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Kožari Bela Palanka

Founded 1992 in Bela Palanka

Dvorana kod Remezijane, holding 1 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Kožari Bela Palanka's wins match its points

+0.3 wins

Kožari Bela Palanka's points say about 6 wins in 13 league games. It has 6. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

6Wins so far

5.7Points say

79.5Scored a game

80.9Allowed a game

−1.4Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 13 league games	1 034
Points allowed	1 052
Allowed ÷ scored	1.0174
To the power of 14	1.2733
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 1.2733)	43.99%
× 13 games played	5.72
Wins the points say	5.7 adds up

Wins so far	6
Difference	+0.3 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Kožari Bela Palanka won 2 and lost 1. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 13. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Weakness

Careless with the ball

17.8 %

Kožari Bela Palanka give it away on 17.8 % of trips against the league's 16.8 %. Fewer is better: 11th of 14.

KBP 17.8 %

League 16.8 %

How we counted it

Kožari Bela Palanka: 172 ÷ 967 possessions	17.8 %
League mean, 14 clubs	16.8 %
Rank, 14 clubs	11th of 14

Weakness

Weak on the glass

25.1 %

Kožari Bela Palanka win back 25.1 % of their misses. The league wins back 26.1 %. That is 11th of 14.

KBP 25.1 %

League 26.1 %

How we counted it

Kožari Bela Palanka: 111 ÷ (111 + 332)	25.1 %
League mean, 14 clubs	26.1 %
Rank, 14 clubs	11th of 14

Weakness

A thin attack

106.9

Kožari Bela Palanka score 106.9 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 107.6. That is 10th of 14.

KBP 106.9

League 107.6

How we counted it

100 × 1 034 points ÷ 967 possessions	106.9
League mean, 14 clubs	107.6
Rank, 14 clubs	10th of 14

Best shot-maker

Andrew Becker

#7 · SG

40/63shots

91points

+21.0vs expected

How we counted it

40 made of 63, 11 of them threes	40/63
Points: 2 × 40 + 11	91
His shots are worth (expected)	70.0
Above expected	91 − 70.0 = +21.0 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 8th of 14

KBP 52.3 %

League 52.1 %

How we counted it

Kožari Bela Palanka: (375 + ½ × 127) ÷ 839	52.3 %
League mean, 14 clubs	52.1 %
Rank, 14 clubs	8th of 14

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 11th of 14

KBP 17.8 %

League 16.8 %

How we counted it

Kožari Bela Palanka: 172 ÷ 967 possessions	17.8 %
League mean, 14 clubs	16.8 %
Rank, 14 clubs	11th of 14

Reboundsown misses won back · 11th of 14

KBP 25.1 %

League 26.1 %

How we counted it

Kožari Bela Palanka: 111 ÷ (111 + 332)	25.1 %
League mean, 14 clubs	26.1 %
Rank, 14 clubs	11th of 14

Free throwstries per shot · 7th of 14

KBP 23.6 %

League 24.8 %

How we counted it

Kožari Bela Palanka: 198 tries ÷ 839 shots	23.6 %
League mean, 14 clubs	24.8 %
Rank, 14 clubs	7th of 14

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Unlucky so far

Your shots have not paid off

−25.8

Over 6 games Kožari Bela Palanka's shots were worth 415.8 points and they scored 390 from the floor: 4.3 a game worse than the league would do from the same shots.

−25.8

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 168 + 54	390
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	415.8
Shot-making	−25.8
A game	−4.30

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 13.

Kožari Bela Palanka
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 284	19	0.77	14.6
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 284	1	0.77	0.8
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 284	1	0.77	0.8
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 42 % of 1 141	18	0.83	15.0
Mid-range · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 45 % of 225	10	0.90	9.0
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 45 % of 225	2	0.90	1.8
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 45 % of 225	1	0.90	0.9
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 45 % of 225	1	0.90	0.9
Mid-range · Pull-up40 % of 357 league shots	21	0.81	16.9
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 483	3	0.81	2.4
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 483	2	0.81	1.6
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 483	1	0.81	0.8
Rim · Drive62 % of 893 league shots	59	1.24	73.2
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 1 362	13	1.23	16.1
Rim · Drive · fast break65 % of 297 league shots	26	1.29	33.6
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 1 362	1	1.23	1.2
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 52 % of 209	19	1.04	19.8
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 52 % of 209	3	1.04	3.1
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 52 % of 209	1	1.04	1.0
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 235	9	1.27	11.4
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 235	1	1.27	1.3
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 235	4	1.27	5.1
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 1 902	7	1.21	8.5
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 1 902	3	1.21	3.6
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 2 298	8	1.04	8.3
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 2 298	2	1.04	2.1
Three · Catch and shoot34 % of 1 325 league shots	90	1.03	92.3
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance34 % of 226 league shots	16	1.02	16.4
Three · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 1 754	13	1.04	13.5
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 1 754	4	1.04	4.2
Three · Pull-up38 % of 287 league shots	26	1.15	29.9
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 377	3	1.15	3.4
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 377	2	1.15	2.3
Total adds up	390	1.07	415.8

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Where Kožari Bela Palanka shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

390 of 390 shots shown

43.1%

168 of 390 from the floor, 6 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 91 / 146 62% · avg 1.9 ft 42 of the 91 makes assisted league 60% 182pts

MID 23 / 80 29% · avg 14.2 ft 14 of the 23 makes assisted league 39% 46pts

THREE 54 / 164 33% · avg 25.3 ft 50 of the 54 makes assisted league 34% 162pts

168 of 390 from the floor, 390 points, + 73 from the line

The dots cover 6 of 13 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

106 of 168 makes were assisted (63%): 42 + 14 + 50.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 6 games whose streams are stored, of 13 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 13 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Kožari Bela Palanka

37% 21% 42%

League

36% 21% 43%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Kožari Bela Palanka

33% 11% 39% 17%

League

34% 41% 18%

Kožari Bela Palanka lean on post-ups: 10.5 % of its shots against the league's 7.0 %.

How we counted it

Kožari Bela Palanka: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	130 drives + 41 post-ups + 151 catch and shoot + 68 pull-ups = 390

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Andrew Becker Injured SG 27 y

Strong61–80

Age: 27
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.4
Contract ends: End of season 3

40/63 shots 70.0 expected 91 scored ▲ +21.0

Christopher Andrews SF 19 y

Solid41–60

Age: 19
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

37/89 shots 94.4 expected 92 scored ▼ −2.4

Igor Milenković SF 22 y

Strong61–80

Age: 22
Potential: Elite (81–99)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 4

37/91 shots 96.5 expected 92 scored ▼ −4.5

A man is listed from 50 shots.