth 386.9 points and they scored 358 from the floor: 4.8 a game worse than the league would do from the same shots.

−28.9

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 158 + 42	358
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	386.9
Shot-making	−28.9
A game	−4.82

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 13.

Kopači Lazarevac
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive34 % of 224 league shots	14	0.69	9.6
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 315	6	0.67	4.0
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 315	5	0.67	3.4
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 36 % of 1 251	19	0.71	13.6
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 36 % of 1 251	1	0.71	0.7
Mid-range · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 258	24	0.86	20.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 258	4	0.86	3.4
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 258	1	0.86	0.9
Mid-range · Pull-up36 % of 391 league shots	50	0.72	35.8
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 524	9	0.69	6.2
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 524	8	0.69	5.5
Rim · Drive60 % of 819 league shots	52	1.19	62.0
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 1 290	11	1.20	13.2
Rim · Drive · fast break60 % of 267 league shots	17	1.20	20.4
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 1 290	1	1.20	1.2
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 1 850	12	1.21	14.5
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 1 850	1	1.21	1.2
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 1 850	2	1.21	2.4
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 258	11	1.18	13.0
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 258	3	1.18	3.5
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 258	3	1.18	3.5
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 258	1	1.18	1.2
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 1 850	4	1.21	4.8
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 1 850	3	1.21	3.6
Rim · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 1 850	1	1.21	1.2
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 2 216	2	0.98	2.0
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 2 216	4	0.98	3.9
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 2 216	2	0.98	2.0
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 2 216	1	0.98	1.0
Three · Catch and shoot33 % of 1 218 league shots	69	0.98	67.3
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance34 % of 202 league shots	14	1.02	14.3
Three · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 1 645	9	0.97	8.7
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 1 645	1	0.97	1.0
Three · Pull-up32 % of 307 league shots	26	0.97	25.2
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 407	6	1.00	6.0
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 407	5	1.00	5.0
Three · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 407	1	1.00	1.0
Total adds up	403	0.96	386.9

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Where Kopači Lazarevac shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

403 of 403 shots shown

39.2%

158 of 403 from the floor, 6 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 70 / 122 57% · avg 2.1 ft 38 of the 70 makes assisted league 61% 140pts

MID 46 / 141 33% · avg 14.5 ft 29 of the 46 makes assisted league 37% 92pts

THREE 42 / 140 30% · avg 25.2 ft 31 of the 42 makes assisted league 32% 126pts

158 of 403 from the floor, 358 points, + 70 from the line

The dots cover 6 of 13 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

98 of 158 makes were assisted (62%): 38 + 29 + 31.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 6 games whose streams are stored, of 13 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 13 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Kopači Lazarevac

30% 35% 35%

League

35% 24% 42%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Kopači Lazarevac

28% 9% 35% 28%

League

33% 41% 19%

Kopači Lazarevac lean on pull-ups: 28.0 % of its shots against the league's 19.5 %.

How we counted it

Kopači Lazarevac: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	114 drives + 36 post-ups + 140 catch and shoot + 113 pull-ups = 403

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Ljubinko Stanonik SG 25 y

Solid41–60

Age: 25
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.4
Contract ends: End of season 4

60/131 shots 121.9 expected 144 scored ▲ +22.1

Miloje Mikić PG 25 y

Solid41–60

Age: 25
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

25/56 shots 54.8 expected 56 scored ▲ +1.2

A man is listed from 50 shots.