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Kozolci Žalec

Founded 1962 in Žalec

Dvorana ob Savinji, holding 2 000

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Kozolci Žalec's wins match its points

+0.1 wins

Kozolci Žalec's points say about 10 wins in 18 league games. It has 10. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

10Wins so far

9.9Points say

78.3Scored a game

77.2Allowed a game

+1.1Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 18 league games	1 409
Points allowed	1 389
Allowed ÷ scored	0.9858
To the power of 14	0.8186
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.8186)	54.99%
× 18 games played	9.90
Wins the points say	9.9 adds up

Wins so far	10
Difference	+0.1 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Kozolci Žalec won 2 and lost 1. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 18. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

A strong attack

106.9

Kozolci Žalec score 106.9 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 105.2. That is 2nd of 10.

KOZ 106.9

League 105.2

How we counted it

100 × 1 409 points ÷ 1 318 possessions	106.9
League mean, 10 clubs	105.2
Rank, 10 clubs	2nd of 10

Weakness

Cold shooting

49.6 %

Kozolci Žalec shoot 49.6 % effective. The league shoots 50.3 %. That is 9th of 10.

KOZ 49.6 %

League 50.3 %

How we counted it

Kozolci Žalec: (526 + ½ × 176) ÷ 1 237	49.6 %
League mean, 10 clubs	50.3 %
Rank, 10 clubs	9th of 10

Strength

Safe with the ball

15.2 %

Kozolci Žalec give it away on 15.2 % of trips against the league's 16.4 %. Fewer is better: 2nd of 10.

KOZ 15.2 %

League 16.4 %

How we counted it

Kozolci Žalec: 200 ÷ 1 318 possessions	15.2 %
League mean, 10 clubs	16.4 %
Rank, 10 clubs	2nd of 10

Best shot-maker

Thibaut Falade

#78 · SG

43/69shots

102points

+29.6vs expected

How we counted it

43 made of 69, 16 of them threes	43/69
Points: 2 × 43 + 16	102
His shots are worth (expected)	72.4
Above expected	102 − 72.4 = +29.6 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 9th of 10

KOZ 49.6 %

League 50.3 %

How we counted it

Kozolci Žalec: (526 + ½ × 176) ÷ 1 237	49.6 %
League mean, 10 clubs	50.3 %
Rank, 10 clubs	9th of 10

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 2nd of 10

KOZ 15.2 %

League 16.4 %

How we counted it

Kozolci Žalec: 200 ÷ 1 318 possessions	15.2 %
League mean, 10 clubs	16.4 %
Rank, 10 clubs	2nd of 10

Reboundsown misses won back · 3rd of 10

KOZ 28.1 %

League 26.3 %

How we counted it

Kozolci Žalec: 195 ÷ (195 + 498)	28.1 %
League mean, 10 clubs	26.3 %
Rank, 10 clubs	3rd of 10

Free throwstries per shot · 8th of 10

KOZ 20.3 %

League 22.2 %

How we counted it

Kozolci Žalec: 251 tries ÷ 1 237 shots	20.3 %
League mean, 10 clubs	22.2 %
Rank, 10 clubs	8th of 10

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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As expected

Right on what the shots are worth

−1.9

Over 8 games Kozolci Žalec's shots were worth 553.9 points and they scored 552 from the floor: 0.2 a game in line with what than the league would do from the same shots.

−1.9

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 233 + 86	552
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	553.9
Shot-making	−1.9
A game	−0.24

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 18.

Kozolci Žalec
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive37 % of 216 league shots	19	0.74	14.1
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 317	1	0.76	0.8
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 317	4	0.76	3.0
Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 317	1	0.76	0.8
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 38 % of 1 258	15	0.76	11.4
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 38 % of 1 258	1	0.76	0.8
Mid-range · Post-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 38 % of 1 258	1	0.76	0.8
Mid-range · Catch and shoot38 % of 203 league shots	16	0.76	12.1
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 280	6	0.77	4.6
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 280	4	0.77	3.1
Mid-range · Pull-up41 % of 373 league shots	35	0.83	28.9
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 498	5	0.79	3.9
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 498	6	0.79	4.7
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 498	2	0.79	1.6
Rim · Drive58 % of 819 league shots	94	1.17	110.0
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 1 251	25	1.21	30.3
Rim · Drive · fast break64 % of 249 league shots	23	1.28	29.4
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 1 251	4	1.21	4.8
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 1 765	20	1.23	24.6
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 1 765	3	1.23	3.7
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 1 765	1	1.23	1.2
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 58 % of 225	12	1.16	14.0
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 58 % of 225	4	1.16	4.7
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 58 % of 225	2	1.16	2.3
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 1 765	8	1.23	9.8
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 1 765	1	1.23	1.2
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 34 % of 2 194	8	1.01	8.1
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 34 % of 2 194	3	1.01	3.0
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 34 % of 2 194	2	1.01	2.0
Three · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 34 % of 2 194	1	1.01	1.0
Three · Catch and shoot35 % of 1 291 league shots	111	1.05	116.1
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance28 % of 207 league shots	28	0.84	23.5
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break32 % of 204 league shots	24	0.97	23.3
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 1 728	5	1.01	5.0
Three · Pull-up31 % of 254 league shots	34	0.94	32.1
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 345	6	0.95	5.7
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 345	5	0.95	4.7
Three · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 345	3	0.95	2.8
Total adds up	543	1.02	553.9

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Where Kozolci Žalec shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

543 of 543 shots shown

42.9%

233 of 543 from the floor, 8 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 116 / 197 59% · avg 1.8 ft 64 of the 116 makes assisted league 61% 232pts

MID 31 / 116 27% · avg 14.7 ft 12 of the 31 makes assisted league 38% 62pts

THREE 86 / 230 37% · avg 25.1 ft 75 of the 86 makes assisted league 32% 258pts

233 of 543 from the floor, 552 points, + 90 from the line

The dots cover 8 of 18 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

151 of 233 makes were assisted (65%): 64 + 12 + 75.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 8 games whose streams are stored, of 18 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 18 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Kozolci Žalec

36% 21% 42%

League

34% 24% 42%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Kozolci Žalec

34% 39% 19%

League

32% 43% 18%

How we counted it

Kozolci Žalec: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	185 drives + 41 post-ups + 212 catch and shoot + 105 pull-ups = 543

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Thibaut Falade SG 22 y

Strong61–80

Age: 22
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.4
Contract ends: End of season 1

43/69 shots 72.4 expected 102 scored ▲ +29.6

Ožbej Španović SG 32 y

Solid41–60

Age: 32
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 4

39/87 shots 87.7 expected 98 scored ▲ +10.3

Enej Mašić SF 21 y

Solid41–60

Age: 21
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

41/83 shots 88.5 expected 95 scored ▲ +6.5

Vid Špeh PG 22 y

Solid41–60

Age: 22
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

23/59 shots 58.1 expected 56 scored ▼ −2.1

Cristóbal Palmeira SG 27 y

Solid41–60

Age: 27
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: -0.3
Contract ends: End of season 3

17/58 shots 58.5 expected 42 scored ▼ −16.5

A man is listed from 50 shots.